The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

Right, the monthly re-sets to zero the first day of the month so it can track the monthly A levels. I like to see a 6 or 7 hit on the monthly confirmation. This tells me that we most likely had 3 confirmed A ups that led to the monthly A up. Again, measuring the health of the move. This will tend to negate large one day moves on news that ultimately will have no follow through.
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Thanks


So if my real concern is tryig to track a "trend" continuation in the SP 500, what woud I do?

put together a 30 day line ? Also 5 day ?
 
Quote from optionbull:

Thanks


So if my real concern is tryig to track a "trend" continuation in the SP 500, what woud I do?

put together a 30 day line ? Also 5 day ?
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The 30 day is optimal for both identifying an existing trend and identifying the start of a new trend. Since the word "trend" is very subjective to many traders, what's it's doing in reality is measuring the "health" of the market. So regardless of how one defines a trend, the 30 day number line is giving you the reading of sustainable strength or weakness.

For trend continuation I have mentioned many times about the consolidation phase and the continuation of trend after that. The consolidation phase is captured through the 30 day number line re-set back to 0 or 1. Followed by a +9 confirmation again on the upside.
 
This is good stuff.

Do you have a model that runs these calculations for your number lines for stocks, or are you going back manually and checking them for A up's? Also if you are looking for a monthly A level, are you using the first day of the month as the opening range? Regards to the monthly A ups, how long much it trade above the A value for you to consider it a valid A up, half a day if you are using a full first day as the opening range?
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Alright, since I have neglected stocks on this thread a little bit, just to keep the dialogue going, I finally ran the number lines on AAPL and GOOG for those of you stock guys out there and going forward I'll provide some analysis on those two tickers.

For AAPL, the 30 day is -3. It has been working off the negative values the last few weeks where it was -16 back on Feb 4th. The monthly line is -1 and the 5 day is +1. And this confirms what we see on the chart which shows AAPL trading in the middle of the monthly range with downward momentum subsiding.

For GOOG, we have a 30 day of +16. The high was March 6th at +19. The monthly is +6 and the 5 day is +4. And as you can see, the monthly line confirms what we see on the chart that GOOG made a monthly A up at 820 and the momentum has been strong.

Again, the idea here is to look for clues in the number lines that are NOT being presented to traders staring at the charts. You are trying to get in EARLY or trying to find opportunities others are NOT seeing. We are also using these number lines to CONFIRM what we see on the charts. Hope this makes sense.
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Solid plus 3 day in AAPL today. Confirmed a weekly a Up and the 5 day is +6!
 
Quote from chicagodon:

This is good stuff.

Do you have a model that runs these calculations for your number lines for stocks, or are you going back manually and checking them for A up's? Also if you are looking for a monthly A level, are you using the first day of the month as the opening range? Regards to the monthly A ups, how long much it trade above the A value for you to consider it a valid A up, half a day if you are using a full first day as the opening range?
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The number lines are qualitative. So manual analysis is needed. I use the first day of the month for monthly and full day above for confirmation. That is not the right way, it's simply the way I do it.
 
Thanks Mav. I've thought about trying to write a VBA to be able to calculate a number line for a small portfolio of stocks. The biggest problem I see will be the time function, as the A and C values will be pretty easy along with the opening range. Maybe this will be my spring project.

As far as weekly levels, how can AAPL already have a weekly A UP on a monday? Are you just constantly rolling the past 5 days data?
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Thanks Mav. I've thought about trying to write a VBA to be able to calculate a number line for a small portfolio of stocks. The biggest problem I see will be the time function, as the A and C values will be pretty easy along with the opening range. Maybe this will be my spring project.

As far as weekly levels, how can AAPL already have a weekly A UP on a monday? Are you just constantly rolling the past 5 days data?
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Weekly A ups are rare but on large moves, they happen. Weekly's start over every Monday. No rolling.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Weekly A ups are rare but on large moves, they happen. Weekly's start over every Monday. No rolling.
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Thanks, if you don't want to give away your secret sauce I understand.

What are you using for the opening range and time spent above the A values for weekly values?

Fisher states 20mins for the opening range on a given day, then 1/2 that above the A values. This means that on a given day the opening range is roughly 5% of the day, so roughly 2.5% for the time spent above the A value.

The normal number of trading hours in a week is 32.5 (1950minutes), the opening range would be 97 minutes (5% of 1950), so maybe round down to the first 90 mins, then use 45 mins above that value for confirmed A ups?
 
Quote from chicagodon:

Thanks, if you don't want to give away your secret sauce I understand.

What are you using for the opening range and time spent above the A values for weekly values?

Fisher states 20mins for the opening range on a given day, then 1/2 that above the A values. This means that on a given day the opening range is roughly 5% of the day, so roughly 2.5% for the time spent above the A value.

The normal number of trading hours in a week is 32.5 (1950minutes), the opening range would be 97 minutes (5% of 1950), so maybe round down to the first 90 mins, then use 45 mins above that value for confirmed A ups?
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Nice try! Hey, you know there are no wrong answers. Anywhere from 1 to 3 hours would make sense. Fisher starts his on Sunday night. You have to use something that makes sense to you. You don't know what kind of meds I'm on so you better not trust just what I say. :)
 
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