The ACD Method

Quote from Shanb:

LOL..c'mon king. I trade everyday! I know we had the a couple jobs numbers come out this week!

My point was...that the weakness in crude was very pronounced. Hell Crude actually led us on the way down on Thursday.
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ok then who was bidding up bonds at 2 am on tuesday and why?
 
this is what I have taken out the acd thread so far mostly due to Mav:

breakout vs reversion to the mean
price action
acd levels
long vol = long bonds
spreading

Shan I was very struck personally that bonds got bid huge before adp on wednesday, but seriously take what I say with a grain of salt, listen to Mav he is very wise. :)
 
Quote from kinggyppo:

this is what I have taken out the acd thread so far mostly due to Mav:

breakout vs reversion to the mean
price action
acd levels
long vol = long bonds
spreading

Shan I was very struck personally that bonds got bid huge before adp on wednesday, but seriously take what I say with a grain of salt, listen to Mav he is very wise. :) [/QUOTE

King, good observation on bonds. There has been a consistent bid there for a while :)

BTW...I do listen to Mav, in fact I sit next to him everyday. He is a good friend and a good teacher. Both me and him were in fact surprised by the extent of the drop on friday. Through some careful maneuvering he was able to hedge himself against the drop :). I guess we will see what happens on monday!
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Quote from Maverick74:

Nat Gas looks very strong. The only headwind it has now is CNBC is talking about it nonstop and everyone appears to be bullish. That is going to make this trade very choppy. But the nat gas curve is getting very steep which usually is very bullish.

The ACD levels look great. That 2.38 level in my opinion is going to get blown out. There is no such thing as a triple top. Markets test levels they are about to break. Having said that, nat gas is not AAPL and it does not trade like a stock. This product will be choppy. Much better and safer to buy the dips then the breakouts. Look for failed weekly A downs and intra-day A downs to get long.
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Yeah, I waited for that test of the weekly A up on Wednesday, (when the news about Arnold hit) to get long for the first time. I'm happy to add on further pull-backs, but the encouraging bit for me was that while EVERYTHING made a -2; -3; or -4 week, NG made a +2!

Relative strength much?

You're right though, I cringe every time I hear someone on CNBC talk about it. That bit on the closing bell Thursday where they mentioned that it took the 50 day really bummed me out...

As I mentioned, my multi-week number line added a +4 to NG this week, (dropped a -2 added a +2 this week) so looking for a failed weekly, or a test of the weekly A up and pull-back to the weekly OR. We'll see right?
 
So here's a question that I'm kinda flip flopping on in my head after this week's action:

Was this a -4 week in most sectors, or a -3?

This is totally a "what does everyone think" question, I'm not sure there's a "right" answer. Obviously the action SUCKED. But the trouble I'm having is that while the S&P knocked the cover off the ball Tuesday morning and got well above my weekly A up, it also rolled over and died without a close above the level. So while from a price and time standpoint I might typically say, "yeah, ok, it was a confirmed weekly A up on Tuesday before it came crashing down," I also can't help but think that the action never really confirmed the weekly.

I dunno, just dealing with how to assign the value with my number line. Again, it's somewhat a matter of opinion I guess, but the highs of Tuesday were well above my level too.

:confused:
 
Quote from Shanb:

Quote from kinggyppo:

this is what I have taken out the acd thread so far mostly due to Mav:

breakout vs reversion to the mean
price action
acd levels
long vol = long bonds
spreading

Shan I was very struck personally that bonds got bid huge before adp on wednesday, but seriously take what I say with a grain of salt, listen to Mav he is very wise. :) [/QUOTE

King, good observation on bonds. There has been a consistent bid there for a while :)

BTW...I do listen to Mav, in fact I sit next to him everyday. He is a good friend and a good teacher. Both me and him were in fact surprised by the extent of the drop on friday. Through some careful maneuvering he was able to hedge himself against the drop :). I guess we will see what happens on monday!
More...

Yes, being a skilled options artist comes in handy sometimes. It's precisely why I like to trade these macro positions with options vs straight futures.

I came in Friday morning and sprung into action. The price action in crude was horrible. Those weekly levels in crude next week will be huge.
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Speaking of natural gas, here are some of the names in that space that have been trading well this year despite the sharp selloff in natty.

CPNO, NGLS, NI, EPD, OKE, EP, WES, LNG, GTLS, PXD, CQP, HK, SD
 
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