The ACD Method

CORRECTION: After talking with Shandu today at Logical trader, my explanation of 30 day Cum +/- is wrong. It has nothing to do with 30 day cycle.

It is a number they use to calculate 30 day Cum ABCD along with daily ABCD number.

Since all of you calculate and maintain your own numbers and they are working, i will ignore logical trader numbers and keep using what is working.


This proves that different ACD traders have different 30 days ABCD numbers, they work as long used consistently.


I have started to think what the hell i am doing by paying $1800/year for subscription. I need to start calculating my numbers.


That's why it is meaningless to other ACD traders when someone post that as an example ES jumped off his weekly A down level to the tick.

As long as our direction is right we are good. I do not want to be short Crude when shanb is getting long at his monthly A down level.

I am sure new traders of ACD method will get more confused reading Maverick beans numbers are showing strength whereas Fish numbers are very bearish (lol). I guess that's what makes us discretionary traders.




Quote from mfbreakout:

1) yes for 4/26 for ES 30 day Cum ABCD is +9. ABCD value is +2.

2) 30 day Cum +/- refers to Fish theory of 30 days cycle. He

observed that pattern/price action repeats itself every 30 days.

He says he doe not know why it happens but it repeated enough

time that he started paying attention. So, for 4/26 value of -1

means that there is a probability of that on 4/27 pattern will get

repeated. I have so far not seen the value of this number. The

number of times this value produced anything seems to be

random. I just learned about this a month ago.

I will urge you to call Shandu at mnfcc at 516-295-7924. He is the

new guy who answers questions regarding ACD. You do not have

to be a subscriber. He will answer any questions on ACD.

The main reason I will like you to call him to get a sense of pivot

tracker. I find this sheet to be quite helpful. I do not understand

how they calculate it even though he explained it to me.


Pivot tracker sheet is attached.


3) Regarding beans. I have seen this happen many times when

30 days number lines looks bad but price action is different.

However price action is not smooth till number line firms up.

Meaning lot of failed A ups etc..


4) Can you post 5 day rolling numbers for Crude oil?


Thx
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Quote from mfbreakout:

Hi Shanb,

Here is my update on pivot tracker. I talked with help desk of logical trader.

For pivot tracker to be helpful in gauging VOLATILITY of an instrument, we need 3 days of contraction.

For example, 24, 16, 8.

If the numbers are like 4, 1 ,1 . It does not mean much as on the 3rd day number was the same. I mistakenly thought that one can get clues in to VOLATILITY by just looking at 1 day number.
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Ok cool, do you know how they get the pivot numbers? How they calculate them??
 
Quote from Maverick74:

So this is why I didn't short the futures. Beans up 29 cents overnight and blew through the QTR A up. Still no confirmation yet. I did put on a downside fly for basically free. I took a shot at a possible blow off top here and failed QTR. We still could fail here and come off. But if this baby goes limit up, I have no risk. This trade highlighted perfectly why you don't want to fade strong trends with futures.
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bump.. making us work for it Mav.... :)
 
Quote from Shanb:

Here's a trade idea that could be setting up here soon. Will be watching crude oil as a long. Crude has been real nightmare to trade this past couple weeks...it has been building a nice base this past month. Also showed good relative strength as it didn't come close to testing the quarterly Adown while almost risk asset came and tested their quarterlies.
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Love the price action in crude. Great recovery today. Had a solid plus 3 today with the failed A down and confirmed A up into the close.

The weekly A up is 105.50 but the level I want to watch is the monthly A down for May. If we should happen to get a test of that level, load the boat! If not, I think the confirmed weekly A up this week could be a fast trade to $110.

The price action in crude has many people confused with the record pile up in inventory and tensions calming down in the middle east.

Part of the strength in the bid is coming from the Brent/WTI spread narrowing. Keep an eye on that.
 
No, i did not ask for the calculation of the method. I will call again and see if i can figure out the method.

Quote from Shanb:

Ok cool, do you know how they get the pivot numbers? How they calculate them??
More...
 
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