Correlation is only useful over longer periods of time. Correlation has a variance just like everything else.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
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Correlation is only useful over longer periods of time. Correlation has a variance just like everything else.
Are we all good on number lines? There were some questions awhile back on their usefulness or their purpose. Not sure if you guys hammered that out amongst yourselves or not. 
thanks for the reply Mav , i think some posters took my question as a attack on the acd method which far from what i intended i guess they misunderstood the question , i agree that time play's major role to helps us find value and the allocating resources more efficiently , the question asked was mainly taking concepts involved within physics i.e time and asking whether those concepts could be applied within the financial markets or could they be overlapped possibly
The chapter on Entries. Yes sir.
I didn't ask it well. Say it's evening and a strongly trending stock has pulled back and failed nicely at a monthly A down. You think it's a puke and you decide to buy. I was wondering what your order was: market, buy stop etc.
Thanks
I have to admit, it's a little disappointing there is not more discussion on this thread when I am not posting. There is close to 1000 pages of content here for you guys to share, discuss and improve upon. One of my goals of this thread was to use this thread to show you guys a way to look at the world and the markets through a different lens and ultimately to share that vision with others on that thread. In other words, communal research. For some odd reason that is not happening.
I'm going to open the floor here and ask for feedback. You can be as honest and straightforward (it would really be helpful if you were) as you wish. Is it that most of you guys simply are not active traders in the market and this thread is just recreational reading? Are you long term investors and feel that while this thread is fun to read, it does not offer anything for long term investors? Is it too complicated? Too simple? I'm really curious. I understand posting content on ET in general is down across the board. Hell, even P&R appears to be in a bear market. Please chime in. Thanks!
I'm going to open the floor here and ask for feedback. You can be as honest and straightforward (it would really be helpful if you were) as you wish. Is it that most of you guys simply are not active traders in the market and this thread is just recreational reading? Are you long term investors and feel that while this thread is fun to read, it does not offer anything for long term investors? Is it too complicated? Too simple? I'm really curious. I understand posting content on ET in general is down across the board. Hell, even P&R appears to be in a bear market. Please chime in. Thanks!
1) having spent a lifetime making things simpler and better for a living, once I clearly understood Fisher's scoring concepts, I decided having what, 16 criteria(?), was not necessary. I reduced it to 6, did a correlation analysis with the original scoring system, and got something like 0.93 across a range of instruments. My A confirms at +5/-5. My 5 day confirms at +3/-3. Since people here talk about the number rather than the status, I speak a different language.
2) from the 2 books on currencies you recommended, I got the concept of measuring value of all currencies against a single entity, gold. Up to now I'm not sure how to use it as values don't shift much. All saw your suggestion, nobody in the history of this thread has talked about it. Maybe it is useless, I don't know.
3) from the 2 books and my knowledge of ACD, I created my own index to compare 23 currencies against each other. Just as you have proprietary research that you have openly said is not for sharing, mine falls in the same category.
Beyond that, what can I contribute? If someone asks the same question for the 21st time in this thread and I see it is genuine and not the fruit of a lazy feed me mentality, I answer the question. This is not a thread about calls as you made very clear. I could have said I found indices boring as hell for quite a while now and won't touch them, but there are people here who want to trade indices every day and really don't give a shit what I think about them. They might if you told them, but I'm not you.
So yeah, I guess I'm saying within the limits I have described, tell me how and I'll be happy to contribute. But if you want to talk about +5 or +10, sorry, I have no idea what that is anymore.
Edit: sorry, forgot to mention, when I talk of 5 or 3, those are rounded values. I added something to the basic scoring.
2) from the 2 books on currencies you recommended, I got the concept of measuring value of all currencies against a single entity, gold. Up to now I'm not sure how to use it as values don't shift much. All saw your suggestion, nobody in the history of this thread has talked about it. Maybe it is useless, I don't know.
3) from the 2 books and my knowledge of ACD, I created my own index to compare 23 currencies against each other. Just as you have proprietary research that you have openly said is not for sharing, mine falls in the same category.
Beyond that, what can I contribute? If someone asks the same question for the 21st time in this thread and I see it is genuine and not the fruit of a lazy feed me mentality, I answer the question. This is not a thread about calls as you made very clear. I could have said I found indices boring as hell for quite a while now and won't touch them, but there are people here who want to trade indices every day and really don't give a shit what I think about them. They might if you told them, but I'm not you.
So yeah, I guess I'm saying within the limits I have described, tell me how and I'll be happy to contribute. But if you want to talk about +5 or +10, sorry, I have no idea what that is anymore.
Edit: sorry, forgot to mention, when I talk of 5 or 3, those are rounded values. I added something to the basic scoring.
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OK...thanks for the feedback. Maybe I wasn't being clear so I'll give an example. At this point, everyone on here either knows or doesn't know what they need to know from ACD itself so discussing A levels page after page makes no sense. When I use the word research, let me give you an example. Hell, I'll give you 10. For starters, maybe you found an interesting website that shares useful economic info that has not been posted before. Two, maybe you saw an interesting article on Bloomberg about the Japanese debt crisis...perfect...share it. Maybe you noticed one of your currency pairs is acting strangely (ACD levels don't matter) just bring it to others attention, maybe someone here knows why. Maybe there is an interesting interview coming up on CNBC (Fisher himself!). I usually miss it unless someone mentions it. Maybe there is a weird correlation you are noticing right now between Japanese Bonds and German Bunds...post it. Communal implies sharing. And research is just that...research. People can share number lines if they want or A levels but I'm more interested in hearing what you find unique about a given number line or A level.
I don't mind posting on here 10,000 times and sharing my like's work with people. I have never asked for money and never will. What I would like in return is if anyone feels they have benefited from the content here, please pay it forward. You are not required to of course. Just as a course of etiquette. Too many here focus on the minutia...the exact A level or the exact number line level when the most important thing is what you actually are "seeing". Remember, number lines and A levels are just your lens. The picture that develops in your mind is where the value is. I'm not looking for someone to say buy oil now! But rather, something interesting one sees developing. I'm personally far more interested in the bigger picture landscape then the granular "I faded a nice failed A down today in ES". We reap what we sow in life. But the land is not ours. Let's not forget that.
Ah, you want to broaden the discussion. Can do. I see a tonne of useful stuff that I read, register and forget. Sharing is easy.
Let me begin. The AUD strengthened after the recent FOMC. I was long GBP.AUD and EUR.AUD, I got stopped out from one and closed the other before it hit my stop. I use wide stops that I measure in ATR. Is there some reason the Aussie would strengthen after that FOMC press conference? I don't want to keep making the same mistake. Anyone?
I'll contribute something useful but likely obvious to most here...
Using ACD intraday trading 30-year ultrabond futures (futures symbol /UB) has been a steady money maker over the last 6 weeks. To the tune of $8,000 per contract traded.
Also, I've noticed buying/selling breakouts of the 5 day high/low at the beginning of each month and holding til end of month is profitable about 60% of the time in markets like silver, nat gas, etc.
Personally, I've gotten a ton out of Mav and others postings here; however, something extremely disheartening was Mav's post where he said:
"ACD is just to be used to build upon, anyone who just trades it outright as laid out in Fisher's book will get killed, Mark told me himself."
As a small retail futures trader trying to become a disciplined profitable trader, I was hoping that I can start tracking how ACD is performing in various markets, start trading those "hot" markets, and make a small fortune.
To be honest, in reading Mr. Fisher's book/watching his lectures, he does make it appear that this is possible, to which he told Mav off the record it is not. Just feels a bit disheartening, that's all. Maybe I want things to be "too easy" though.
Using ACD intraday trading 30-year ultrabond futures (futures symbol /UB) has been a steady money maker over the last 6 weeks. To the tune of $8,000 per contract traded.
Also, I've noticed buying/selling breakouts of the 5 day high/low at the beginning of each month and holding til end of month is profitable about 60% of the time in markets like silver, nat gas, etc.
Personally, I've gotten a ton out of Mav and others postings here; however, something extremely disheartening was Mav's post where he said:
"ACD is just to be used to build upon, anyone who just trades it outright as laid out in Fisher's book will get killed, Mark told me himself."
As a small retail futures trader trying to become a disciplined profitable trader, I was hoping that I can start tracking how ACD is performing in various markets, start trading those "hot" markets, and make a small fortune.
To be honest, in reading Mr. Fisher's book/watching his lectures, he does make it appear that this is possible, to which he told Mav off the record it is not. Just feels a bit disheartening, that's all. Maybe I want things to be "too easy" though.
Fair point, I'm sure Mav will weigh in.