The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

Number lines are all about relative value. As Shan said, you have to look at everything. I use a 30 day rolling for trend, 5 day rolling for momentum and a static monthly. All used for relative value purposes.

FWIW, my 5 day number lines were negative going into this last leg down.
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Thanks Mav, I use only RTH data so my number line has had little movement, I may neet to reconsider that!
 
Quote from sarue:

Thanks Mav, I use only RTH data so my number line has had little movement, I may neet to reconsider that!
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Also, something Shan has turned me onto is not just the absolute number on the 5 day but also the net change. When you see large moves up or down 5 to 10 pts they show a strong shift in momentum.

For example, DIA went from +9 to -4 from may 2nd to may 9th. A change of 13 pts in one week! That is very very bearish!
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Number lines are all about relative value. As Shan said, you have to look at everything. I use a 30 day rolling for trend, 5 day rolling for momentum and a static monthly. All used for relative value purposes.

FWIW, my 5 day number lines were negative going into this last leg down.
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when we retested back at 1400 and failed, the numberlines were showing some weakness.

Looking at targets for this corrective move, 1300 seems to be the level to watch....lots of technical targets lining up there. Thats only a little over 30 handles away...we could easily get there! Now if we held 1300 and bounced, you could get a very strong move off that level!
 
Also, looking over my number lines, I see a lot of A downs on this last leg down. I don't know why you are saying all the moves are happening over night. I think we only had two days this month with any kind of meaningful move over night.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Also, looking over my number lines, I see a lot of A downs on this last leg down. I don't know why you are saying all the moves are happening over night. I think we only had two days this month with any kind of meaningful move over night.
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My daily number line for SPY has been zero five of the last six days and the sixth day on May 9 was a +3. SPY has been testing the A up or down, but not confirming either. Clearly, my method is different from others, but it's been pretty good. For example today my A values are:

SPY 133.61 and 135.09
QQQ 63.35 and 64.06
IWM 77.61 and 78.76
DIA 126.52 and 127.72

I'm very comfortable with my methodology, the IWM A down was a direct hit. The QQQ A up was a direct hit and the SPY/DIA highs were within pennys of the A up. However, all earned a zero on the number line, similar to the past week or so.
 
Quote from sarue:

My daily number line for SPY has been zero five of the last six days and the sixth day on May 9 was a +3. SPY has been testing the A up or down, but not confirming either. Clearly, my method is different from others, but it's been pretty good. For example today my A values are:

SPY 133.61 and 135.09
QQQ 63.35 and 64.06
IWM 77.61 and 78.76
DIA 126.52 and 127.72

I'm very comfortable with my methodology, the IWM A down was a direct hit. The QQQ A up was a direct hit and the SPY/DIA highs were within pennys of the A up. However, all earned a zero on the number line, similar to the past week or so.
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They might be perfect intra-day but if your number line showed no movement during that 70 handle selloff in the spoos, you might want to look into that. What good is it if they "hit" intra-day if you are a swing trader or longer term trader who is missing 70 handle moves right? You follow?

If you are simply daytrading then I'm not sure why you would be concerned about the overnight moves and the lack of capture on the longer term swing moves. Just providing food for thought here.
 
Are you watching the number lines?

Yes I am watching the numberline. I do see in the backdrop of what is
happening in Europe and to other assets, how relatively strong US stock indexes are.
I am looking for the 1345ish ES level to hold for resistance tonight/tommorrow or else it will be NEXT.
However, I do not think the chances are good that 1345 holds.
 
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