The ACD Method


I have no idea what you are looking at. When you say after hours are you referring to after the pit close or after 3pm central time? I see they both rallied off their lows a little but not 1%. What are the last traded prices you see?
 
Charts didnt show up in links

See attachment CL chart. Last bar on far right shows spike to 95.44

CL Time & Sales:
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ene...et-crude_quotes_timeSales_globex_futures.html

In "Time Period" dropdown menu, select time period of your choice.
T & S shows consistent trades over time not just 1 or 2 - not massive but decent size & volume

Similar price spikes on RBOB, HO as well

A bad trade confined to CL maybe...but what are chances of bad trades for all 3...
 

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Quote from Maverick74:

. To make this simple, if I'm fading something, I better NOT see a +/- 5 or greater on a fade. You are fading LEGIT momentum. If I'm buying momentum (long or short) I better not see a 0 number line.


Is it then viable to use the 5 day to assist in taking certain ACD intraday setups?

Example: +5 or greater and a market makes an A up from a narrow opening range through a narrow pivot zone = a fantastic long setup based on a confluence of ACD layers.

Example: -2 and the market trades from a wide OR to an A up that is engulfed by a a wider than average PZ and begins to fail = a fantastic fade setup.

With just a little creativity I think there is potential for using this kind of filter across a number of products.
 
Quote from RunItOnce:

Quote from Maverick74:

. To make this simple, if I'm fading something, I better NOT see a +/- 5 or greater on a fade. You are fading LEGIT momentum. If I'm buying momentum (long or short) I better not see a 0 number line.


Is it then viable to use the 5 day to assist in taking certain ACD intraday setups?

Example: +5 or greater and a market makes an A up from a narrow opening range through a narrow pivot zone = a fantastic long setup based on a confluence of ACD layers.

Example: -2 and the market trades from a wide OR to an A up that is engulfed by a a wider than average PZ and begins to fail = a fantastic fade setup.

With just a little creativity I think there is potential for using this kind of filter across a number of products.

As always, let me offer my usual disclaimer, there are probably many more things you can do with ACD that I don't mention here. I can only offer you what I have done, thought about doing or have observed. I have developed some in intra-day stuff for ACD that does not involve the 5 day number line. The 5 day tends to be mean reverting. I think it's very effective in confirming momentum but it's not necessarily saying momentum will continue, it's simply confirming what has already happened. This is true of most TA. TA is giving you a look into the past, not into the future. What you have to do is figure out what patterns and behavior usually surface "given" certain historical data.

Now, let me clarify something else here. When I say the 5 day is mean reverting, I am NOT, repeat NOT saying that it's fadeable. The reason for this as I have pointed out many times, you can have price moving in the opposite direction of the number line, one of the things that actually makes ACD unique.

I think it's very important for one to have a complete understanding what ACD is telling you specifically. The numbers are meaningless if you don't understand where they are coming from. What is ACD telling you about trend, about momentum, about market environment, about volume, about time, about cycles, about noise, etc. You have to listen to the market and develop a good ear. These are not static things with "if/then" statements. ACD really forces you to develop an intimate understanding of the market.

So having said all this, to answer your question, yes, you can do all sorts of things with different parts of the system "provided" that you fully understand what these different parts do.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

OK, so let's clear up some confusion here. Now all these points have already been addressed in the thread, but I'll repeat them again. The purpose of the monthly number line is to CONFIRM or REJECT a monthly A level. It was created solely for that purpose. The 5 day momentum line also serves that purpose but since the 5 day is rolling, it can be used to confirm or reject ANY trade. It's simply spitting out the price action over the last week. I could pick any stock in the universe at random and armed with the 5 day alone, I could take a trade, say a moving avg crossover trade, and either reject or confirm it with the 5 day. To make this simple, if I'm fading something, I better NOT see a +/- 5 or greater on a fade. You are fading LEGIT momentum. If I'm buying momentum (long or short) I better not see a 0 number line.

The 30 day is a little different. The 30 day number line is NOT a trading signal. It's a price action indicator. It's telling you that the environment is such that a large move is possible and that if you board that train and it's working, STAY WITH IT. It's the only part of the ACD system that concerns itself with duration. I always hear guys on ET say, oh I sold this too early or I got out too fast or if only I would have held that.....blah, blah, blah. I have often likened the 30 day number line to that of a weather forecast. Just because the meteorologist says it's going to snow 12 inches next week, doesn't mean it will. It simply means based on his models, the atmosphere will be conducive to producing a large snow storm. Therefore, next week, if you start to see snowflakes (confirming the forecast) then it might be best to assume that the model is going to be right.

I hope all this made some sense.

A terrific Post Mav. Thank you.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I think it's very important for one to have a complete understanding what ACD is telling you specifically. The numbers are meaningless if you don't understand where they are coming from. What is ACD telling you about trend, about momentum, about market environment, about volume, about time, about cycles, about noise, etc. You have to listen to the market and develop a good ear. These are not static things with "if/then" statements. ACD really forces you to develop an intimate understanding of the market.

So having said all this, to answer your question, yes, you can do all sorts of things with different parts of the system "provided" that you fully understand what these different parts do.

Mav, you have said this many times before in this thread, but it bears repeating for those new to ACD who have not read it.

What is really important is to understand your own number lines and your own levels. Simply put, since there is no standard OR and A level, we will all end up with different number lines. You might use a 20 minute OR, I might use 30. You might use a fixed value for A, mine changes every day with volatility. End result, you might score an A Up where I score 0 and over time we get 30 day number line confirmations at different times.

What is important is what you can gather from all the ACD information that gives you timely entries and helps with trade management.

I tested a variety of indicators when I first started trading, MACD-H worked best for me. Until today I still have this on my charts, and as an ongoing thing use it to cross check the timeliness of my ACD entries. But ACD with the number lines and levels gives me a lot more info than MACD-H does.

One thing I found over the years is the less I trade the more money I make. Of course there is a minimum, but the lesson is over trading hurts you more than anything. Using ACD and having the patience of a fisherman helps.
 
Quote from justrading:



One thing I found over the years is the less I trade the more money I make. Of course there is a minimum, but the lesson is over trading hurts you more than anything. Using ACD and having the patience of a fisherman helps.

And to underscore this point even more, I find it amusing that so many traders are so consumed with commission costs yet lose 10 times their commissions with over trading and losing money on trades they should not be taking. The churn IS the commish.
 
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