The ACD Method

Quote from running_bare:

You gold bugs had better sell your gold ASAP @ $1225

Only reason why there was a pop first 2 days of the year was because of fund buying due to increase in % weighting of gold of certain commodity benchmarks. Don't be fooled.

One day when you wake up it could drop $50+ overnight in Asia in the blink of an eye...

Gold has certainly not formed a bottom; recent past few months price action is not consistent with a bottom.

Looking for $1100, if not lower within 1-2 mths.
Gold is an excellent long term buy - but not at current prices.

:D
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No need to proselytize. Just use ACD. We had a failed monthly A up in Jan almost to the handle. Number line is slowing starting to firm. Silver is actually more interesting to me. Number line there reset about 10 days ago and is firming up. I'm all over that when it confirms. It's been forming a nice base.
 
Just a heads up, a lot of number lines are re-setting in FX land. So a lot of chop probably on the way. GBP/AUD is the one standout. Still confirmed.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Here you go:

YELP,NUS,LL,BCOR,YY,YNDX,WFM,VRTX,UTHR,BIIB,REGN, CELG,USNA,LGF,OUTR, SRPT,HLF, DMND,TEAR,SPWR,HPY,
MNKD,VPRT,Z,QCOR,JCOM,GME,LF,AMZN,JAZZ,ACT,EVR,FLT, TRIP,PRLB,SBNY,SIVB,KKD,FB,NFLX,LNKD,P,WYNN
ICON,AWAY,MELI,LOPE,AFSI,NSR,WWWW
AAPL ,GOOG,IOC,TSLA,DDD


No secrets here. I'll even tell you where I get most of them. Most of them come from the IBD 100.
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Any other ACD newbies following these stocks? These are the notes I made tonight.

>AAPL is hanging right around the Monthly A Down at 541.19
>ACT pierced and closed above the Mo A up at 174.89. Sure looks strong.
>GME confirmed A down at 46.19 but on a strong bar. (I have backtested hundreds of thousands of strong bars. No edge there.)
>GOOG is getting close to a Mo A up at 1135
>IOC bouncing around the Mo A dn at 44.50 Mav has said many times these levels are not S&R but damn, they sure act like S&R : )
>JAZZ had a Mo A up at 131.51
>NFLX had a Mo A dn at 347.50
>P continues to show strength after a Mo A up at 29
>WFM confirmed a Mo A dn today at 55.70
>YELP confirmed a Mo A up today at 73.71
>YY continued to show strength after a Mo A up yesterday at 46.58
 
Mav,

Can you tell us how you interpret the action for failed ADn - using AAPL and PCLN. Both made contact with the ADn monthly on the third day of the month. PCLN painted a nice hammer and retook the OR. AAPL is bumbling along. At what point would you consider each one to be a failed ADn. I am not proposing a trade on the failed ADn - just trying to learn how you see the action.
 
Quote from partha:

Mav,

Can you tell us how you interpret the action for failed ADn - using AAPL and PCLN. Both made contact with the ADn monthly on the third day of the month. PCLN painted a nice hammer and retook the OR. AAPL is bumbling along. At what point would you consider each one to be a failed ADn. I am not proposing a trade on the failed ADn - just trying to learn how you see the action.
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So I like to key off of strength. I really don't like trading these that have NOT demonstrated strength. My first go to is the 30 day number line. Anything stock that has confirmed is already telling you the price action is favorable. So I always take those failed monthly A downs. If it has not confirmed on the 30 day then it's already telling me it's in chop mode which often leads to stocks that will bounce off the A down but meander around and not really go anywhere.

The one exception I would take to taking a trade that has not confirmed would be if it demonstrated strength by confirming a monthly A up and then buying the failed weekly A down. So now I'm keying off the strength on the monthly and using the weekly fade as my entry. But simply buying something only because it bounces off of a monthly level is probably a 50/50 proposition. so some will work very nicely and others won't.

In general, you want failed A trades to reject price quickly, not sit there and form a base. As Fisher calls them, they are the bus people. If the bus is waiting around for the slowest people to get on, then you probably don't want to get on that bus.
 
BTW, let me add something here. About stocks basing, I have no problem with a stock forming a base, but I want that base to either be along a monthly A up or after it made a monthly A up. In other words, I want the base to be in a position of strength. So it's holding at a high level that people don't want to buy and are waiting for it to come back down. Those are the bases people are too afraid to buy. Everyone loves to buy the low bases. The ones that form along the lows because they think they are getting a good price there. Low bases tend to break down and high bases tend to break out.
 
Mav,
NG at ADn ... at least on my levels .. 4.095 NL is inconclusive ... how do you read this one ...
Thanks for the education, the post on buying bases wrt. ACD helped me clarify my thinking.
 
Quote from partha:

Mav,
NG at ADn ... at least on my levels .. 4.095 NL is inconclusive ... how do you read this one ...
Thanks for the education, the post on buying bases wrt. ACD helped me clarify my thinking.
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So natty made it all the way down to the QTR A down around $4. Regarding your question about the monthly level, you want to use all your ACD tools at your disposal. So I'm going to assume that not everyone has read every page on this thread because I have gone over this before but it might be several 100 pages back. My 5 day number line always helps me reject or confirm a possible trade. With momentum trades I mentioned that I want to see a +/- 5 or greater. With fades in a perfect world, a reading close to 0. Today we had a -3 on natty giving us a -5 on the 5 day. That is NOT something you want to fade. This means you need to sit back and wait for some of those A downs to roll off the 5 day.

Also I mentioned earlier when you get to an A level, you want to the bus to take off and peel some rubber leaving the tourists shaking their fists as they couldn't get on in time. When prices come down to an A level and the bus driver waits there for hours and days, everyone can get on. So you want to see those A levels get rejected and fast. No base forming! Now we have the issue of confirming the monthly A down and that is problematic for a long trade. So how does this resolve itself? The way all problems resolve themselves....time.
 
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