The ACD Method

[trilogic]

Hi Last I saw here they "number line" was at a "round pretty" number and there were "warnings" now everything a go ?

I did not sell the exact top either it was not pretty

 

[Maverick74]

Thanks Mav for the explanation also Mav when your talking about opportunity cost you referring to how efficient one is in allocating his resources. So if a trader takes a trade and it moves in the right direction but not at the impact as you initially thought relative to another instrument ,the trader has made money but in real terms with regards to the opportunity cost of trading the relative instrument that has moved up more significantly the trader in fact has lost money. So Mav would you say picking the right stocks, currencies or commodities instruments to watch is half the battle for traders and is the following reason's i have stated above the main reasons for the use of time stops

i apologize if the question is crap Mav , just want to start strengthening my understanding

Wow12, you are almost ready to enroll in an Economics program. In your example above, the trader had an economic loss vs a monetary loss. This is important to understand as you pointed out, optimizing your returns is very important. And the allocation of scarce resources is what drives our economy and allows us to discover value. I've stated on other threads that simply making money is not the goal, it's how you make the money. If your capital and time would have been better served doing something else or investing in something else, then one has generated an economic loss.

So you are indeed correct, product selection is EXTREMELY important. Optimizing your dollars, your time and all your resources. Someone asked not long ago, "Mav watching too many products is difficult and leaves me scattered". But the question is, does it generate more value. How you "feel" is not one of the variables in the model. What you end up making is. So you might "feel" better trading one product or two, but you might be racking up huge economic losses by doing so.

 

[kinggyppo]

Wow12, you are almost ready to enroll in an Economics program. In your example above, the trader had an economic loss vs a monetary loss. This is important to understand as you pointed out, optimizing your returns is very important. And the allocation of scarce resources is what drives our economy and allows us to discover value. I've stated on other threads that simply making money is not the goal, it's how you make the money. If your capital and time would have been better served doing something else or investing in something else, then one has generated an economic loss.

So you are indeed correct, product selection is EXTREMELY important. Optimizing your dollars, your time and all your resources. Someone asked not long ago, "Mav watching too many products is difficult and leaves me scattered". But the question is, does it generate more value. How you "feel" is not one of the variables in the model. What you end up making is. So you might "feel" better trading one product or two, but you might be racking up huge economic losses by doing so.

if you understand average true range which is part and parcel of acd then you have a quick answer re daytrading. average range on qqq right now is around $1.50 per day plenty of juice for us pikers!!

 

[kinggyppo]

wow12 so here is a chart of ISRG getting taken to the woodshed today. The average true range on the 15 minute chart went from around 2 to around 10. Do you see why a daytrader would rather trade this than something with a .03 cent range, there is more potential profit to take out whether you are short or long.

 

[Robert Yanks]

Thanks Robert. Solid info.

For those of you home gamers out there, let me point out a process which led to perhaps info that could lead to a series of productive trades.

1) Collect Data

2) Analyze Data

3) Look for obscure patterns or changes in existing patterns

4) Concept of rarity

5) Use data to isolate specific areas of opportunity

6) Estimate your risk

7) Design optimal trade

Or you could just fade stuff.

Nice job Robert.

That's 7 great points Mav. Thank you sir!

 

[kinggyppo]

NQ first two weeks close 3584.50

 

[wow12]

wow12 so here is a chart of ISRG getting taken to the woodshed today. The average true range on the 15 minute chart went from around 2 to around 10. Do you see why a daytrader would rather trade this than something with a .03 cent range, there is more potential profit to take out whether you are short or long.

Thanks Mav and king seriously the explanation and concepts that you have brought forward have been excellent and if you guys wanted a change in career you guys would definitely make excellent teacher's or coaches. another thing to note for any newbies like me the ACD frame work set out by Mark is just that a framework the requires you to add colors and structures which in turn if people take the time to read the the thread should be able develop these colors and structures alongside the ACD framework you can start developing a detailed pictured that should help identify

• expected value , risk parameters , environment the instrument is operating and position sizing

And if any1 wants to know i'm currently still working on the type environments the instruments operating in and developing ideas to try to adapt to these situations when they occur.

 

[Robert Yanks]

I've highlighted the 8th trading day of the first four months and you can see the current month's 5 day is a very large negative number at -420. A fairly negative monthly bias. Check out the 5th trading day of Feb, Mar and April and none of them had an A Up. Coincidence? Notice the monthly A up percentage compared to previous months.

 

[Robert Yanks]

Here's a few number lines that may be of interest. Any confirmations?

 

[kinggyppo]

Here's a few number lines that may be of interest. Any confirmations?

xlv not surprising it has been beaten down pretty hard lately with bonds catching a bid, good work sir.