The ACD Method

rt5909 · Dec 15, 2015

Uh oh, do you know the same guy I know, Mav? had a very interesting call today. Guy I was on the phone with said same thing...50 bps tomorrow...and followed with 150-200 is his range for total rate by Dec 16. Oddly enough, this was coming from the Ag lending realm. I've heard the 1.5 for next year bandied about before, but the 50 and 200 were range highs I had not heard. He ended the call warning me about the old days in corn....sheesh I sure hope not. I started trading when corn was in the final years of the "old" days. 30 cent entire year range sure makes today not seem so bad. I'm too young to remember the bulk of those days though...sure I'll have a lot of adapting to do if this all plays out.

Edit: to be honest, I thought he was just trying to make a "make a name for myself if I'm right" call in making a guess for tomorrow...but maybe there's something to it....his arguments however, were based more on US being in so much better shape than everywhere else than necessarily US on a never ending great streak.

hoop121 · Dec 16, 2015

rt5909 · Dec 16, 2015

hoop121 said:
welp

That's what I was thinking....took a yellen speech to get a noticeable rotation higher in nat gas

FCXoptions · Dec 16, 2015

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-echo-impacts

Wonder if this will have much of an impact on nat gas

rt5909 said:
That's what I was thinking....took a yellen speech to get a noticeable rotation higher in nat gas

Edit: Looking at the 10 day forecast for a few cities, it doesn't seem like it will affect the east very much

SteveM · Dec 16, 2015

Great call on the equities rally upon rate hike announcement, Mav.

I found it a bit surprising that treasury futures didn't fall further. Any thoughts on treasuries going forward?

Maverick74 · Dec 16, 2015

SteveM said:
Great call on the equities rally upon rate hike announcement, Mav.

I found it a bit surprising that treasury futures didn't fall further. Any thoughts on treasuries going forward?

Nah, not what I was expecting. I think if we would have gotten the 50 bp raise, we would have launched. I still think this market goes parabolic into the next 4 hikes.

redbaron1981 · Dec 16, 2015

Well I got nice A ups across the board today along with confirming weekly A ups.

Here are my 5 day number lines which are nearly all in agreement with the weekly confirmations.

DIA 3
SPY 3
IJH 0
IJR 4
IYT-2

Is everyone else seeing similar to me?

kinggyppo · Dec 16, 2015

Maverick74 said:
Nah, not what I was expecting. I think if we would have gotten the 50 bp raise, we would have launched. I still think this market goes parabolic into the next 4 hikes.

good call on the bullish move on equities..........the call on yen was still the best
any thoughts on chk? natty?

OneFive · Dec 17, 2015

koolaid said:
How do we justify a bullish rally when our NL are all negative and confirmed downside. The only thing I see that could be bullish is the ISEE sentiment index hitting in the low extremes on Friday.

Hmm, maybe a good point.

Maverick74 · Dec 17, 2015

My number lines are NOT all negative, only ES. However my vol indicators are pretty bearish and have been for two weeks now.