The ACD Method

[Maverick74]

Hello Mav,

Say you wake up in a room (no you don’t know how you got there) and you’re chained to a desk and chair with a few monitors showing whatever charts you want to pull up with ACD lines just like you have always used. You have to make three trades a day (only stocks or ETF’s) that can last from seconds to multiple days and you have to be profitable or the evil taskmaster is going to do real REAL bad things to you. Perform well ..... and you will wake up home in your easy chair.

What do you do? What do you look for? How do you pick some candidates to trade?

I have many more questions but I'll stop for now.

How's your general health Mav? I do hope you're doing well.

Buy pukes in strong number lines. Very simple. Puking action is almost ALWAYS bullish. If I had to guess maybe 95% of the time. Markets don't roll over on pukes. Buy em up. Same goes for spikes in weak number lines. That strategy will outperform the indices for the next 100 years but requires patience and work. Thank God most people have neither.

My health couldn't be better. Knock on wood. Thanks for asking Robert!

 

[eurusdzn]

Two things: Volatility and FX flows.

Stock volatility is nil. Yet, as you had been pounding the table regarding currency volatility
Months or (year?) ago i assume you cast cast a wider net than stocks. In fact i know you do.
Bonds as well are volatile. Much more interestimg than stocks.
Any thoughts to share on major pairs and treasuries and european bonds?

 

[Maverick74]

Stock volatility is nil. Yet, as you had been pounding the table regarding currency volatility
Months or (year?) ago i assume you cast cast a wider net than stocks. In fact i know you do.
Bonds as well are volatile. Much more interestimg than stocks.
Any thoughts to share on major pairs and treasuries and european bonds?

Japan is obviously in focus right now with the Yen pairs going vertical yet again. Also Europe is very interesting. Currencies don't get volatile for no reason. I don't think most people understand just how much pressure it takes to move pairs a meaningful distance. It's not like stocks where SHAK can squeeze 10% on air. If the EURO or Yen crosses are moving 2% it's not because grandma is liquidating her IRA. It's because someone is moving 100's of millions of dollars FAST. They are paying a huge premium relatively speaking for that liquidity so if they could afford to work the order they would. The fact they are choosing not to do that should tell you all you need to know.

Bond volatility could get very ugly soon. The notional amount of exposure through all the various derivatives is beyond mind boggling. There will be books written about it when it's all said and done.

 

[Maverick74]

One major change I would mention is that I express a lot of my trades via options vs the underlying and in the energy markets a lot of my opinions are expressed through the forward curves. I'm always looking to optimize where I can.

 

[kinggyppo]

Japan is obviously in focus right now with the Yen pairs going vertical yet again. Also Europe is very interesting. Currencies don't get volatile for no reason. I don't think most people understand just how much pressure it takes to move pairs a meaningful distance. It's not like stocks where SHAK can squeeze 10% on air. If the EURO or Yen crosses are moving 2% it's not because grandma is liquidating her IRA. It's because someone is moving 100's of millions of dollars FAST. They are paying a huge premium relatively speaking for that liquidity so if they could afford to work the order they would. The fact they are choosing not to do that should tell you all you need to know.

Bond volatility could get very ugly soon. The notional amount of exposure through all the various derivatives is beyond mind boggling. There will be books written about it when it's all said and done.

nice to see you back Mav, unless you are posting this from lower Wacker Drive, what are your thoughts on this grexit, its a meandering situation which is creating some vol around the euro stock indexes, is there any data on probability of an exit?

 

[ignl]

Man, this place really is dead. LOL. Didn't I put enough fish in the lake?

I wanted to stop posting at 20k posts and did and then for some odd reason, my post count mysteriously jumped to 20,001 (nice trick Baron).

It actually felt good being away from ET for awhile. I took a quick look around and noticed not much has changed. Just like Livermore said about markets never changing.

So going forward this is my new rule. I will re-visit this thread one day a week on Sundays. I'll respond to any questions or comments and maybe add a few of my own. This will keep me two involved but not so much where I need to pay for ET therapy. LOL.

An interesting observation about life:

In the real world, people do change with time. Events, circumstances, environment, etc all change people. Slowly, the way water can carve and change a solid rock over time. If you see an old friend you haven't seen in years, you will notice they are older, heavier, maybe sick, maybe softer spoken. If you visit the neighborhood you grew up you will find this was moved, that changed, something got built, etc. Old schools are torn down, new ones put up. And so you as a person evolve and change with the world.

When you come to ET though, there are no buildings, no old bridges we remember crossing. Since most of us don't know what we look like, there is no evidence that time even exists here. Hell, we aren't even 100% sure who we are talking to; new aliases, old aliases. But when one wonders back to ET, it's as if this place is frozen in time. The same questions about the same topics on trading. The same arguments and same debates in chit chat. The same macho bravado and chest pumping. It's very odd to experience from a psychological standpoint. We as humans are meant to evolve. Our survival depends on it. Yet this site does not. The aesthetics have changed on the outside (mostly good) but the inside is mostly the same. A deeper question and possibly an interesting case study would be to investigate the long term effects of social media and forums on one's mental health. Social media in general does not allow one to evolve and instead stunts all possible growth from happening. What are the ramifications of this on society? Deep thoughts....

Anyway....it's Sunday so I can post as much as I want. Nice to see you guys again. And yes, I'm long the Euro.

Welcome back! I think social media can help a person grow just it depends who is in your social circle. Like in real life...

 

[ignl]

Buy pukes in strong number lines. Very simple. Puking action is almost ALWAYS bullish. If I had to guess maybe 95% of the time. Markets don't roll over on pukes. Buy em up. Same goes for spikes in weak number lines. That strategy will outperform the indices for the next 100 years but requires patience and work. Thank God most people have neither.

My health couldn't be better. Knock on wood. Thanks for asking Robert!

USDJPY today anyone?

 

[koolaid]

USDJPY today anyone?

I feel like it's going to 120....anyone thinks it's a buying opp?

 

[ignl]

I feel like it's going to 120....anyone thinks it's a buying opp?

I bought some. I believe Kuroda as much as those emails that I am Nigerian prince I have weekly MA @122 (also previous resistance) so I would be worried if it spends significant time/closes below that. M A down @ 122.71 (failed for now). Other than that it is still breakout in progress for me so it seems like an opportunity. We will see...

 

[Maverick74]

nice to see you back Mav, unless you are posting this from lower Wacker Drive, what are your thoughts on this grexit, its a meandering situation which is creating some vol around the euro stock indexes, is there any data on probability of an exit?

King, I think Japan has a much more clearer forward picture then Europe. I personally think Greece is already gone and actually priced in to the market. But Europe is going to be very messy. Japan on the other hand is a one way train. There is no doubt in my mind we will see a 250 USD/JPY at some point in the future and most likely 150 before the year is up. Also watch GPB/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY. To me this is the most clear macro trade out there. No, it's not going to go straight up with no pullbacks. No you can't just be long without a stop. I suspect a very ugly pullback is in the making soon. Remember, the uglier the pullbacks, the more bullish the move. Buy the puke!