The ACD Method

Quote from kinggyppo:

expected move around 30, it will usually print inside at some point so the market makers can flatten. My guess is up 10-15 on the open tomorrow that it conservative. Gun to the head sell some OTM puts I will take the stock at 560. :)
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You're about to get hit king!
 
Hey Guys,

30 day number lines continue to show strength as the 5 day lines are re-setting into these month/quarter A downs. Something that I noted today was that the XLU 30 day line, (typically something that trades against the ES) has run from a value of 11 just 9 trading sessions ago, to 0 today. At the same time, the SPY's 30 day has moved from the high teens into the mid 20s...

Just something to watch into these key levels. We'll see what happens, but the data looks like we could hold.

Something out of Shan's book... the 5 day lines are in an uptrend over the past 20 days or so when charted, and have continued to make higher lows despite this recent re-set. My current value of 1 needs to hold in order to maintain that uptrend.
 
Quote from Quon:

Hey Guys,

30 day number lines continue to show strength as the 5 day lines are re-setting into these month/quarter A downs. Something that I noted today was that the XLU 30 day line, (typically something that trades against the ES) has run from a value of 11 just 9 trading sessions ago, to 0 today. At the same time, the SPY's 30 day has moved from the high teens into the mid 20s...

Just something to watch into these key levels. We'll see what happens, but the data looks like we could hold.

Something out of Shan's book... the 5 day lines are in an uptrend over the past 20 days or so when charted, and have continued to make higher lows despite this recent re-set. My current value of 1 needs to hold in order to maintain that uptrend.
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My monthly (static) number lines are all over the place. Showing a lot of chop really. My thesis about this month is playing out the way I thought although much choppier. The A levels on both sides are holding. I thought the market held in pretty well despite the nightmare AAPL was. That was a good tell.

I also like the action in Gold. I really don't think this market can rally without gold because a rally in gold shows that at least there is a chance of asset inflation. If bonds are right and we are entering a deflationary debacle, no way stocks go higher. In fact the fair value of the ES should be around 1000 with bonds at these levels. I don't believe the deflation story though. Bonds should come off, gold should breakout and equities should catch a small bid to re-test the monthly A up.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Also, we need Crude to hold it's bid. That's the only inflationary asset we have right now.
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Nice inside up action on the daily bars on top of the monthly A up in both CL and USO. Crude looks fantastic here, and could at least return to the quarterly A up. I'll be trying to get long crude tomorrow for a day or two possibly if I get a reason to.
 
Good commentary guys.

Here is one thing i've noticed...we have put in some nice chop in some of the sectors and indices in the last couple months. That type of action usually leads to a big break one way or the other. We won't be stuck in this choppy tape forever lol. Like you guys were pointing out, lots of competing signals both ways.

For now we are still stuck in this sideways tape, so it needs to be traded as such. When the market tips its hand one way or another we will know!
 
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