The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

Nice try! Hey, you know there are no wrong answers. Anywhere from 1 to 3 hours would make sense. Fisher starts his on Sunday night. You have to use something that makes sense to you. You don't know what kind of meds I'm on so you better not trust just what I say. :)

LOL, thanks. Once I get something cooking with my number lines I might have to see where mine line up compared to yours. thanks!
 
A little FYI, implied volatility on the RUT made new all time lows today at 13.97. Took out the 2007 lows. The all time low in the VIX is still around 9 from 2007. Act accordingly.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

The 30 day measures more long term trend and plays a large part in timing the various cycles. It also measures the quality of the given trend. Think of the number line as your vitals in your body. And your actual outside appearance as the price chart. Many people look healthy on the outside when in reality they are very unhealthy on the inside. Price charts work the same way. Many times a chart will look smooth, trending and orderly when in reality, the internals of that trend are lacking. The number lines are the aggregate measure of the daily vitals of various products. It allows you to "confirm" what you are seeing on the chart as real and make sure it is not illusory.

The monthly line corresponds to a "particular" cycle, in this case a segment of time of one month. It is married together with the monthly ACD levels. So when you get to monthly A level, you "check" the vitals. That's the monthly number line. If the monthly line confirms what the A levels are telling you, it gives you the confidence to take the trade. If it is not confirming it, then you reject the trade.

The 5 day follows the same course. It also measures a part of the cycle, in this case, the most recent 5 days. Since momentum, like energy, is very short lived, you need to be very cognitive of when you are in a momentum phase. For example, you do NOT want to short something that is experiencing a burst of momentum. The thing with momentum is that because it's life cycle is so short, it's raw energy is very high. Much like energy in nature. Ideally you want to see this energy ignite at breakouts or the beginning of a trend.

At the same time, the "lack" of energy is equally telling. If you are about to take a breakout trade and the energy is simply not there, then there is a very good chance you are chasing a false breakout or you are getting in at the end of a move vs the beginning.

ACD works very much like the laws of nature. There are patterns and cycles, periods of equilibrium and periods of instability. This is why I stated before it's absolutely imperative that you recognize what cycle you are in as well as how far along in that cycle you are. Remember, ACD is three dimensional. It's price, time and volatility. Simply trading off price alone will not get you very far.

great post, thanks for sharing. :)
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Anyone notice on MBF's site there is a TBA for Logical Trader Symposium? Is that new to the site or has that been on there for awhile?

That's not new. He has had that on there for awhile. He hasn't done one in 3 or 4 years. I hope the fact that they left that up there means he would still like to do one again.
 
Yeah it would be cool, I've watched that seminar from 03 (I think) about 3 times, its great.

Do you know anything about his firm lately? Does he still trade daily? The book The Asylum had some color on him I found intersting. Some argue with the popularity of 24 hr market this doesnt work as well anymore, any thoughts? I know you live in Chicago, do you know any groups that use this method?
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Yeah it would be cool, I've watched that seminar from 03 (I think) about 3 times, its great.

Do you know anything about his firm lately? Does he still trade daily? The book The Asylum had some color on him I found intersting. Some argue with the popularity of 24 hr market this doesnt work as well anymore, any thoughts? I know you live in Chicago, do you know any groups that use this method?

I read "The Asylum" as well. Great book. I don't think 24 hour markets have changed anything with ACD. In fact, I think ACD works better today then it did 10 years ago.

I'll quiz you on that. Why do you think I would say that? Here's a hint, the answer actually lies in some of my most recent posts in the last week.

I know Mark got out of the clearing business after the JPM suit was settled. He is now an IB to FC Stone I believe. I have a feeling Mark is catching his second wind right now and is very close to launching a new project.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I know none of you guys probably trade cotton, although there is an ETF for it, but of all the commodities, it's the only one bid. Nice breakout the last few weeks. The QTR A up is 79.82 which we blasted through. Coming up to the monthly at 87.33.

Back on March 4th I posted this. Nice follow through huh? It's the only commodity holding a bid in this strong dollar environment.

fut_chart.ashx


fut_image.ashx
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I read "The Asylum" as well. Great book. I don't think 24 hour markets have changed anything with ACD. In fact, I think ACD works better today then it did 10 years ago.

I'll quiz you on that. Why do you think I would say that? Here's a hint, the answer actually lies in some of my most recent posts in the last week.

I know Mark got out of the clearing business after the JPM suit was settled. He is now an IB to FC Stone I believe. I have a feeling Mark is catching his second wind right now and is very close to launching a new project.


i actually spoke with FC Stone last week about getting set up with them as my clearing firm. i should have asked my rep if Markw as working for them
 
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