like most things on ET, here I am repeating whats already been said LOL apologies for the copycat post
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
like most things on ET, here I am repeating whats already been said LOL apologies for the copycat post
like most things on ET, here I am repeating whats already been said LOL apologies for the copycat post
No repeating is good. People take their eyes off this stuff and they miss it. Natty's 30 day has been so weak that the yearly A down was a foregone conclusion. My 30 day widowmaker spread has been deeply negative for some time as well.
Yeah the scenario I laid out several weeks back about a parabolic blowoff top early next year seems to be playing out perfectly. New all time highs are a few weeks away.
Stocks have been shooting up and down 15-30% in one session over earnings or other news that do not warrant such reaction. Valeant lost like 50% in one trading session over a report some guy published from his home office? Is this all HFT related? Is this a sign of crazy high valuations and jittery feet? I feel like the scenario you and others have laid out may becoming more and more likely.
From a valuation standpoint stocks are not expensive, they're not cheap either so yea there's probably more upside to equities especially in a zero interest rate environment.
As for Valeant Citron is a highly respected short t sell side firm that has a huge following. The questions they've raised are major red flags. Clearly some type of fraud was taking place.
As for Valeant Citron is a highly respected short t sell side firm that has a huge following. The questions they've raised are major red flags. Clearly some type of fraud was taking place.
From a valuation standpoint stocks are not expensive, they're not cheap either so yea there's probably more upside to equities especially in a zero interest rate environment.
As for Valeant Citron is a highly respected short t sell side firm that has a huge following. The questions they've raised are major red flags. Clearly some type of fraud was taking place.
I disagree...even if you priced SP500 in terms of euro and yen to account for currency fluctuations and relative valuations, it is still on the expensive side. However, I won't argue that it may have farther up to go...being expensive has never stopped people from buying before.
As for Valeant, I agree with your point. A drug manufacturer that has that kind of a relationship with a specialty pharmacy is sketchy. There is definitely a conflict of interest.
I disagree...even if you priced SP500 in terms of euro and yen to account for currency fluctuations and relative valuations, it is still on the expensive side. However, I won't argue that it may have farther up to go...being expensive has never stopped people from buying before.
As for Valeant, I agree with your point. A drug manufacturer that has that kind of a relationship with a specialty pharmacy is sketchy. There is definitely a conflict of interest.
Try not to think of stocks in terms of p/e ratios. Think of them in terms of opportunity cost. What are the alternatives and what are there forward synthetic yields. On the margin, equities probably have the best value, but this has to be re-evaluated everyday. Why? Because as other prices change, the relative value changes. Personally valuation decisions don't factor in for me, but if I was a long term investor, they most certainly would.
It looks like Nov Natty is going to go off the boards near contract lows pushing a one handle. Amazing.
It looks like Nov Natty is going to go off the boards near contract lows pushing a one handle. Amazing.
Wouldn't be worth much for the expiring contract to tag yearly a down on its way out. Needs to drag z to that point and with a 22+ carry its gotta blow out.
Try not to think of stocks in terms of p/e ratios. Think of them in terms of opportunity cost. What are the alternatives and what are there forward synthetic yields. On the margin, equities probably have the best value, but this has to be re-evaluated everyday. Why? Because as other prices change, the relative value changes. Personally valuation decisions don't factor in for me, but if I was a long term investor, they most certainly would.
Mac makes a great point. In the world I come from...physical commodity trading...it's simply merchandising. Buy low sell high is only half the equation. What is replacement cost? If you bought something at 3, sold it at 4, but replacement cost is 4.5 did you really win?
Reminds me of new guys trading cattle futures recently when cattle were making limit moves every few days. They were so ecstatic about covering at the limit. Nevermind that the spreads and synthetics had the "real" market another buck lower.....
Try not to think of stocks in terms of p/e ratios. Think of them in terms of opportunity cost. What are the alternatives and what are there forward synthetic yields. On the margin, equities probably have the best value, but this has to be re-evaluated everyday. Why? Because as other prices change, the relative value changes. Personally valuation decisions don't factor in for me, but if I was a long term investor, they most certainly would.
Mav, you see anything interesting developing in FX land? Looks like USD/JPY is ready to explode on upside...hitting my monthly Aup right now but it is towards the end of the month...