The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
This might have to do with what Fisher was talking about where there is demand for delivery for the prompt month vs back going into expiration. which is less then 2 weeks. The HJ spread today is doing nothing (month 2 vs 3) and the Feb/Dec got killed today. I do think that front spread will stay strong as we roll forward. I don't think that is saying anything fundamental though. I think there is a big fear out there for possibly bankruptcies and firms that have long term OTC contracts in oil could be left hanging if their counterparty goes under. I suspect the front spreads will be a good buy especially going into expiration. Look at this DZ chart, made new lows today.
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This WTI is scary though. Even when China popped, oil could barely uptick. I think there is a massive liquidation coming soon from someone going under and the market is expecting their reserves to get dumped on the market at firesale prices. I think once we start to see this liquidation process unfold, we are going to see some nice bargains here.
OR go sideways with a 2 or 3 handle for the next several years as the dollar strengthen against currencies ..
Yeah I've said this before what is really killing these guys is not lower prices but time. The longer we stay down here regardless if it's 25, 35 or 45, it just is not sustainable for a lot of upstream companies. Heaven forbid rates should go higher then the flood gates really open. That's what nobody is talking about. These zero interest rates have really given these producers a lifeline. I guess the good news is if we go into a recession, rates will stay low but then demand gets crushed. However if the economy strengthens, then rates go higher and they can't roll their debts. In other words, not a very good long trade. LOL. At some point, you get a flush though and you have to jump in. Probably still a year away.
Will be interesting to see what happens to a lot of companies once their hedged drilling contracts north of $50 per barrel expire. I suspect much of the reason we haven't seen a meaningful production cut to date is due to these drillers bringing as much oil to market as they possibly can under these hedged contracts.
This is a little.......scary.
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750
You can hear a pin drop.
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750
You can hear a pin drop.
wtf, that's crazy.
Has anyone looked at refining their equities numberline scoring system to incorporate additional data?
To me it seems that if a stock scores a +6 on its 5-day numberline during a week where the S&P loses 5%, that is much more significant than if it put up the same +6 during a time where the S&P was ripping higher, and being aware of that dislocation could be valuable going forward
Conversely, if a stock has a +20 reading on its 30-day numberline, and then drops from a +10 to a +4 on its 5-day, and during the last 3 trading days the stock's price has fallen 15% on big volume, that "additional" information might be telling you to run for the hills, even though your 30-day and 5-day lines are still relatively strong.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
To me it seems that if a stock scores a +6 on its 5-day numberline during a week where the S&P loses 5%, that is much more significant than if it put up the same +6 during a time where the S&P was ripping higher, and being aware of that dislocation could be valuable going forward
Conversely, if a stock has a +20 reading on its 30-day numberline, and then drops from a +10 to a +4 on its 5-day, and during the last 3 trading days the stock's price has fallen 15% on big volume, that "additional" information might be telling you to run for the hills, even though your 30-day and 5-day lines are still relatively strong.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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