The ACD Method

Quote from Quon:

One on my radar:

For the gold bugs out there, looks like gold has failed the yearly A up, (which implies that it should at least try for the A down). Folks seem to want to believe that Bernanke is going to go ahead and continue to ease the dollar, but the dollar is looking pretty good lately, and despite what you may have heard, there was no mention of quantitative easing in the last Fed announcement, (rather just that an accommodative policy would continue - and this could mean many things).

FWIW
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Still like that short gold trade. Wouldn't necessarily enter here though. Looking to see what happens here as it tests my yearly level. 146.89 in GLD. It bounced down here last week, but not looking so hot this week.
 
Guess there's still some hope for a bounce this week. Thought the market was going to be in for it when the weekly a ups didn't seemingly hold yesterday, and here we bounce in the weekly OR in the S&P. Guess the trend continues to be "we'll see," and "the next (day/week) will be important."
 
Quote from Quon:

Guess there's still some hope for a bounce this week. Thought the market was going to be in for it when the weekly a ups didn't seemingly hold yesterday, and here we bounce in the weekly OR in the S&P. Guess the trend continues to be "we'll see," and "the next (day/week) will be important."
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AAPL back above the weekly A up. It is so hard to get long this stock. Either the world is coming to an end or this stock goes vertical. You have to pick your poison.

Here are my three tells.

Bonds are my VIX. Throw the old VIX out the window. When bonds pop and roll over, that is vol getting crushed. Gold is your deflation tell. If they are selling Gold, they are betting on deflation and lower risk assets. AAPL is your spec money. AAPL is the FIRST thing everyone will buy when they want to buy risk.

So again, AAPL, Bonds, Gold, those are my tells. Throw the spoos out the window. Absolutely useless to gauge anything from that.
 
Nice move in that LCC. Failed the monthly A down Friday/Monday, and plowed right through the monthly A up yesterday/today.

Nice
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Today we finally got that wick on the failed QTR A up on soybeans. I got in prematurely at the monthly level anticipating a failed QTR A up.

Shan has given me a little bit of grief over this trade using terms like "fader", etc. LOL. He knows me to primarily being someone who goes with the trend. As I've mentioned before, strong trends tend to end at the QTR levels and beans have rallied almost 50% in a few months.

I am not short futures and I have no upside risk. What I do have is a nice shot to make some money on the downside.
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I closed this trade today. Bought the spread for a penny and sold it at a 10 1/2 today.

fut_chart.ashx
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Weekly, monthly and QTR A downs. Looks like a great long King! :)
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some folks say it goes to par, let's hope so, won't be good for equities though. Good post on vol/bonds, thanks for that!
 
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