The ACD Method

traderslair said:
That is the exact big problem technical analysis has.

This happend this morning :

"Gold Slumps Most In 2014 As "Someone" Dumps $1.37 Billion In Futures At US Open"

You can't do numbers lines, support levels, technical levels, analyses, voodoo, whatever when somebody on a Monday just dumps $1.37 bil in futures at US open.
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Actually Gold was pretty text book. Failed monthly A up. Today made a pretty clean intra-day A down. I had no number line confirmation in Gold so there was no reason to be long. I'm not sure what different it makes if someone dumps 1 billion in Gold or a hundred dollars in Gold.
 
Maverick74 said:
Gold had a perfect failed monthly A up (chart attached).

Never try to buy something that wicks like that at the failed monthly A up. Of course now it could be a nice buy at the failed monthly A down. :)
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I didn't know if it was close enough to the A to call it a failure. I know it doesn't have to actually touch the level to fail it, but still it's always personal judgement as to how close is close enough.

I don't have a confirm on futures, but GLD is confirmed for me, so for that reason I was bullish on it

Thanks for the advice!
 
copyplus said:
I didn't know if it was close enough to the A to call it a failure. I know it doesn't have to actually touch the level to fail it, but still it's always personal judgement as to how close is close enough.

I don't have a confirm on futures, but GLD is confirmed for me, so for that reason I was bullish on it

Thanks for the advice!
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OK, so let's say GLD confirmed for you. Where is your stop?
 
Mav,
I am intereted in the GLD/GC conundrum. I have GLD confirmed, but GC with a -2 (all on 30NL). Both are up against the Monthly ADown. I could take GLD with a stop below the ADn. I could take GC with a stop below the Monthly ADown.

Failed Monthly ADown is a accepted entry point, but I like to take it with a decent NL supporting it. So in this case would you consider an entry on GC a decent entry (with just a failed ADown but without a confirmed 30NL)
 
Maverick74 said:
OK, so let's say GLD confirmed for you. Where is your stop?
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Since GLD was confirmed and I didn't consider the monthly to have failed yet, I was looking to get in on failed A downs.

Going into the week I figured it was too late to put on a swing trade. The monthly A down would be the stop for a swing trade and that was too far away given how close the monthly A up was.

So basically all I could look for with my bullish bias was an intraday trade off a failed daily A down. My stop would be rather tight in that scenario and target would be the daily A up.
 
partha said:
Mav,
I am intereted in the GLD/GC conundrum. I have GLD confirmed, but GC with a -2 (all on 30NL). Both are up against the Monthly ADown. I could take GLD with a stop below the ADn. I could take GC with a stop below the Monthly ADown.

Failed Monthly ADown is a accepted entry point, but I like to take it with a decent NL supporting it. So in this case would you consider an entry on GC a decent entry (with just a failed ADown but without a confirmed 30NL)
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I usually go with the futures over the ETF since the futures have a 24 hour day and therefore wider ranges and wider A levels. I like to err on the side of wider A levels. Also, there is a lot of economic data that comes out pre-market that GLD doesn't capture unless you have the extended hours checked.

Regarding entry on Gold, no. Why would I buy Gold when I can buy Copper? Confirmed monthly A up and confirmed number line. FYI, the gold miners confirmed awhile back and have been on fire. Much stronger then Gold. I would favor them over the metal at the current time. On a pullback of course.
 
Thanks. Yes Copper is confirmed for me. Have a weekly ADown test in progess (my lines)- maybe a failed weekly ADown is good enough for an entry ?
 
Mav,
Thanks for a most interesting education this week (in addition to all that has come before). Gold didnt hold that ADown - but Copper - is showing a failed ADown on the weekly. The NLs sure correlated with today's price action.
 
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