The ACD Method

[Quon]

Quote from smcmahon83:

So what is everyones favorite markets to trade ACD, and why?

Shane O'Mac?

Anywho, personally I like all markets. I don't do FX, but not because I don't think ACD works there, it does. I'm a big fan of crude lately, but really it all works. I deal in options for the most part, but equities are fine.

I think ACD goes beyond the stock market though. Just thinking back to my courses in statistics, you know how significant standard deviations are. If you think of ACD as a significant move beyond the resistance of 2 standard deviations, you can apply it to almost any data set. Something I'm working on now with the wife, (a teacher) is using ACD to see if we can track student learning outcomes. We're early in, but my thought would be that if you could raise the scores of a class to a significant level, then it's possible they may continue in a trend. Who knows if it'll work, but, worth looking at I think.

 

[justrading]

Quote from Quon:

Something I'm working on now with the wife, (a teacher) is using ACD to see if we can track student learning outcomes. We're early in, but my thought would be that if you could raise the scores of a class to a significant level, then it's possible they may continue in a trend. Who knows if it'll work, but, worth looking at I think.

In a strange way this does make sense. Human achievement tends to trend, then plateau, then a breakout is needed before another trend sets in. The 4 minute mile, the sub-10 second 100m, and many similar 'barriers' to greater achievement once broken are no longer limiting factors.

One could find similar examples in exploration, scientific discovery and invention, the list goes on.

Where the students are at the start of a period is like the opening range, take them beyond that and who knows where the next plateau will be.

 

[Maverick74]

Crude!!!!

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from smcmahon83:

So what is everyones favorite markets to trade ACD, and why?

Futures tend to work best because in general, they are more volatile. But I have yet to find a product where it doesn't work. I've even used ACD levels on mutual funds!!! FX works great on the longer macro levels.

With equities I have found it identifies trends better then any other indicator I've seen.

One of the nice things about ACD is it gives you very accurate target levels. As the old saying goes, the exits make the trade, not the entries.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Maverick74:

Bonds are NOT looking good. That QTR A down is going to get tagged one way or another.

And pretty much tagged. We got down to 145'16 tonight. QTR level is officially here. That's an 8 handle move folks from the failed QTR A up.

 

[Quon]

Quote from Maverick74:

And pretty much tagged. We got down to 145'16 tonight. QTR level is officially here. That's an 8 handle move folks from the failed QTR A up.

Yeah, crude looking to confirm the quarter A up here too. I would like to have seen it hang higher in the regular session, (came in a little and I didn't take it) but it looks good overnight.

We could have a nice move in the market here upon us.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Quon:

Yeah, crude looking to confirm the quarter A up here too. I would like to have seen it hang higher in the regular session, (came in a little and I didn't take it) but it looks good overnight.

We could have a nice move in the market here upon us.

Look at the QTR charts for gasoline and heating oil. Also, brent/wti spread blowing out huge to the upside. Brent has officially gone into backwardation.

 

[Maverick74]

Here is is a spread chart of gasoline over crude. Up 10% since the monthly A up in July.

 

[Maverick74]

Here is the steepener trade up almost 7% recently.

 

[Quon]

Quote from Maverick74:

Here is is a spread chart of gasoline over crude. Up 10% since the monthly A up in July.

Didn't know about UGA. Nice one! That'll be on the list from now on.

Thanks!