I trade the cracks....delicately. LOL. They'll grow some hair on your chest if you have none. I've modeled them well with ACD. Brent/WTI I've had more problems with. Still working on that model.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
I trade the cracks....delicately. LOL. They'll grow some hair on your chest if you have none. I've modeled them well with ACD. Brent/WTI I've had more problems with. Still working on that model.
Quote from Maverick74:
I trade the cracks....delicately. LOL. They'll grow some hair on your chest if you have none. I've modeled them well with ACD. Brent/WTI I've had more problems with. Still working on that model.
is there any reason you never traded CL intermarket spreads.. IE.. Dec/june/dec flys.. or even just pairs of any sort.
Quote from cdcaveman:
is there any reason you never traded CL intermarket spreads.. IE.. Dec/june/dec flys.. or even just pairs of any sort.
Terrible for ACD. I am an ACD man. I have no edge in that market so I don't trade it. Same reason I don't trade baseball cards or play Keno. LOL. Now the crack spreads are different story. ACD works amazingly well for them and has caught some stratospheric moves.
Quote from kinggyppo:
you mean dx?
No, not DX. I'm talking about following the risk around the world. You can get a great feel for risk appetite by watching where the money is flowing. Do you think it's a coincidence that the spoos are strong while the Aussie is catching a bid? Or the Peso which has been rocking to the upside. Do you really think it's risk off when money is flying into Mexico? LOL.
I've said this before and I will say it again. Why? Because it's that important. I don't care if you ever trade a currency in your entire life, but you better be watching them. It's not that difficult to follow them. It will absolutely add to your bottom line.
Quote from Maverick74:
Terrible for ACD. I am an ACD man. I have no edge in that market so I don't trade it. Same reason I don't trade baseball cards or play Keno. LOL. Now the crack spreads are different story. ACD works amazingly well for them and has caught some stratospheric moves.
thanks for sharing.. are you constructing the contracts yourself or trading RM .. crack spread futures? or something else?
Quote from cdcaveman:
thanks for sharing.. are you constructing the contracts yourself or trading RM .. crack spread futures? or something else?
The futures are the most efficient because you get margin relief. You can trade the ETF's though. USO for oil, UHG for heating oil and UGA for gasoline. But that way is more margin intensive.
Crude Oil will most likely confirm tomorrow on the 30 day. I would not want to be short this.
Quote from Maverick74:
So the way we look at this through the lens of ACD is we review all the various time cycles and A levels and put a picture together. We are in a confirmed QTR A up but we are at the end of QTR so we can discount this data to some degree but make note of the fact that we have held above the QTR A up almost the entire QTR.
Last month I mentioned we had an inside month with the A levels and this month we failed at the monthly A up around 111. Now that we are in the 2nd half of the month, the odds of a strong monthly breakout are slim which means we may get yet another inside month. On the weekly we made a weekly A down but the week is over.
The number line reset for me 3 weeks ago. What does that mean? It means exactly what you already intuitively know, that oil is currently in it's consolidation phase.
So what are we setting up for? An explosive move. However, that does not mean the move has to be to the upside. As of right now, we are sitting on the 50 yard line. There is no need to have a bias because ACD will give us the bias when it happens. No need to come up with fundamental reasons why this or that should happen.
So you ask yourself, what DO you KNOW. We know that volatility is coiling as you mentioned and we have been hanging out above 100 for several months now. So what we can gleam from this is that volatility will expand and it's more then likely to come in October.
So how to play it? Wait for the number line to confirm again, that's our price action indicator. Watch your new A levels next month for bias. The monthly A down this month is around 102. If we traded down there and HELD, I think that could be a great entry for the "possible" monthly A up in Oct. And of course you have your weekly levels next week which have provided great signals but keep in mind, vol has contracted a lot so these trades have tighter risk/rewards right now.
This is how you do a complete ACD analysis. You should go through this process on every product you are watching and trading.
Quote from Maverick74:
Crude Oil will most likely confirm tomorrow on the 30 day. I would not want to be short this.
and i reading this right?? you have your monthly A up at 111? and how long till its a confirm... what i mean is how long does it have to sit above the A up for it to confirm an A up..