The ACD Method

[Maverick74]

Quote from cdcaveman:

your short one outright, and long the other outright.. with no margin relief..

You get margin relief. It's traded as one product, there is no legging. It has it's own ticker. I think the margins are $700 or so. I guess I should point out that the "most" liquid and often quoted duration is the 3 month treasury bill over the 3 month ED. I don't want Martin to come in here and bust my chops on a technicality. LOL.

BTW, here is a nice illustration of the TED spread in 2008. Notice how this bad boy broke out big time early in 2007 while stocks continued to make new highs for months on end. This was the early warning sign that credit was freezing.

 

[Maverick74]

BTW, the margin is very low because the spread is very tight and really doesn't move much. I think it's long term range is between 50 and 100 basis points. So this thing crawls. Except when there is trouble. Then it explodes! It's really the ultimate "long option". If you really want to bet on a market crash, don't short the spoos, get long the TED.

 

[Maverick74]

Here is a current quote:

Stock charts is not letting my paste it here for some reason. Go to their site and type in $TED. It's trading around 17 basis pts right now. No risk in the world. LOL.

 

[justrading]

Mav, thoughts on ZW to the downside?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from justrading:

Mav, thoughts on ZW to the downside?

I really have no opinion. The grains are a little complicated because you have to make sure you understand the different crops. I claim no expertise on the grains. If I traded them, I would probably trade the ETF's that blend them together.

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from Maverick74:

You get margin relief. It's traded as one product, there is no legging. It has it's own ticker. I think the margins are $700 or so. I guess I should point out that the "most" liquid and often quoted duration is the 3 month treasury bill over the 3 month ED. I don't want Martin to come in here and bust my chops on a technicality. LOL.

BTW, here is a nice illustration of the TED spread in 2008. Notice how this bad boy broke out big time early in 2007 while stocks continued to make new highs for months on end. This was the early warning sign that credit was freezing.

this is interesting as hell to me..

 

[cdcaveman]

this site has a good one http://www.macrotrends.net/1447/ted-spread-historical-chart

 

[toolazy]

Quote from justrading:

Not small does not equate with major. Let's keep things in perspective. A lot of the big players in South East Asian markets punt the HS as well, and it is often a leading indicator for the daily performance of the smaller regional markets, in the same way the States leads global markets.

The S&P 500 is as it states, an index of 500 stocks.

My very first study of the Thai market revealed 495 actively traded stocks in total. Post Lehman, a blue chip SET50 stock would set you back all of $1 a share. You could buy DELTA for about 9 baht, then less than 30 cents, below book value, and they never paid less than 5% dividend a year. I laugh when I see a good dividend stock paying 3%, hell I get close to that on a fixed deposit with a government guarantee.

So, in comparison to this, Hang Seng and Nikkei are not small.

Perhaps you would prefer tiny and small as appropriate expressions, but then I struggle with why funds have been investing cheap QE dollars meant to stimulate the American economy in a tiny market like Thailand. Or Indonesia, or the Philippines.

Thailand, malasia, Indonesia have real industries. I think hospitality industry will blossom in this area once trend to kick out overpriced & under-deliver western medicine coupled by collapsing pension schemas & super taxes gathers further pace in west. I have them on my list of markets, although not traded them yet.

Nikkei & yen are my favourites, followed by chinese, aud and then India.

 

[justrading]

Quote from toolazy:

Thailand, malasia, Indonesia have real industries. I think hospitality industry will blossom in this area once trend to kick out overpriced & under-deliver western medicine coupled by collapsing pension schemas & super taxes gathers further pace in west. I have them on my list of markets, although not traded them yet.

Nikkei & yen are my favourites, followed by chinese, aud and then India.

Yes, medical tourism is picking up in a big way, especially in Thailand. Westerners come here for medical procedures, have a holiday and still save compared to having treatment at home.

I like China as a growth story, especially consumer essentials and discretionary, but questions of corporate governance trouble me.

Mav gave a heads up on the yen a while back, that was a good call, and the Nikkei seems to be rising on the back of a weaker yen, so you've made good choices.

 

[koolaid]

tesla bounced off my daily A to the pip...but it's still under the monthly A level