The ACD Method

justrading said:
It isn't necessary. Fisher complicates things because he has the right idea, but expresses it through a cluttered mind.

There are only 3 states that you need to capture, and I score them as 1, 2 and 3. The correlation with his idea is almost perfect.

People get hung up on the scoring and the detail. Understand the concept.
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May I ask what the 3 states are that correctly model Fisher's intentions?
Thanks.
 
hoop121 said:
sooo, about those new highs...

any change of opinion on equities over the next few months?
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Sorry guys, been a little busy lately. Nothing has really changed from my lens. I got a risk off signal on 9/23 in two of my vol indicators around 1960 in ES. Those are very short term though. I haven't been bullish equities, more neutral then anything. My number lines right now have the TF and YM positively confirmed, XIV still confirmed negative, and ES and NQ neutral.

I really don't see any reason to be long equities or short. I just think the signal to noise ratio in that area is pretty bad right now. I have been pounding the table on long USD/CAD and short GBP/JPY where I think there are stronger drivers there then in equities (and they are confirmed).

ES at the monthly A down but for better or worse has been trading in a 100 point range back and forth the last month or two.

EDIT: YM actually re-set for me. So only TF is confirmed positive.
 
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kinggyppo said:
So Mav what is a deflationary China saying about the global economy?:)
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Well....I don't think it's bullish. LOL. I do think it's more an emerging market story though. I think Kyle Bass has the right idea. Long US/Short China or any emerging market index.

The NOB spread has been very smooth here in the US. The curve is still steepening which it should NOT be doing ahead of further deflation. Also our economy is almost at full employment now. We're going to see a rate hike soon here and the US will be flooded with emerging market cash. We might actually start providing the "carry" in the carry trade soon. :)
 
test_user said:
Thank you Robert for the reply.
I checked the incorrect examples and noticed that your numbers are off by one.
E.g. 4.14 is a C up + D ("F-you" day) and is rightly valued as "0". But 4.15 and 4.16 close in OR and incorrectly valued as "3".
Given the rule that close in the OR is always "0", the incorrect figures would be 4.15, 4.16, 4.19, 4.20, and ½ of 4.22.

This makes more sense now, thank you.

I wonder why they didn't just simply define the calculation in a few simple sentences or at least given the explanation in the FAQ on the official website.
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FWIW, I don't use Fisher's scoring system. I use my own. Not saying his is bad or wrong, you just have to fine tune it yourself.
 
Second attempt on close yesterday at the monthly a down in heating oil that we have at right around 150 in X. Bouncing today and number lines that are a mess... wk 5 of chop in energies is getting old haha. honestly though...doubt we get a double bottom on a MaD, even with cracks as "cheap" as they are right now
 
NOB up another 15 ticks today. This curve trade is really perplexing. I think it's really showing that the US economy is actually doing fine and the risk premia is emerging markets.
 
Maverick74 said:
FWIW, I don't use Fisher's scoring system. I use my own. Not saying his is bad or wrong, you just have to fine tune it yourself.
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How important is the number line indicator for your decision to enter (or abstain from entering) a trade of specific direction? Do you follow it mechanically? Or do you ignore it sometimes and take discretionary action (e.g. going long even if the number line indicates a downtrend)?
 
I don't fight number lines. Number lines filter out quality. So all things being equal I'm always going to focus my attention on the confirmed number line trades. This will keep you away from the choppy trades and focus on stuff that has the potential for follow through. I believe trade selection is one of the biggest reasons why guys struggle to make money. Some traders focus on only one product or they fall in love with a trade idea and don't let it go. The number lines will force you to become patient and wait for good setups. It will also force you to be patient when trades are working.
 
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