The ACD Method

DT3 said:
How is 50 bullish exactly? 50 point hike = huge dollar moves in fx land. More headwinds for overseas companies, weaker commodity prices, and not to mention the economy is barely growing at 2% a year. If they do raise 50 (they won't) we're testing lows of August.
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I think it's about expectations...50 signals that the FED is really confident on the trajectory of the US economy.
 
Wall street expectations are the only thing that matters. Very few on Wall Street think the fed should be raising to begin with a 50 point hike would cause massive selling.

Anyway this is all hearsay, I've listened to her testimony before congress and her prior fed calls they will not be raising by 50 points.
 
DT3 said:
Wall street expectations are the only thing that matters. Very few on Wall Street think the fed should be raising to begin with a 50 point hike would cause massive selling.

Anyway this is all hearsay, I've listened to her testimony before congress and her prior fed calls they will not be raising by 50 points.
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Nah, I strongly disagree. The market has been wandering back and forth the past few months. It really needs someone with authority like the FED to say that everything is looking good and nothing says that more than a 50 bp hike.

If you looked back at Sept...everyone thought a no-hike was bullish but investor were more concerned that there was really no direction from the FED and it sold off.

No one knows for sure what will happen tomorrow...I personally don't think 50 will happen either....but if it's truly a 50 bp...I'm guessing this market is gonna go to the sky considering the massive put positions that are out there and expiring soon. A lot of people are short.
 
Maverick74 said:
Can't talk now.....a good source says 50 bp tomorrow!!!!!!! Not 25.....50!
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Kind of a surprising statement for this thread. Regardless of the final print, 50bp would provide plenty of action for all. The knee jerks would be good and hard. I suspect the recent queasiness in the high yield space might make even the most ardent FED hawk think twice about 50.
 
Ok, admittedly my source is Zerohedge, but not just ZH, there is some grumbling over the level
of difficulty to conduct therse operations this week so that Friday the fed funds rate prints
within the target range.
It would be a Ross Perot moment. A giant sucking sound if deposits moved to the fed could earn 50+ basis point. Interest rate differentials globally. Imagine the conversions to USD and those effects. Am I on track here?
Maybe , if there were any market turbulance around this event, that big money
would be thrilled to deposit at the fed for +.30'or 20 bp. .......and so on, swamping capacity and showing that the fed cant perform intended operations.
Tin hat conspiracy guys would say Drahgi kew this all along and Yellin would do the heavy lifting to Euro at parity.
 
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eurusdzn said:
Ok, admittedly my source is Zerohedge, but not just ZH, there is some grumbling over the level
of difficulty to conduct therse operations this week so that Friday the fed funds rate prints
within the target range.
It would be a Ross Perot moment. A giant sucking sound if deposits moved to the fed could earn 50+ basis point. Interest rate differentials globally. Imagine the conversions to USD and those effects. Am I on track here?
Maybe , if there were any market turbulance around this event, that big money
would be thrilled to deposit at the fed for +.30'or 20 bp. .......and so on, swamping capacity and showing that the fed cant perform intended operations.
Tin hat conspiracy guys would say Drahgi kew this all along and Yellin would do the heavy lifting to Euro at parity.
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I actually think that is very plausible since Drahgi doesn't want to explicitly ease and with the FED meeting coming up....and the US in a position to hike....that this would just be very complimentary to everyone's main goal.
 
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