The ACD Method

lol, yeah i saw that. i've learned that when there's about two days to expiration, the crude trades start looking at next month and don't really pay attention to prompt any longer.

what do you think about buying some call fly's into tomorrow's number? WTI is coiled pretty tight right here and sitting just above the the Adown. You can buy a 49.5/50/50.5 (i know it's tight, just first thing i pulled up) fly right now for like .04

I don't really see anything all that exciting to do right now in the energy complex. Number lines are all back to neutral. Prices at current levels are kind of in the middle of ranges. Vol is neither all that cheap or expensive. I like to construct trades on the edges. I think there will be more opportunities in the near future.

Meanwhile Bonds are about to confirm neg on the 30 day possibly on or before Fed day! Talk about interesting timing. The entire Yen complex is starting to crack again. And risk assets are acting like they want to squeeze which lines up with what the Yen is telling us as well as Bonds. All the pieces are coming together in the macro landscape. There is going to be some very interesting setups here.
 
hoop, any insight on these quality issues with oil on the gulf? saw that its all running heavy, tough to get "light" at spec

i'm not entirely sure, but i think it might have something to do with LLS trading at a premium to Brent right now. I think the play right now is to sell LLS and then ship over North Sea.
 
i know some traders at some major shops in Houston who were all calling for arb to go back to 10. but i've got a good friend that's been telling me we are going to parity for about a month now. no demand for Brent and and nowhere to put it so Brent spreads have been getting sold off hard for a while now.
 
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