Thnx for posting!
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Thnx for posting!
Quote from Maverick74:
Shan and I had a "long" talk about this on Friday in the office. LOL.
Here is a summary of what I said. I am neither bullish nor bearish. I see the market through the lens of volatility and it's why I use and love ACD. June saw us trade from 1260 to 1375 pretty much in a straight shot up. I think the market has to absorb this move. I told Shan that I believe we will not break and confirm either the monthly A up or A down this month. That means with the monthly A up in ES at 1383, I think that level will hold. We may trade 1390 or the 1375 level may hold but I don't think we "confirm". On the downside that level is 1328. Again, we might trade down to 1315 or 1320 but we don't confirm. I think the market will be range bound.
I think any large move we get will happen in August and September. So right now that puts us right in the middle between the two goal posts. That means we could trade higher and fail and grind lower the rest of the month or we could hit the lower end of the range and grind back higher. I'm agnostic as to which is more likely to happen. Markets rarely move straight up or straight down. If they did, trading would be very very easy.
Having said this, there are plenty of stocks breaking out to new all time highs and many sector ETF's at or near 52 week highs. There is something for everyone.
So far this is playing out like I anticipated. We pretty much tested the monthly A down today in the ES which also was the weekly A down. Tomorrow will be the test. Remember we can break it but I don't think we will confirm. We also get the fed minutes tomorrow.
The number lines are holding up. They are not very strong, but they are mostly positive with many hovering around zero. I think we saw some really nice base building on the move up from 1260 to 1375. Hard to imagine we take all that away. But if we do confirm a monthly A down, my long thesis is gone. If we hold here, I think it's sure bet we test that 1383 level in the next 2 weeks.
Corn sitting right at the QTR A up at 741.20. Soybeans also at the QTR A up at 1576. Coffee going again. Bounced off the monthly A up and back up.
Monthly levels held again today in the indices. Volatility continues to get hit. Those are all bull items. Earnings have been awful so far and bonds have been on a tear. Those are the bear items. My thesis of a choppy range bound tape still holds. We are on the low end of the range though. I added some long exposure in the ES today via options.
Half expected an announcement from the FT at the close, (felt like one of those kinda days). NFLX hasn't tested it's weekly A down, (hanging near these highs of the week and showing some strength). Tomorrow is a small 3 day rolling pivot, and it's the third day in a row that the pivot has gotten smaller. Could be a trade there.
FB looking pretty good too. Got a nice failed weekly A down signal there. Could be a long trade in the next day, (big pivot however tomorrow).
FB looking pretty good too. Got a nice failed weekly A down signal there. Could be a long trade in the next day, (big pivot however tomorrow).
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...ampaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
I pointed this out today to Shan. Not sure if there is anything to it.
I pointed this out today to Shan. Not sure if there is anything to it.
Quote from Maverick74:
Monthly levels held again today in the indices. Volatility continues to get hit. Those are all bull items. Earnings have been awful so far and bonds have been on a tear. Those are the bear items. My thesis of a choppy range bound tape still holds. We are on the low end of the range though. I added some long exposure in the ES today via options.
I think the way they have taken vol out of this market is very telling. Whatever this market does, I expect for some dislocations to start holding. So correlations have continued unwinding and we have seen some things begin to show some tells.
Semi's and industrials are definitely showing some signs of weakness. Homebuilders, retail, energy, and the transports have been showing signs of strength. Watching the price action and looking at RS/RW will be very important this coming cycle
Quote from Maverick74:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/0...ampaign=Feed:+TheBigPicture+(The+Big+Picture)
I pointed this out today to Shan. Not sure if there is anything to it.
Joe mentioned in his book that he tends to buy in the afternoon. Something that stuck with me. Of course there's the old adage, "the best trade made in the middle of the day is the one not made at all..."
Today, makes sense. Impossible to read the Fed Minutes at 2pm, but probably digestible by 4.
: )