The ACD Method

Maverick74 · Jul 2, 2015

kinggyppo said:
what's interesting is color coding, so red is a lucky color in china, here we say "see red" which is a negative in accounting statements. When your screen is red that means your losing money usually, would be interesting to see what colors their trading screens are. So is yinn bullish and yang bearish?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...03059/Stock-market-Were-in-the-yin-phase.html

They have options too. I can adjust the yang better that way.

DT3 · Jul 3, 2015

My 30 day on SPY is at -11 it hit -9 couple days ago. This is the first time its confirmed since early Jan

My 30 day on GLD is at 10 and just confirmed

Don't know the last time it confirmed the NL but I know it hasn't for the past 6 months.

Mav if you keep track of the futures can you post your NL would like to see if your seeing the same thing

Maverick74 · Jul 3, 2015

DT3 said:
My 30 day on SPY is at -11 it hit -9 couple days ago. This is the first time its confirmed since early Jan

My 30 day on GLD is at 10 and just confirmed Don't know the last time it confirmed the NL but I know it hasn't for the past 6 months.

Mav if you keep track of the futures can you post your NL would like to see if your seeing the same thing

ES confirmed for me as well. I tend to discount it a little until all the indices confirm. The Dow also confirmed for me. In my humble opinion the small stocks should lead on the way down if we are really going to see some follow through. So watch that Russel like a hawk.

ignl · Jul 3, 2015

Yesterday I've got trend reversal trade signal in NZD.USD. Today I decided to give it a shot near daily A down - it dropped so much for so long, maybe it will popup up a bit. However its a risky trade because numberlines are not that good (-8 for me) and made W A down so need to be cautious. On the other hand W A down was on Thursday so a bit late and in such a strong trend I noticed that NLs very often lag a bit, so I thought its worth a shot. And if it makes A down easy to take a loss. I know its kinda risky, but lets try

Anyone watching it? What do you think?

ignl · Jul 3, 2015

ignl said:
Yesterday I've got trend reversal trade signal in NZD.USD. Today I decided to give it a shot near daily A down - it dropped so much for so long, maybe it will popup up a bit. However its a risky trade because numberlines are not that good (-8 for me) and made W A down so need to be cautious. On the other hand W A down was on Thursday so a bit late and in such a strong trend I noticed that NLs very often lag a bit, so I thought its worth a shot. And if it makes A down easy to take a loss. I know its kinda risky, but lets try Anyone watching it? What do you think?

OK out, not today to look smart trading against a trend

Sorry for such a short term call..

Maverick74 · Jul 3, 2015

I'm going to have to spend some more time on number lines. I still think there is a lot of confusion on how to properly use them.

Maverick74 · Jul 3, 2015

RBOB/HO closes at the highs on the week.

wow12 · Jul 3, 2015

Maverick74 said:
3) Hedging has to do with prospect theory again. So risk aversion theory is how and why insurance exists in the marketplace. It's been proven mathematically that consumers are willing to "overpay" for a policy to gain the positive utility that comes from having insurance. This explains how insurance companies make their profits. They can't drastically over price, but you can solve for the optimal level of what a consumer is "willing" to overpay and that is the level the market chooses. So one's willingness to hedge is determined by the utility they require to hold a certain amount of risk.

Mav alot of what you where expressing here is also explained in video thought it might be of use (hedge-fund that basically extracts alpha from people paying extra for insurance)

Subduing the enemy: The Ins and Outs of Volatility Trading

logicaltrader · Jul 3, 2015

Maverick74 said:
RBOB/HO closes at the highs on the week.

+70 today. Its amazing how crude is almost at my monthly A dn yet rbob hasnt even cracked a new low on the week. This is what I was hoping would happen Tuesday and now I wish I had bigger balls to stay in the short, at least HO, rather than puke the whole thing :-(. In general the cracks have been strong too. Not sure if thats because of the holiday. I am bullish rbob now depending upon how we do on Monday. If this is holiday euphoria keeping the cracks up then we will know then otherwise I am hoping we fail the monthly A dn in crude and see +2600 on the rb/ho spread.

logicaltrader · Jul 3, 2015

Maverick74 said:
I'm going to have to spend some more time on number lines. I still think there is a lot of confusion on how to properly use them.

That would be awesome. I am manually doing the NLs for outrights, cal spreads, cracks and the rb/ho spread as we speak. I got sick of tweaking the code I had for calculating NLs and figured it will be more accurate and faster if I did this manually :-)

. I am making it so that I track both the 30 day and the 5 day with and without resets. I actually am not sure where the reset should be for products but I will try various combinations and see what makes sense. RB has a physical spec difference for summer and winter grades so I will have to take that into account I think. I have been going over past posts during this time but any more thoughts you can share on this topic would be just awesome.