Hmm his advise to hold oil ETF for 18 months is horrible especially if we get to that real steep contango hoop is talking about
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Forgot to say that we wicked nicely of the monthly A down on the 6th almost to the tick.
Hmm his advise to hold oil ETF for 18 months is horrible especially if we get to that real steep contango hoop is talking about
Well yeah I agree however I think he is implying a substantial move. I agree a small return to normal will not generate a profit with the contango. If oil does start making a large move higher it will eventually go into backwardation and the oil etf will have a positive roll yield. So keep that in mind. He also tends to be very early with his ideas so set the egg timer for 6 months and revisit the trade. LOL.
It traded up to my monthly A up at 2.50. The number line is thinking about re-setting.
You really need to look for the possible residual effects. I like what Bass is doing by looking for banks that have loan exposure to China in the Asian region. That's one way to play China in general. So you want to look for stuff that is highly correlated to a weaker Yuan. I don't have any ideas off the top of my head except to say that where we are now, the world does not want to see the Yuan weaken more and that if such weakening occurs, volatility in the world will probably stay bid and go higher.
Hmm one idea could be to try your luck with timing and buy BABA when real trouble with china banking sector starts. By that time it will probably be down a lot and dropping so buyer will need to prepare his ACD
Currency devaluation usually lifts stock market up and promotes exports in a longer term so BABA should be a good bet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...endline-points-to-more-downside-risk-analysis
Asain peers charts and comments in this article seem to imply they will respond to China devaluation. Worse than past Asain crisis? Hell in a handbasket?
Asain peers charts and comments in this article seem to imply they will respond to China devaluation. Worse than past Asain crisis? Hell in a handbasket?
Of the top 50 stocks in the SP-500 with the best Relative Strength (scanned using an IBD based code in TC2000) 11 are just nearly dead on their monthly A down levels. Examples are
AMZN: Mo A Down at 608.90 and it’s right there.
ATVI: Mo A Down at 35.66 and Thursday Friday wicks are there.
GOOG: Mo A Down at 713.45 and there is Friday’s wick.
MSFT: Mo A Down at 52.11 and …… there’s a couple of wicks.
And so on with TAP, FB, CB, ADBD, SBUX and CAM.
You have about the same number with the next 50 and so on. That’s a large number not normally seen on the 5th trading day of the month.
A breather here and some pop ups at these volatility levels wouldn’t be a surprise.
AMZN: Mo A Down at 608.90 and it’s right there.
ATVI: Mo A Down at 35.66 and Thursday Friday wicks are there.
GOOG: Mo A Down at 713.45 and there is Friday’s wick.
MSFT: Mo A Down at 52.11 and …… there’s a couple of wicks.
And so on with TAP, FB, CB, ADBD, SBUX and CAM.
You have about the same number with the next 50 and so on. That’s a large number not normally seen on the 5th trading day of the month.
A breather here and some pop ups at these volatility levels wouldn’t be a surprise.