The ACD Method

Quote from kinggyppo:

some folks say it goes to par, let's hope so, won't be good for equities though. Good post on vol/bonds, thanks for that!
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I doubt it. If it goes to par it will take years to get there. I actually think the Euro can trade up to 150.
 
i have a feeling it depends on where/when china will support the euro, or conversely, where is the USD too high for their liking. wild ass guess, $1.15/$1.25 range will have to do, as they've given up holding on to $1.30 for now. the next spot down on the chart from here would be $1.18/$1.20, why wouldn't the machines gun for it, i'm sure there's a mess of stops/'support' in the $1.25-$1.20s by now, to ease into. "it's all ok."

why would anyone in the world (with the power to do so) buy the pair up to $1.45+ over the next year? not saying it can't/wont happen, only trying to understand what would be the dynamics of such a strong snap back from the cliff, to find wings, when everyone seems to think that the euro will be devalued to some degree in the future, no matter what happens short term.

glta!
 
Quote from pikerforlife:

i have a feeling it depends on where/when china will support the euro, or conversely, where is the USD too high for their liking. wild ass guess, $1.15/$1.25 range will have to do, as they've given up holding on to $1.30 for now. the next spot down on the chart from here would be $1.18/$1.20, why wouldn't the machines gun for it, i'm sure there's a mess of stops/'support' in the $1.25-$1.20s by now, to ease into. "it's all ok."

why would anyone in the world (with the power to do so) buy the pair up to $1.45+ over the next year? not saying it can't/wont happen, only trying to understand what would be the dynamics of such a strong snap back from the cliff, to find wings, when everyone seems to think that the euro will be devalued to some degree in the future, no matter what happens short term.

glta!
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You answered your own question, the very fact that everyone thinks that the euro will be devalued considerably going forward prob means it won't!
 
Quote from pikerforlife:

i have a feeling it depends on where/when china will support the euro, or conversely, where is the USD too high for their liking. wild ass guess, $1.15/$1.25 range will have to do, as they've given up holding on to $1.30 for now. the next spot down on the chart from here would be $1.18/$1.20, why wouldn't the machines gun for it, i'm sure there's a mess of stops/'support' in the $1.25-$1.20s by now, to ease into. "it's all ok."

why would anyone in the world (with the power to do so) buy the pair up to $1.45+ over the next year? not saying it can't/wont happen, only trying to understand what would be the dynamics of such a strong snap back from the cliff, to find wings, when everyone seems to think that the euro will be devalued to some degree in the future, no matter what happens short term.

glta!
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I didn't say it was going there next week. My opinion is Greece and Italy and all of southern Europe are dragging the Euro down. If Germany dropped the dead weight that is southern Europe, they would have the strongest currency in the world. Remember, the Euro for all practical purposes is the old Deutschmark. That was the strongest currency in the world before the Euro. Back in the 80's and 90's when there was a crisis, no one was buying dollars, they were buying Marks! If Greece does not leave the Euro and they start floating these Euro bonds then the Euro is going south. No way to stop it. But if Europe gets divied up into a northern Euro and southern Euro of sorts, mark my words, that northern Euro will be as solid as Oak.
 
Quote from Shanb:

Here's a link for a slow day like today, Jack Schwager has a new Market Wizards book out. Here is a podcast with Covel that was released a couple days ago.

http://trendfollowing.libsyn.com/we...-trend-following-manifesto-with-michael-covel
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One of the things that struck me here was how uncommon the idea of taking profits along the way could be to the average investor/trader. In general, great find here Shan. I'll be interested to check out the book. Especially the interview with the trader that his son worked with.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I didn't say it was going there next week. My opinion is Greece and Italy and all of southern Europe are dragging the Euro down. If Germany dropped the dead weight that is southern Europe, they would have the strongest currency in the world. Remember, the Euro for all practical purposes is the old Deutschmark. That was the strongest currency in the world before the Euro. Back in the 80's and 90's when there was a crisis, no one was buying dollars, they were buying Marks! If Greece does not leave the Euro and they start floating these Euro bonds then the Euro is going south. No way to stop it. But if Europe gets divied up into a northern Euro and southern Euro of sorts, mark my words, that northern Euro will be as solid as Oak.
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Eventually, this solution will lead to war. What kind of war, who knows? But war it will be.
 
Quote from RCG Trader:

Eventually, this solution will lead to war. What kind of war, who knows? But war it will be.
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already there,instead of a cold war,it's a finacial or currency war
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Weekly A down in the ES 1323.
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This level still rules since Mav posted on 5/15. Shorted it today there, never moved up 2 ticks, straight down to 1318. Thanks again Maverick.
 
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