The ACD Method

X confirmed a monthly A up today. Up another 3.5%. The weekly A up is 19.66 (today's high was 19.62). We have 3 weeks till end of QTR and the QTR A up target is within reach.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Monthly A up in the spoos right here at 1670. If one really wants to short this market, this is the level.
More...

A better idea though I think is to spread the NQ long against the ES short. Nasdaq made fresh 10 year highs today and most likely will confirm a monthly A up tomorrow. I suspect the ES will continue to underperform against the NQ.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

A better idea though I think is to spread the NQ long against the ES short. Nasdaq made fresh 10 year highs today and most likely will confirm a monthly A up tomorrow. I suspect the ES will continue to underperform against the NQ.
More...

how would ya setup the spread? 1:1 or equal dollar weighted (4:3)?
 
Quote from Maverick74:Monthly A up in the spoos right here at 1670. If one really wants to short this market, this is the level.
More...
Maybe a false upside breakout ~ to 6/18 before the crunch.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Regarding AAPL, so there is a lot to say here. I got long AAPL a month ago around 460 when it confirmed on my 30 day. Usually I avoid stocks like AAPL (highly watched) but this is the first time in a year it confirmed! And it was the first time in a year it made a QTR A up (the rarity principle).

Now it has made a large move and we have the big AAPL event next week. The number line is still in confirmation mode (barely) but the 5 day has shown a lot of weakness. We've had two back to back monthly A ups. It's very normal now to have an inside month and that is EXACTLY what I see happening here. So let me give you my breakdown.

The monthly A up is around 514, we may just pop up to that on the news this weak but I do NOT think we will confirm again this month. We'll likely get a sell on the news event. So what does that mean? It means probably a test of the monthly A down, but not a break. Where is that monthly A down? Around 474. I would definitely get long down there "if" we test and hold. I think we will and we'll have that inside month and break out again to the upside again in Oct.

I'm still long calls but I've sold a lot of juicy calls going into this event so my upside is tepid here and if we test that 514 area I'll be out and looking to get back in later. If you are NOT already long AAPL, I would NOT get long here. Nor would I get short here. It's very possible we test and fail at the monthly A up and simply grind sideways forming a new base over the next month in which it will be pointless to tie up margin trying to short it. Much better short candidates out there.
More...

This played out pretty much as expected. Actually put in a nice-3 day today. Perfect failed A up intra-day and then a confirmed A down. Sell the news event. Made an attempt at the monthly A up, ran out of steam and back below 500. This stock is going to be very messy the rest of the month. I would avoid trading it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top