The ACD Method

Mclellan Oscillator at -111. We have only breached this level 4 times in the past 2 years and it has followed been followed by a bounce both times...lets see what happens on Monday :)
 

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Quote from Shanb:

Mclellan Oscillator at -111. We have only breached this level 4 times in the past 2 years and it has followed been followed by a bounce both times...lets see what happens on Monday :)
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Looking at the charts of the major sectors...we have confirmed quarterlies in the all of major sectors except the reits and the homebuilders.

Everything is techincally broken and although there may be a short term bounce this market is telling us alot of things and it isn't telling us that this is over yet...going to be hard to for alot of sectors to have a meaningful move out of this WITHOUT taking some time to work off these number lines. Now that can happen in varying degrees of price and time, but everyone should take notice of this

Looking at the numberlines...especially the thirty days we have alot of weakness right now. We have fresh confirmations in a number of sectors including, QQQ, XLF, XLB, FXI, TBT, and SPY will be there unless we get a +3 on monday.
 
Quote from Shanb:

Looking at the charts of the major sectors...we have confirmed quarterlies in the all of major sectors except the reits and the homebuilders.

Everything is techincally broken and although there may be a short term bounce this market is telling us alot of things and it isn't telling us that this is over yet...going to be hard to for alot of sectors to have a meaningful move out of this WITHOUT taking some time to work off these number lines. Now that can happen in varying degrees of price and time, but everyone should take notice of this

Looking at the numberlines...especially the thirty days we have alot of weakness right now. We have fresh confirmations in a number of sectors including, QQQ, XLF, XLB, FXI, TBT, and SPY will be there unless we get a +3 on monday.
More...

Shan's right. While we're probably close to a bounce, it's pretty likely we don't see a great June. It'll take new quarterly levels in July before we can get moving to the upside again really. Just my opinion...
 
Quote from Shanb:

Mclellan Oscillator at -111. We have only breached this level 4 times in the past 2 years and it has followed been followed by a bounce both times...lets see what happens on Monday :)
More...

Closely timed to QE's starting. Smell #3?
 
I have been reviewing some recent history that is maybe relavant to todays
problems. It seems that they havent even begun "fixin" things in todays crisis.
Below are 3 sharp market reversals from 2011. They were fixing things then and this involved numerous summits, spin, and plunge protection
tactics. Weekend shorts are crushed by these... or was that 2008?

Anyway in some way shape or form history may repeat. (Maybe with the coordinated easing)
Maverick has already stated how the switch flips off then on instantly and
this is remarkably so.

I have market replay and have found that when things turn.... initially the
Smallcaps and Financials were bought first and hard. Reflexive.
This is how I would TRY to play it on day one or two.

Gold was mixed/strange even though dollar and bonds down.
Oil great, and, euro steady but seemed to require more time to digest news.

Selling volatility SVXY might be good or maybe AAPL-VXX



1) The FT rumor and 3:20 PM meltup:
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/62097/stock-market-news-for-october-4-2011
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/62163/stock-market-news-for-october-5-2011


2) Thanksgiving:
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/65246/stock-market-news-for-november-25-2011
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/65320/stock-market-news-for-november-28-2011
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/65386/stock-market-news-for-november-29-2011
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/65467/stock-market-news-for-november-30-2011

Notice how the following minor detail wasnt mentioned in previous NOV30 peice

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...anks-lower-interest-rate-on-dollar-swaps.html

3) And finally to begin the market meltup into April
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/66566/stock-market-news-for-december-20-2011
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/66637/stock-market-news-for-december-21-2011


Nothing is ever the same or clear as the past and I will look at price action across the board and apply ACD rather than ponder "is this it"?
 
Ok guys, expecting a bounce in the next couple days. I am looking at ZB right now..Fresh break to new highs on an igniting bar. If ZB can take back the halfway mark of that day(147.18), we should get a bounce in the market. Really key level to watch for monday we held it to the tick on friday.
 

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Quote from Shanb:

Ok guys, expecting a bounce in the next couple days. I am looking at ZB right now..Fresh break to new highs on an igniting bar. If ZB can take back the halfway mark of that day(147.18), we should get a bounce in the market. Really key level to watch for monday we held it to the tick on friday.
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Are you trying to jinx me? :)
 
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