The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

So natty made it all the way down to the QTR A down around $4. Regarding your question about the monthly level, you want to use all your ACD tools at your disposal. So I'm going to assume that not everyone has read every page on this thread because I have gone over this before but it might be several 100 pages back. My 5 day number line always helps me reject or confirm a possible trade. With momentum trades I mentioned that I want to see a +/- 5 or greater. With fades in a perfect world, a reading close to 0. Today we had a -3 on natty giving us a -5 on the 5 day. That is NOT something you want to fade. This means you need to sit back and wait for some of those A downs to roll off the 5 day.

Also I mentioned earlier when you get to an A level, you want to the bus to take off and peel some rubber leaving the tourists shaking their fists as they couldn't get on in time. When prices come down to an A level and the bus driver waits there for hours and days, everyone can get on. So you want to see those A levels get rejected and fast. No base forming! Now we have the issue of confirming the monthly A down and that is problematic for a long trade. So how does this resolve itself? The way all problems resolve themselves....time.
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What is your 30 day NL?
 
Mav,
I finished "inside the house of money" really made me think about a lot of things.. Alot of really gangster trader interviews.. They might not give you the expression these traders are using to execute their methods.. But you can catch clues as to the way they think about markets.. I remember one guy kept reiterating.. Its all about liquidity liquidity liquidity.. I like it..
 
Quote from Maverick74:

BTW, let me add something here. About stocks basing, I have no problem with a stock forming a base, but I want that base to either be along a monthly A up or after it made a monthly A up. In other words, I want the base to be in a position of strength. So it's holding at a high level that people don't want to buy and are waiting for it to come back down. Those are the bases people are too afraid to buy. Everyone loves to buy the low bases. The ones that form along the lows because they think they are getting a good price there. Low bases tend to break down and high bases tend to break out.
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Hello Mav,

I really appreciate adding this post to my "Signals" chapter.

Thank you.
 
Gold finally re-set on my 30 day and we are brushing up against the monthly A up for Jan around this 1250 level. Silver already re-set for me over a week back.

Natty bounced off the QTR A down around 4.00.

Bond re-set about a month ago and confirmed a monthly A up last week but heading into the QTR A up now.

Oil wicked off the QTR A down but still below the monthly A down.

Upside for the spoos is 1862 t0 1865. The first is the monthly level and 2nd is the QTR level.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Just a heads up, a lot of number lines are re-setting in FX land. So a lot of chop probably on the way. GBP/AUD is the one standout. Still confirmed.
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Most of the Yen crosses blew through their monthly A downs overnight.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Most of the Yen crosses blew through their monthly A downs overnight.
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One lousy NFP and suddenly we are seeing movements in several currencies.

Do you see a pattern here Mav?
 
Quote from justrading:

One lousy NFP and suddenly we are seeing movements in several currencies.

Do you see a pattern here Mav?
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I saw a nice pattern in natty gas. :)

Once the number lines re-set in the yen crosses the tail winds stopped.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I saw a nice pattern in natty gas. :)

Once the number lines re-set in the yen crosses the tail winds stopped.
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I noticed the Aussie strengthening as well, so I was wondering about the connection.

Yen should weaken again at some point, but as usual we need a signal first because there's some interesting stuff going on in Japan and heaven knows how that will impact the Nikkei and Yen.

Do you typically hold positions through NFP?
 
Quote from justrading:

I noticed the Aussie strengthening as well, so I was wondering about the connection.

Yen should weaken again at some point, but as usual we need a signal first because there's some interesting stuff going on in Japan and heaven knows how that will impact the Nikkei and Yen.

Do you typically hold positions through NFP?
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Sure, if I had a trade on and it was in the black. Most of the FX stuff went into chop mode before the jobs number. It might be awhile before the yen stuff moves again. You need to find the next play. Don't keep going back to the same well. We had confirms for a long time and we had really large moves. Now all the latecomers will try to dip it. It will be a messy trade.

The Aussie crosses started heating up a few weeks back. No coincidence that metals are firming up now with the strength in the Aussie.
 
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