Yeah I think some here forget just how discretionary this methodology is. It is the furthest thing from a red light/green light system. If one is willing to put in the work, the payoffs can be huge. But there in lies the rub....work. LOL.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Yeah I think some here forget just how discretionary this methodology is. It is the furthest thing from a red light/green light system. If one is willing to put in the work, the payoffs can be huge. But there in lies the rub....work. LOL.
I agree the method is descretionary to some degree but if i asked mav he would reply saying the method is pretty systematic from his view point but from outlooker it would look very decretionary but the main value add from my perspective is not knowing how mav does his numberlines or OR but rather his understanding and his thought process in developing certain decision from their in my opnion you gain insight into some of the experience and just mybe allow you to think differently about certain ideas you have held that may have been incorrect. ( apologise if this doesnt make sense multi tasking lol)It may be futile to attempt to explain an analysis technique that is largely discretionary. If you are fortunate to have the natural talent to use a technique that requires discretionary judgment or some special intuition you have developed with years of experience, you might not realize that it is beyond the grasp of the mere mortal (the rest of us).
Mav it really ironic i can remember watching mark fisher seminar videos and thinking i really undertstood what he said but thinking about i was way off but the more i stare at my numberlines and the market it resembles large puzzle just go to understand what fits where and do it faster than every one else.
Here is a good analogy. I like football comparisons. So Tom Brady (suspension aside) has a very systematic approach to preparing for football. I'm sure he has a very regimented diet. A very structured offseason workout routine. I'm sure during the season he has a very set schedule about what days and for how long he reviews film for upcoming games, how he prepares during the week all the way down to his pre-game meal. So that part is the "ACD". But once the game starts, there is nothing systematic about what he does. He is a "discretionary" quarterback. He gets a play called in from the offensive coordinator. He lines up and looks at the defense and how they are positioned. And he reads their formation and anticipates the coverage. As the play develops he has to think on his feet and adjust to what is happening around him. He has to leverage his experience, his preparation and his physical abilities to make a play. THAT is what trading is and THAT is why so few can do it. ACD is how we prepare for the game on Sunday. But when the game starts, you gotta play the game.
Mav the anlogy reminds of video of phil ivey ( i know some traders don't like the anology of poker but both games involve incomplete information ) did rare 1 explaining that he prepares systematically for various different outcome plays thousands of hands / gains personal insights into various players habits and then when it come to the table just reacts to the other players behviours adjusting on the go and checking their behviour alongside his past insights and adjusting all the time.
Mav the anlogy reminds of video of phil ivey ( i know some traders don't like the anology of poker but both games involve incomplete information ) did rare 1 explaining that he prepares systematically for various different outcome plays thousands of hands / gains personal insights into various players habits and then when it come to the table just reacts to the other players behviours adjusting on the go and checking their behviour alongside his past insights and adjusting all the time.
Yup, that is another good analogy. Poker players often prepare very analytically. They know the odds and probabilities cold. They understand theory. They understand pot odds. But when the cards are dealt, they become poke players.
Mav have u seen that video of jim simons discussing about effcient market hypothesis and gives small insight into his trading. He says some interesting stuffMav the anlogy reminds of video of phil ivey ( i know some traders don't like the anology of poker but both games involve incomplete information ) did rare 1 explaining that he prepares systematically for various different outcome plays thousands of hands / gains personal insights into various players habits and then when it come to the table just reacts to the other players behviours adjusting on the go and checking their behviour alongside his past insights and adjusting all the time.
Yup. The lecture he gave at MIT? That was VERY good.
He gave another 1 to 1 interview with some mathmatics guy gets interesting half throught where he goes tht effecient market hypothesis doesnt exist suggest tht anamolies exist in past data also states tht he uses small various egdes ( no1 notices) tht wouldnt be able to predict by themslefs but together allows them to predict with very high degree , he also states tht trends are anomalies tht shouldnt exist but do and states it also nulifies effcient market hypothesis. He also states that market has very high barriers of entry might just talking about his own business or business model.
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Found a bunch of his stuff on YouTube. Saved for weekend viewing, thanks for highlighting.He gave another 1 to 1 interview with some mathmatics guy gets interesting half throught where he goes tht effecient market hypothesis doesnt exist suggest tht anamolies exist in past data also states tht he uses small various egdes ( no1 notices) tht wouldnt be able to predict by themslefs but together allows them to predict with very high degree , he also states tht trends are anomalies tht shouldnt exist but do and states it also nulifies effcient market hypothesis. He also states that market has very high barriers of entry might just talking about his own business or business model.