The ACD Method

Quote from Shanb:

Have you found there to be a good correlation between volatility and the pivot trader numbers? Any examples?

Now I went over this pivot tracker sheet before and couldnt make anything of it....no idea how they are coming up with these numbers lol
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I only trade Crude and narrow pivot tracker value in majority of the cases means high volatility within a day or two.


You can look at the pivot tracker sheet for your instrument and look back and see if low numbers gave signals towards increased volatility.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

04-28-2012.

Coffee at 10 year support. 30 days number line is -1 but has improved form being at -17 couple of weeks ago.

Details of number lines can be seen at number lines pdf posted 2 days ago.
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Coffee has been bouncing off the monthly A down here at 175. That level is holding but only one more day in the month. The QTR A down is 165. That is the level to watch until we get next month's levels.
 

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Quote from Maverick74:

Coffee has been bouncing off the monthly A down here at 175. That level is holding but only one more day in the month. The QTR A down is 165. That is the level to watch until we get next month's levels.
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Yeah, I was very interested in the coffee trade this month, and it yielded some nice results on the equities side of things, (sbux was a great trade this month). I actually found it pretty interesting that they complained about commodity costs on the call given coffee's trajectory thus far in 2012.

I've noticed that KC just won't get significantly below the monthly though, so I'm hesitant that rising costs could put a damper on the trade from the equity side. I'll be interested to see what happens come May. If coffee keeps running lower I think you'll have a nice tailwind for DNKN and SBUX.
 
Here's a trade idea that could be setting up here soon. Will be watching crude oil as a long. Crude has been real nightmare to trade this past couple weeks...it has been building a nice base this past month. Also showed good relative strength as it didn't come close to testing the quarterly Adown while almost risk asset came and tested their quarterlies.
 

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My 2 cents on coffee ... retreated off the yearly lower level (cyan) within a few ticks on Wednesday, then fell to the lower weekly level (yellow line) Thur / Fri and bounced off that almost to the tick.

and soybeans ...
Soybeans closed way above the weekly upper level and appears headed toward the quarterly upper level of around 1540. Will see what happens and how it reacts to this weeks values and the new monthly values on Tuesday.
 

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Next chart are the levels on Bonds. We failed almost to the tick at the yearly A down. Very impressive. Last year we initially failed at the yearly A up before breaking out. And where was that breakout? The debt ceiling debacle in July!
 

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