The ACD Method

[justrading]

Looked at fisher 30 day cum. number line, not one is nearing+/-9 I assume you have not taken any trades recently ?

I will look into the Vol. line once better handle on calculating he number line, thanks

Which symbols did you look at?

In the ones I monitor there are those where I could have entered trades within the last week.

I don't have any open trades on right now, but that has nothing to do with number lines or my entry signals, which I have had and ignored.

Basically this is FOMC and NFP week and I long since got tired of the ridiculous gyrations over minor expectation variances, so now I just goof off and wait for things to settle. I'm not a day trader.

 

[trilogic]

Which symbols did you look at?

In the ones I monitor there are those where I could have entered trades within the last week.

I don't have any open trades on right now, but that has nothing to do with number lines or my entry signals, which I have had and ignored.

Basically this is FOMC and NFP week and I long since got tired of the ridiculous gyrations over minor expectation variances, so now I just goof off and wait for things to settle. I'm not a day trader.

Hi, yea good idea day rading not a great means for a return

seems like many are in between-9/+9

everything from indicies to commodities including metals softs etc

 

[justrading]

Hi, yea good idea day rading not a great means for a return

seems like many are in between-9/+9

everything from indicies to commodities including metals softs etc

OK, I'm not in a similar situation, but then I wouldn't expect to be. Different OR, different A values so end result would be different number lines.

I think Mav has emphasised this before, but as it is so crucial to the whole system, it bears repeating.

It all boils down to how you relate your number lines, your levels, your entry signals as a whole, like your own private ecosystem.

Now I've changed the scoring system and I'm tweaking an experimental method that I increasingly rely on, but taking just ZB as an example, my 30 day number has never dipped below the confirmation level going back to mid-April, which is what I can see at a glance. I've had entry signals on 22nd April, and again after yesterday's bar, another possible entry at today's open. If you didn't want to trade that, the ETF TLT pretty much mirrored the situation.

More such instances in stocks, which is why I bother maintaining so many.

If you are just looking at the 30 day number line confirmation as a trade entry signal or even as a filter, in isolation, then you will miss all the entries that come about from a V shaped turn, because the 30 day lags like crazy in such situations. When price has built a base for some time, then the 30 day is great for flagging a breakout that nobody else will see initially, as Mav has demonstrated more than a few times here.

My entries come from outside of ACD, levels come from ACD and if both point to a trade, I'd rather just look at the 5 day as the 30 may be way back.

 

[trilogic]

OK, I'm not in a similar situation, but then I wouldn't expect to be. Different OR, different A values so end result would be different number lines.

I think Mav has emphasised this before, but as it is so crucial to the whole system, it bears repeating.

It all boils down to how you relate your number lines, your levels, your entry signals as a whole, like your own private ecosystem.

Now I've changed the scoring system and I'm tweaking an experimental method that I increasingly rely on, but taking just ZB as an example, my 30 day number has never dipped below the confirmation level going back to mid-April, which is what I can see at a glance. I've had entry signals on 22nd April, and again after yesterday's bar, another possible entry at today's open. If you didn't want to trade that, the ETF TLT pretty much mirrored the situation.

More such instances in stocks, which is why I bother maintaining so many.

If you are just looking at the 30 day number line confirmation as a trade entry signal or even as a filter, in isolation, then you will miss all the entries that come about from a V shaped turn, because the 30 day lags like crazy in such situations. When price has built a base for some time, then the 30 day is great for flagging a breakout that nobody else will see initially, as Mav has demonstrated more than a few times here.

My entries come from outside of ACD, levels come from ACD and if both point to a trade, I'd rather just look at the 5 day as the 30 may be way back.

Thank you.

I will set up a 5 day in conjunction with what I think its a good A' value ( maybe .25-.30 of a 14 period ATR for example) take a look at some pivot ranges for direction and go from there.

too many filters an hurt too I think.. your view sounds interesting. I am definite believer of broader"context"

 

[justrading]

Thank you.

I will set up a 5 day in conjunction with what I think its a good A' value ( maybe .25-.30 of a 14 period ATR for example) take a look at some pivot ranges for direction and go from there.

too many filters an hurt too I think.. your view sounds interesting. I am definite believer of broader"context"

One last point, if both the 5 day and the 30 day point in a different direction than my entry signal, then I really have to ask myself if I want that trade.

A great recent example, NFLX, both number lines horribly negative, it bounced off my Quarterly A down which is just above $300. If you are a counter-trend trader and happy catching falling knives, that would have been a great trade. I'm not by the way, I'd rather have less excitement in life.

 

[trilogic]

One last point, if both the 5 day and the 30 day point in a different direction than my entry signal, then I really have to ask myself if I want that trade.

A great recent example, NFLX, both number lines horribly negative, it bounced off my Quarterly A down which is just above $300. If you are a counter-trend trader and happy catching falling knives, that would have been a great trade. I'm not by the way, I'd rather have less excitement in life.

I think I understand, if say 5 day and 30 day were near each other 5 day +9 two days in a row and 30 day was only a +3 you may feel good taking a trade off some signal based on number lines confirming albeit the 5 day actual properly confirming and the 30 day not measuring a real negative number for example...

 

[justrading]

I think I understand, if say 5 day and 30 day were near each other 5 day +9 two days in a row and 30 day was only a +3 you may feel good taking a trade off some signal based on number lines confirming albeit the 5 day actual properly confirming and the 30 day not measuring a real negative number for example...

Yeah, but my 5 day confirmation is not the equivalent of 9, it is much less, but that is the general idea. If everything else lines up, I'll even go long on a 5 day confirmed with a negative 30 day. I'd just have to watch out it is not a short term pullback, but if it's a decent swing that would be fine anyway.

Search this thread for the discussion on 5 day number lines.

 

[trilogic]

Yeah, but my 5 day confirmation is not the equivalent of 9, it is much less, but that is the general idea. If everything else lines up, I'll even go long on a 5 day confirmed with a negative 30 day. I'd just have to watch out it is not a short term pullback, but if it's a decent swing that would be fine anyway.

Search this thread for the discussion on 5 day number lines.

Thanks... interesting below

"The mistake a lot of people make with data is that they assume data is constantly giving useful information. Data by it's definition is noise. It's value only becomes realized when it's meaningful. Therefore, the ACD operator has to become adept at knowing the difference. A large majority of the time the 5 day offers little to no value. So no, you don't "need" it to do anything. But when it does, pay attention to it. "

 

[justrading]

Thanks... interesting below

"The mistake a lot of people make with data is that they assume data is constantly giving useful information. Data by it's definition is noise. It's value only becomes realized when it's meaningful. Therefore, the ACD operator has to become adept at knowing the difference. A large majority of the time the 5 day offers little to no value. So no, you don't "need" it to do anything. But when it does, pay attention to it. "

I think context is all important, otherwise signals either come way too late or are constantly proving false.

Like after 2008 when markets started recovering, if you were a trend trader it wouldn't matter how late the 30 day confirmation was, you could have just got on board at an opportune point and ridden the trend for the next few years.

But recently with markets so skittish, if you wait for the 30 day the party would probably be over. I've shut down my PC because of a storm here so I can't check, but CL bounced off my quarterly A up and has been headed down since. The 30 day is still positive and the 5 day perhaps touched confirmation level after the bounce. (If this is wrong, I'll let you know tomorrow. )

So yes, per Mav's point, that would be a good time to ignore the number lines.

 

[Maverick74]

Regarding all the number lines and all the A levels, let me say that the best way to learn about them is simply to jump into the pool in the deep end and start swimming. It took me a long time to understand how all the moving parts interacted with each other. Be weary of getting involved with this and seeing numbers and thinking you know what they mean. Once you start making trades you will quickly learn how all this works. It's very hard to come in cold and say oh the 30 day is this and the 5 day is that and the monthly A level is here so it's a good trade. After you score 100's of days of data and looked at hundreds of weekly and monthly levels you will start to understand.

And yes, I'll repeat this again, my number lines should mean nothing to you and yours should mean nothing to me. You have to "build a relationship" with your data. And that relationship needs time to get intimate. But give it some patience. I promise you, it will pay off. You'll start to see stuff in this market that no one on ET is talking about. Big, big juicy opportunities and you will have it all to yourself. And the payoff will be huge. It just takes time. Patience and time.