The ACD Method

ignl said:
Interesting that gold is up. Probably central banks gets rid of EUR in their reserves and replace it with gold or smth :) For me gold touched quarter A down. Could it go up together with strong dollar?
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I rather be long Palladium.
 
hoop121 said:
don't be too discouraged that your NL does not match up with the TSLA strength. This is a perfect example of what Mav was talking about regarding the popular tickers. TSLA is VERY crowded. It fit in with ACD much better when it pulled back 40% earlier this year and people thought the run was over.
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Yeah I have some notes in my ACD manual saying how once something has had a monster move don't keep going back for more, because now everyone is trying to get involved and it could get sloppy. TSLA had the huge run last year so fits in with that.

One of ACD's strengths is that it points out consistency. I'd honestly rather trade something that scores a 2,2,2,2,0,0,2,0,2,0 and is only up 10%, than something that scores a -3,0,4,-3,0,0,2,-2,3,-2,0 and is up 25%. Does that make sense?
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That makes perfect sense, thanks. We want "smoother" moves.
 
Maverick74 said:
I rather be long Palladium.
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Yeah probably its better, I just noticed that when EUR dived after rate cut gold was actually up a bit and it caught my eye as an anomaly. Now it kinda reversed. However its probably logical. Some initial move from eur to gold and after that gold just does what it does. BTW Eur was so weak there were barely any A ups, do you guys use weekly monthly pivot ranges? I got tired of waiting for weekly A up and shorted small position of eurhkd at weekly pivot which turned out high of the day and my other orders higher unfortunately were not hit. I find weekly/monthly pivots really helpful especially if it aligns with other levels.
 
trader31 said:
Maverick, quick question - i recall you saying that you derive many of the stocks you follow from the IBD 50, which I tend to think of (perhaps incorrectly) as the most of the "hot" stocks of the moment. Can you give us a sense of how you might differentiate that list further to find a good trading candidate? Understand if you would rather not say. Thanks very much.
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Actually I would not describe the IBD 50 as hot stocks. I think they "become" hot as part of a natural process. The IBD 50 stocks usually have massive sales growth and are fairly low in market cap which creates an environment for a stock to launch from. Plus the IBD 50 is very widely followed and people tend to rush in and out of those as new stocks get added. I usually look for "cousins" of those stocks. Most of those companies are in the right industry at the right time. So it's not terribly difficult to find others like them.

One thing you could do is once you find some tickers you like, see how often they get mentioned on twitter. The less the better. Some of my best stocks are NEVER talked about, not on CNBC, not on twitter and certainly not on ET.
 
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Nice little over view on YTD performance of various sectors and markets courtesy of Bespoke Investment Group.
 
Maverick74 said:
Actually I would not describe the IBD 50 as hot stocks. I think they "become" hot as part of a natural process. The IBD 50 stocks usually have massive sales growth and are fairly low in market cap which creates an environment for a stock to launch from. Plus the IBD 50 is very widely followed and people tend to rush in and out of those as new stocks get added. I usually look for "cousins" of those stocks. Most of those companies are in the right industry at the right time. So it's not terribly difficult to find others like them.

One thing you could do is once you find some tickers you like, see how often they get mentioned on twitter. The less the better. Some of my best stocks are NEVER talked about, not on CNBC, not on twitter and certainly not on ET.
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Thanks for your insights, that is helpful.
 
Maverick74 said:
CNBC%20August%202014_0.jpg


Almost a perfect inverse correlation to the market.
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I'd imagine the big spikes are reactionary to market crash's instead of predictive. But you do see some run up into those spikes. ie. retail catching on to the gravy train and looking for "expert" advice
 
Yeah definitely not predictive. It does show you though that most of the retail crowd is not even involved in the market. Usually people watch CNBC because they have skin in the game. If they are not involved, no reason to watch.
 
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