The ACD Method

Quote from Frank Furter:

LOL ... I didn't know you were the keeper of all levels. I have made some live calls this week showing my levels, trading real money, not throwing out a generic "making an A-Up in so and so".

Geez ... I have started several posts by saying this is "my" take on it. What is your deal?
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Everyone here is using different levels. For the record, we blew through my weekly levels as well on Nat Gas and Crude. I'm not saying your levels are wrong, but you want to be careful they are not too wide if you are a breakout trader. You do NOT want to pay up for crude or nat gas as they can punish you on false breakouts.

Also, for the record, I am trading real money as well and I've been long Nat Gas for a week. I missed the breakout on crude but will be getting long on the close today.
 
Quote from Frank Furter:

LOL ... I didn't know you were the keeper of all levels. I have made some live calls this week showing my levels, trading real money, not throwing out a generic "making an A-Up in so and so".

Geez ... I have started several posts by saying this is "my" take on it. What is your deal?
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For what it's worth, the "generic" call is actually the best call to make. None of us have the same levels, so why should someone say, "hey look at this perfect A at level x?"

That said, I also have confirmed weeklies. I think I'd err on the side of Shan here. Might want to take another look at that weekly level.
 
Quote from Quon:

For what it's worth, the "generic" call is actually the best call to make. None of us have the same levels, so why should someone say, "hey look at this perfect A at level x?"

That said, I also have confirmed weeklies. I think I'd err on the side of Shan here. Might want to take another look at that weekly level.
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Thanks but no thanks. I have been using these levels for quite some time and have been very profitable with them so while I am always looking to tweak, I haven't found anything better. I am a software developer and have coded and tested thousands of variations as Im sure many have. This is what I use because my stats say this gives me the best odds for success.

I never once hinted that everyone should use my levels. Again, several times I said "my take on it". Take it or leave. Surely you dont read ET and believe it all. It was a post of what another trader was doing, take it, leave it, who cares.

This thread has really become a contradiction, it goes from use whatever levels you want as long as your consistent, to your levels are wrong ... and to assume another users levels are of less value when you have absolutely no idea whether that user is profitable or losing his ass.

I will move on and start another thread which is probably best. I really do not consider my levels acd levels anyway. Have never read the book to use as a bias for developing what i use.

Good luck to all.
 
Quote from Frank Furter:

Thanks but no thanks. I have been using these levels for quite some time and have been very profitable with them so while I am always looking to tweak, I haven't found anything better. I am a software developer and have coded and tested thousands of variations as Im sure many have. This is what I use because my stats say this gives me the best odds for success.

I never once hinted that everyone should use my levels. Again, several times I said "my take on it". Take it or leave. Surely you dont read ET and believe it all. It was a post of what another trader was doing, take it, leave it, who cares.

This thread has really become a contradiction, it goes from use whatever levels you want as long as your consistent, to your levels are wrong ... and to assume another users levels are of less value when you have absolutely no idea whether that user is profitable or losing his ass.

I will move on and start another thread which is probably best. I really do not consider my levels acd levels anyway. Have never read the book to use as a bias for developing what i use.

Good luck to all.
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Frank, nobody is saying your levels are "wrong". What we are saying is that we have had HUGE moves in nat gas and crude and if your weekly levels have not triggered yet, I'm not sure how they would EVER trigger. At least for nat gas this week, this move has been huge.

All I've told people on this thread is that you want to adjust your levels for the type of trader you are. If you are a breakout trader, you want your levels to trigger a little early. If you are a counter trend trader and take the fades, you want them to be a little bit wider.

Nobody is saying there are absolute "correct" levels. But surely no one on here can argue the strength in crude and nat gas.

You don't need to get confrontational on here. Nobody was trying to attack you. I'm just trying to keep this thread clean. It has been for close to 900 pages now.
 
I get that Mav, I think people are projecting how they use their levels and just assume I am using mine the same way. I dont see that as my issue.

Using NG as an example, my signal to go long (if I was actively trading NG) came early last Wednesday. I dont know if that ranks early or late with everyone elses level. I do know that it would have been very profitable, and there has been no other signal since then saying to exit the trade.

So with that in mind, and how I would have traded it ... when I post it is approaching a upper level, or a-up as used here ... that is a target level for me if i think we are running out of gas, or a place to take notice if i still want to be long and a place for me to determine how much of a pullback i will live thru before ringing the register.

I think people here upper level or a-up and just assume I am looking to go long there when I would have already been long 5 days.
 
and last clarification .. the earlier chart and call on 6C ... that was taken on a touch of the weekly lower level based solely on the prior week confirming an upward bias. It was the ideal entry point to go long, not a place to go short as I think some would have used their levels.

Last post here, last two charts. I never stated I would be shorting Oil or NatGas at these levels ... I would have already been long looking for a reason to exit.

As I type this, those levels have no doubt been a pause point, and have been for the last 3 hours. They may blow thru them in the next 5 minutes, but that doesnt invalidate what i said .... I said the were pause points, points of decision based on the trader already having a position and a place to watch closely for exhaustion or continuation.

I thought I could bring a different perspective to this thread showing how levels are used by different traders but I think that will not find a use here.

Anyway no harm no foul. I will take this to another thread for anyone interested. Thanks and best of luck.
 

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Quote from Frank Furter:

and last clarification .. the earlier chart and call on 6C ... that was taken on a touch of the weekly lower level based solely on the prior week confirming an upward bias. It was the ideal entry point to go long, not a place to go short as I think some would have used their levels.

Last post here, last two charts. I never stated I would be shorting Oil or NatGas at these levels ... I would have already been long looking for a reason to exit.

As I type this, those levels have no doubt been a pause point, and have been for the last 3 hours. They may blow thru them in the next 5 minutes, but that doesnt invalidate what i said .... I said the were pause points, points of decision based on the trader already having a position and a place to watch closely for exhaustion or continuation.

I thought I could bring a different perspective to this thread showing how levels are used by different traders but I think that will not find a use here.

Anyway no harm no foul. I will take this to another thread for anyone interested. Thanks and best of luck.
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So do you have different sets of weekly and monthly levels? Do you recycle levels every week or use a confirmation from last week to trade this week? Just a bit unclear on what you are looking at! No need to start your own thread over a bit of disagreement lol
 
From Mr. Kingyppo,

man pretty good rally, zb still quite elevated any thoughts on this?

**********************

I sure dont know. It is hard to be optimistic about a continued rally with yeilds
so low. There is so much selectivity in the equity market to embrace a
slightly positive number and shrug off a negative number where i am finding the bond market doesnt do that.
Feds policy is low rates stonger than ever at this instant in time I think
due to the continuing deflation in the housing market. And, to keep rates low to service ennormous new debt by purchasing our own debt.(isnt this QE?) How can this policy ever end now?
Fed purchases end in June. Will they continue ?
Earnings and GDP are slowing (despite the 80ish % beat of the very low bar they SP500 earnings will still probably be 3ish% at best.)
The world is a mess. Gold and commodities says deflation or risk off, take your pick. Contraction in all economies,

The main thing I wonder about King is if this is the way its gonna be for now on ala Japan.
Rates moving from 2-3.5% on the ten years have given big swings/trends in price , yet is this over? Short sighted arent I.

Maybe a Romney induced optimism ,taxes, health care will put some cash to work and cause some inflationa and yeilds up. It only took a CPI report of .4% and
a no QE3 hint, and the economy is OK from the FOMC March minutes to
move ZN from 131 to 126ish. Short lived as Spain got some attention and our bad data. I'll shut-up now.
 
Quote from eurusdzn:

From Mr. Kingyppo,

man pretty good rally, zb still quite elevated any thoughts on this?

**********************

I sure dont know. It is hard to be optimistic about a continued rally with yeilds
so low. There is so much selectivity in the equity market to embrace a
slightly positive number and shrug off a negative number where i am finding the bond market doesnt do that.
Feds policy is low rates stonger than ever at this instant in time I think
due to the continuing deflation in the housing market. And, to keep rates low to service ennormous new debt by purchasing our own debt.(isnt this QE?) How can this policy ever end now?
Fed purchases end in June. Will they continue ?
Earnings and GDP are slowing (despite the 80ish % beat of the very low bar they SP500 earnings will still probably be 3ish% at best.)
The world is a mess. Gold and commodities says deflation or risk off, take your pick. Contraction in all economies,

The main thing I wonder about King is if this is the way its gonna be for now on ala Japan.
Rates moving from 2-3.5% on the ten years have given big swings/trends in price , yet is this over? Short sighted arent I.

Maybe a Romney induced optimism ,taxes, health care will put some cash to work and cause some inflationa and yeilds up. It only took a CPI report of .4% and
a no QE3 hint, and the economy is OK from the FOMC March minutes to
move ZN from 131 to 126ish. Short lived as Spain got some attention and our bad data. I'll shut-up now.
More...

good points macro correlations are tricky, they work till they don't. I would think bonds would have sold off harder by now..:)
 
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