The ACD Method

[mfbreakout]

Lot of instruments have shrinking pivot for tomorrow.

dates are 5/3, 5/4, /5/7.

CL= 87,57,43

rHO-heat= 139,107,24

rNRB- RBOB= 139,107,60

Coffee= 2.35, .58, .10

These are meaningful in terms of VOLATILITY when they have 3 consecutive days of falling values.

For example for S&P values are 3.92, 5.92 and .67.

It would have been meaningful if 2nd day value was lower than 3.92 but it is higher.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from mfbreakout:

Lot of instruments have shrinking pivot for tomorrow.

dates are 5/3, 5/4, /5/7.

CL= 87,57,43

rHO-heat= 139,107,24

rNRB- RBOB= 139,107,60

Coffee= 2.35, .58, .10

These are meaningful in terms of VOLATILITY when they have 3 consecutive days of falling values.

For example for S&P values are 3.92, 5.92 and .67.

It would have been meaningful if 2nd day value was lower than 3.92 but it is higher.

Damn man, I give up. LOL. My pivot values for crude are no where near his. Are my basic math skills that bad? I'm using the full 24 hour session for pivots. Maybe that's why.

Mfb, do you know if he only uses rth?

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Damn man, I give up. LOL. My pivot values for crude are no where near his. Are my basic math skills that bad? I'm using the full 24 hour session for pivots. Maybe that's why.

Mfb, do you know if he only uses rth?

As long as both of you will be selling soon or buying soon, is it that important?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

As long as both of you will be selling soon or buying soon, is it that important?

Not sure what you mean by that. The narrow pivots are not a directional indicator, they are a measurement of volatility. So they are suppose to give you an idea of when the high volatility days are. The math is pretty straight forward and I'm just perplexed how are numbers can be so far off unless he is only using RTH hours.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Yeah Fish brought up one of the points he made in his book. And one that I believe has a lot of merit. If something is going up or down and can be easily explained, the move is at best suspicious and at worst, a trap. It's when you get large moves that don't make sense and no one has a logical reason for it, those are the real moves. I see this every day. Case in point being the bond move I called last July.

Going into the debt ceiling debacle bonds were catching a strong bid and no one knew why. It was a forgone conclusion that bonds were going to crash after our debt rating was to get downgraded but price did the opposite. And that was the move of the year.

So until someone can explain what is happening in crude, I would not get long.

BTW, there are no explanations for the rally in nat gas either.

A derivative of buy the rumor and sell the news?

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Not sure what you mean by that. The narrow pivots are not a directional indicator, they are a measurement of volatility. So they are suppose to give you an idea of when the high volatility days are. The math is pretty straight forward and I'm just perplexed how are numbers can be so far off unless he is only using RTH hours.

I mean that as a swing trader, you have range of tolerance, so to speak. And what the heck are you doing up at this hour?

If you and Fish have close numbers, that is good enuf for swing traders to pull trigger, no?

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

A derivative of buy the rumor and sell the news?

Sort of. Buy the rumor, sell the news presupposes that you know what the rumor is. We have no idea if there even is a rumor. But in a way there are some similarities in that once we find out the "news" the move will be over.

 

[RCG Trader]

I also get the contracting pivots, but I would imagine that there would be a tell as to the direction of the breakout. Just postulating, that is all.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

I mean that as a swing trader, you have range of tolerance, so to speak. And what the heck are you doing up at this hour?

If you and Fish have close numbers, that is good enuf for swing traders to pull trigger, no?

I've got work to do! I always go over my charts when I get back from the gym. I have a lot of oxygen flowing to the brain. Best time to do research.

As far as swing trading, I think the narrow pivots can help you time the breakouts better. So it does help if you can anticipate the volatility.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Sort of. Buy the rumor, sell the news presupposes that you know what the rumor is. We have no idea if there even is a rumor. But in a way there are some similarities in that once we find out the "news" the move will be over.

Yeah, I get that, your macro views are definitely solid. I gotta admit that I was a bit hurt that there was no mini crash of something. Nice move in the Aussie during the Asian and early Euro, but no follow in the States. Frustrating.