The ACD Method

copyplus said:
I took another look at precious metals this weekend.

Gold
confirmed negative, above the monthly A up
30 day: -13
monthly: -4
5 day: +2

Silver
30 day: -3
monthly: +3
5 day: +3

Miners (GDX)
confirmed negative, above monthly A up
30 day: -2
monthly: +3
5 day: +1

Junior Miners
confirmed negative, above the monthly A up
30 day: -11
monthly: -3
5 day: 0

GLD (I track this in addition to GC as an experiment)
confirmed negative
30 day: -18
monthly: -7
5 day: -5

There has been some strength seen by virtue of the monthly A ups, however they are late cycle and are not being confirmed by the monthly number lines. A couple of 5 days triggered +5 on Thursday but quickly fell back below the trigger level on Friday. Confirmed negative NL's in everything but Silver.

I could see someone making a case that this data could support fading this up move. As a macro trader I lean on monthly levels for stops, but since everything but Silver is above those levels I'll sit this out for now.
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Cool. Thanks
 
Heyall, I am busy working out my own way of implementing the ACD. I've been doing a lot of looking back to see how it performs and it has already helped me a lot with my DAX trading, using it for bias. I just have a question about OR. Now i know there are no hard and fast rules around the opening range, and consistency is more important than the time you pick.

But i found worse results when moved to the official London open, there is an hour before London open when you can trade DAX but the volume is lighter. Would a time period in this hour between 07:00-08:00 GMT be considered opening price discovery period or would it be more sensible to consider the first period from when London opens.....

Just some thoughts please? I know there is no "correct" answer. I am slowly developing my own strategy around this but i want to make a final decision around this starting time.
 
Thanks Maverick! I'm making my way through the thread this week, there's a lot. But you've suggested a lot of extremely useful ideas already for using the ACD in the first 20 pages.
 
kinggyppo said:
Mav can you comment on how the US refiners will do in this environment when you get a minute, thanks
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The cracks are holding up OK. The heating oil crack is faring better then rbob. The refinery margins are still very robust. Especially considering that most of the gulf is refining heavy oil that is trading at a $15 discount to WTI.
 
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