The ACD Method

Quote from chicagodon:

Would getting long the ES on a failed weekly A Down be an ok play since we have a confimred monthly A up?
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Wow, this thread really blew up, I think I posted on page 10 lol...

In regards to this question.. This is where the number line comes in handy. If you read back on this thread Mav has some good examples of using a number line in conjunction with A levels. If the numberline is showing real strength, and you have higher timeframe A Ups, then you can look at intraday failed A down levels to possibly get long. I better re-read a bunch of this to get back into the loop!
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Would getting long the ES on a failed weekly A Down be an ok play since we have a confimred monthly A up?
More...

You can almost always take a failure trade due to the tight risk parameters. And yes, with a monthly A up, failed weekly A downs are almost always good for a bounce.

It's all about price action. All ACD and the number lines are doing is quantifying what you should already know. If something is acting well, ACD and the number lines should confirm it. And vice versa.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

You can almost always take a failure trade due to the tight risk parameters. And yes, with a monthly A up, failed weekly A downs are almost always good for a bounce.

It's all about price action. All ACD and the number lines are doing is quantifying what you should already know. If something is acting well, ACD and the number lines should confirm it. And vice versa.
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Thank you, I'm reading through this thread, on page 200, lots of good advice from you in it.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

OK, a couple of things. I have spent 4 years and I don't even want to guess how many hours posting to this thread basically putting out in detail almost every facet of this methodology. There is no one in 4 years who has "not" gotten help on this thread. And two, nobodies number lines are going to be the same. Mine are drastically different then Fishers. Number lines are qualitative, not quantitative. I spend a great deal of time putting my number lines together and they reflect how "I" see the market. Not anyone else. They are my eyes and ears. That's 15 years of trading experience that goes into that qualitative approach. So no, your lines will probably not line up with mine. I've said this probably over 100 times on this message board, what is most important is that YOU know how you are deriving your levels and number lines and that YOU develop a feel for YOUR data. If you gave me your number lines and told me to trade off of them, it would be difficult because one, I don't know how you are deriving your data and I would not be in rhythm with your data. Qualitative data is full of "grey" area. Hence it's name.
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Ok thanks. I will go thrugh book and read again.

I thought a simple spreadsheet for each instrument would enable anyone to plug in numbers, how ou view these numbers should be a bit different but though everyone shoul be on same page, numberlne should be numberline


will have to re read and learn more....

I have spent most time doing backtest on best opening range for NG,
 
Watching AAPL today. Sitting right on the edge of the opening range from today, below is a small 3 day rolling pivot range, looks like its failed twice at the weekly A Up level. I'm questioning if you could qualify this as a solid monthly A up. My notes show that we haven't closed 1/2 the day above it.

My idea is to fade this failed A up level, a lot of people are now bullish this name, but in my eyes its still weak. My 5 and 30 day numberline is weakening a little too. I'm looking to see if we can put in an intraday A down to get the ball rolling.
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Watching AAPL today. Sitting right on the edge of the opening range from today, below is a small 3 day rolling pivot range, looks like its failed twice at the weekly A Up level. I'm questioning if you could qualify this as a solid monthly A up. My notes show that we haven't closed 1/2 the day above it.

My idea is to fade this failed A up level, a lot of people are now bullish this name, but in my eyes its still weak. My 5 and 30 day numberline is weakening a little too. I'm looking to see if we can put in an intraday A down to get the ball rolling.
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Came within .30c of the intraday A Down today. Might juice it into the close would actually not be a bad play, its above the 3 day rolling pivot, above the monthly A Up level, might tag the weekly A Up level next. The fact I'm flip flopping so much on this is probably a sign to not do anything for me.
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Came within .30c of the intraday A Down today. Might juice it into the close would actually not be a bad play, its above the 3 day rolling pivot, above the monthly A Up level, might tag the weekly A Up level next. The fact I'm flip flopping so much on this is probably a sign to not do anything for me.
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Intraday trading gets a bit tough during environments like this, at least for me. I tend to do more of that when there is more vol. You doing any work with swings? Or doing more intraday ACD work?
 
I've been 'daytrading' for a few years, it was a lot easier a few years back, last year was tough after the first 6 months. So i started dedicating myself to more swing approach, and that kind of why I've started to look at ACD for help with getting into moves.

Lately I feel like daytrading is beyond dead, or at least for me very tough to consistently do. I have a buddy (he's posted a few times on here and thats kind of how I found out about ACD) that is a very good daytrader, makes really consistent money and swings his positions sometimes. I've had him try to help me out, but he says a lot of it is just experience, knowing when not to trade and never to lose money (easier said then done). I asked him about that, and what he said he means is to never be out of the game, go for singles until you get a real fat pitch and go for the grandslam.

I'm kind of thinking about looking into swing trading futures. Chicago is obviously a huge futures town so I wish I would have done that instead of equities. SO I'm very fresh to it. But I've been trying to play around with ACD on stocks since thats what I know. Researching the futures market is kind of daunting and I'm not sure where to really start.
 
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