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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
I'll take that as a no. LOL. Guys, the selloff in risk is not going to be in equity land, it's going to be in these emerging currencies. WATCH THEM!
The Peso is breaking down. Turkey is getting slammed. Aussie is tied to China. South Africa is taking it on the chin.
So, the update in FX land is, we have confirmations to the upside on USD/MXN, GBP/AUD, USD/TRY and we just last week got the neg confirm on USD/JPY.
Mav, I must confess one weakness I have is not identifying trading opportunities from the vast amount of news I consume. Definitely need to work on that.
Two questions. Firstly, do you think the move still has legs? I think the poster child of developing countries currency issues related to tapering has been the Indian Rupee, going back to the time that Raghuram Rajan was appointed Governor of the RBI, so have we missed the boat here?
Secondly, any reasons for choosing MXN and the Rand? I know you have been following USD/TRY, for some time, but why these 2 and not, say, IDR or the like. For example THB is down some 15% from its high of 28+. I didn't have the Oanda account then and IB did not offer it unfortunately.
Mav, I must confess one weakness I have is not identifying trading opportunities from the vast amount of news I consume. Definitely need to work on that.
Two questions. Firstly, do you think the move still has legs? I think the poster child of developing countries currency issues related to tapering has been the Indian Rupee, going back to the time that Raghuram Rajan was appointed Governor of the RBI, so have we missed the boat here?
Secondly, any reasons for choosing MXN and the Rand? I know you have been following USD/TRY, for some time, but why these 2 and not, say, IDR or the like. For example THB is down some 15% from its high of 28+. I didn't have the Oanda account then and IB did not offer it unfortunately.
Yes, it's really hard to get technical traders to follow the news because technical guys like to always say, hey it's in the chart. But news helps one filter noise. It also helps one anticipate future volatility. Can you imagine a nat gas trader who was not even aware of the cold weather and traded off his charts alone? Or someone holding stock XYZ into earnings or holding an ES into a Fed meeting. I know there is a lot out there and with FX, you have the whole world you have to keep an eye on.
So I've been watching the peso for a while now and tracking the number lines on it as well as Turkey so that is why I mention those two. I don't have the number lines for the Rupee but I can trade it on Oanda and that also looks ripe for the picking. THB looks good and even CNY.
Does USD/TRY have legs? Absolutely. I think it can double from here. But I would NOT get long here. There will be some news that will come out that will cause this thing to puke really hard for days or a week. I would look to get long on that. I'll post my levels as it develops.
Interesting piece by Pesek on Asian countries in these bubble days. I also located the Forbes article in which the author also posts links to country reports. Perhaps his view on Singapore is overly bleak, but he is spot on about Thailand.
When things head south, so will the currencies.
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/X09...-bubble-days-over-for-Asias-weak-leaders.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco...omy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/
When things head south, so will the currencies.
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/X09...-bubble-days-over-for-Asias-weak-leaders.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco...omy-is-heading-for-an-iceland-style-meltdown/
60 cents...
We printed 67 cents tonight. This spread is going to go out with a bang as the Feb contract expires this week.
From Worden’s list of 7,427 common stocks, only 16 confirmed the Fisher 5 day rolling outside day up pattern. Probably just the stocks you experienced guys would expect to see.
AIRA, DOG, DXD, ERY, IGOV, PB, PPR, SDOW, SHY TBBK, TVIX, UVXY, VIIX, VIXY, VXX, VXY
AIRA, DOG, DXD, ERY, IGOV, PB, PPR, SDOW, SHY TBBK, TVIX, UVXY, VIIX, VIXY, VXX, VXY
It depends on the product. For stocks, I use the ATR from the low to high. For futures it's the 24 hour period.
Thanks very much.
This volatility in natty is amazing. BTW, you guys who are nervous about wondering into futures can get involved in the ETF's and their corresponding options.
Here's how I have understood it and seen some really good results. This is for futures only.
I calculate the previous 10, 20 and 30 days average daily range (24 hour session). Then I take the min and max of those 3 values and discard the middle one. Then for the current day, add those 2 values to the current price to get the ADR high limit and subtract from the current price to get the ADR low limit for the day. As price makes new intraday highs/lows, the "ADR limits", as I call them, move closer to each other. When we have a confirmed A, the ADR limit almost always gets hit.
See attached chart for today's CL action. Just happened to be a confirmed intraday A up in CL today.
Hope this helps:
View attachment 142441
Interesting, thanks for the post.