Every time I get the itch to try to short the market, the number lines remind me that there is a real bid in risk assets. This is one of the areas where the number lines really shine. When we get near a top, the number lines will get there first.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Guys, I've talked about this Yen breakdown before and I'm going to keep following it for those readers of this thread. I believe we are on the cusp of a monumental move in the currency land. As stocks continue to grind on no vol and the energy space trading sideways I believe the money to be made this year will be in currencies.
And for those of you that think you have missed the move, the move has not started yet. I'm talking about an outlier event here. I'm talking about a generational move.
I've attached a chart of various Yen pairs along with EUR/AUD which I like to follow. This chart shows the various pairs since they broke out in Nov. You can get an idea of who is leading the pack here.
And for those of you that think you have missed the move, the move has not started yet. I'm talking about an outlier event here. I'm talking about a generational move.
I've attached a chart of various Yen pairs along with EUR/AUD which I like to follow. This chart shows the various pairs since they broke out in Nov. You can get an idea of who is leading the pack here.
Attachments
I'm also going to start updating the number lines for most of these pairs here.
Here are the 30 day number lines:
USD/JPY: 19
EUR/AUD: 13
GBP/JPY: 8
EUR/JPY: 21
AUD/JPY: 23
As you can see, cable (pound) is one of the weaker currencies out there right now. For some odd reason no one is trying to short cable, instead people are trying to fade EUR/USD or USD/JPY.
In fact, the USD/JPY is not even the strongest pair. Both the EUR, AUD and CHF are all outperforming the USD/YEN pair.
This move in the EUR/JPY is spectacular as you can see. Up 22% in two months since the breakout. Guys, in currency land that is like AAPL going from 300 to 600 in 2 months.
I will tell you this now, the hedge funds who put up the biggest numbers this year will be heavily involved in these trades.
So stop complaining about the VIX and go where the action is.
Here are the 30 day number lines:
USD/JPY: 19
EUR/AUD: 13
GBP/JPY: 8
EUR/JPY: 21
AUD/JPY: 23
As you can see, cable (pound) is one of the weaker currencies out there right now. For some odd reason no one is trying to short cable, instead people are trying to fade EUR/USD or USD/JPY.
In fact, the USD/JPY is not even the strongest pair. Both the EUR, AUD and CHF are all outperforming the USD/YEN pair.
This move in the EUR/JPY is spectacular as you can see. Up 22% in two months since the breakout. Guys, in currency land that is like AAPL going from 300 to 600 in 2 months.
I will tell you this now, the hedge funds who put up the biggest numbers this year will be heavily involved in these trades.
So stop complaining about the VIX and go where the action is.
The next question on here by many will be how to trade these pairs. I'll highlight some of the important levels as they come up. But in the currency world, I believe in buying the pullbacks on the strong trends vs buying a breakout. These could be failed monthly A downs or failed weekly A downs or even failed intra-day A downs.
Also, something very important that I've mentioned many times on here. Pay attention to relative strength!!!!! These pairs do not all move lock step with each other. Pay attention to the leaders and the laggards. A very easy way to do this quantitatively is chart the cross pairs. For example, pull up a chart of the EUR/GBP and you will see that pair also breaking out. That very clearly demonstrates that EUR/JPY will outperform GBP/JPY, etc.
Also, something very important that I've mentioned many times on here. Pay attention to relative strength!!!!! These pairs do not all move lock step with each other. Pay attention to the leaders and the laggards. A very easy way to do this quantitatively is chart the cross pairs. For example, pull up a chart of the EUR/GBP and you will see that pair also breaking out. That very clearly demonstrates that EUR/JPY will outperform GBP/JPY, etc.
Quote from Maverick74:
I'm also going to start updating the number lines for most of these pairs here.
Here are the 30 day number lines:
USD/JPY: 19
EUR/AUD: 13
GBP/JPY: 8
EUR/JPY: 21
AUD/JPY: 23
As you can see, cable (pound) is one of the weaker currencies out there right now. For some odd reason no one is trying to short cable, instead people are trying to fade EUR/USD or USD/JPY.
In fact, the USD/JPY is not even the strongest pair. Both the EUR, AUD and CHF are all outperforming the USD/YEN pair.
This move in the EUR/JPY is spectacular as you can see. Up 22% in two months since the breakout. Guys, in currency land that is like AAPL going from 300 to 600 in 2 months.
I will tell you this now, the hedge funds who put up the biggest numbers this year will be heavily involved in these trades.
So stop complaining about the VIX and go where the action is.
Mav, do you have any levels for EUR/GBP?
I know EUR pulled back against USD, while GBP gained, but I am thinking of a longer term expression for a strengthening euro and weakening pound without adding the influence of USD. Today's pullback in EUR/GBP may lead to a long entry opportunity.
Quote from justrading:
Mav, do you have any levels for EUR/GBP?
I know EUR pulled back against USD, while GBP gained, but I am thinking of a longer term expression for a strengthening euro and weakening pound without adding the influence of USD. Today's pullback in EUR/GBP may lead to a long entry opportunity.
My monthly A down is around 8513. This thing really blew through the QTR A up. It's way back at 8224.
Quote from Maverick74:
My monthly A down is around 8513. This thing really blew through the QTR A up. It's way back at 8224.
Thanks Mav. Yes, the train left the station a while back. I only keep 1 eye on the major USD crosses.
EUR/GBP idea came about when I read that Soros is bullish on the Euro, then a couple of days later the news that the UK had slipped into a triple-dip recession. I figured if I looked at either against USD, then I would be factoring USD in whereas I was looking for a pure strong Euro / weak pound play. If I had jumped on it would have been for the last 2 days of the move and I prefer to enter on a pullback rather than chase.
Yesterday's pullback erased now, not sure if we have the makings of a range .8550-.8700
USD/JPY tagged the monthly A up at 94. Solid A ups across the board in the entire Yen complex.
Quote from Maverick74:
USD/JPY tagged the monthly A up at 94. Solid A ups across the board in the entire Yen complex.
Hey Mav, do you still find pivots useful in this overall strategy? Also, if you don't mind sharing some insights, where would one even start calculating the 30-day number line since it's a rolling period? Thanks in advance.