The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

We are also sitting at the QTR A down in Copper. Very critical level here. It looks like it's going to come down to AAPL and the Fed. If we break these levels, 1300 will get tagged in days. If we bounce here I still think we will go lower but we could re-test 1390 or so before we fall.
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With so much economic stuff in the waiting how do you trade this, once the news are out, the move already happened, any ideas?
 
Working on a little something that I wanted to share with everyone, (get some feedback). I play mostly at the weekly levels, looking for confirmations or failures to position myself against.

Since many of you use the 5 day line to gauge strength for the coming day or so, (in order to sense where a move might come from) I thought for me, it'd make sense to use something like a 5 week number line to see what sectors might give me the best swing opportunities.

Ranking is the same as the daily number line. If an A up is made in a week I give it a +2, failure and confirmation gets a 3, failure a 1, etc.

Coming into this week I have the XLE at -8, and XLF at -4, so I'm looking to get short failed A ups in these sectors this week. I should add that I'm not just gonna get short because of what I've put together, but rather my bias will be to look for opportunities in those sectors at the weekly A up. Price action and time will ultimately determine the trades I take, (this is ACD after all).

Just throwing this out there for comment. Not sure if it's going to be at all meaningful, but XLF and XLE essentially failed their A ups today, (I don't initiate swing trades on Mondays, so I'm looking to enter early tomorrow). We'll see...
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

With so much economic stuff in the waiting how do you trade this, once the news are out, the move already happened, any ideas?
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Well, for starters, penetration of a level does not produce a signal. You need to confirm with time. On the monthly that is one full trading session.

Then once that happens, that doesn't necessarily mean you take a position. Like Quon said, you position yourself against the level. Could be through a weekly level or an intra-day level or even against a daily pivot.
 
Quote from Quon:

Working on a little something that I wanted to share with everyone, (get some feedback). I play mostly at the weekly levels, looking for confirmations or failures to position myself against.

Since many of you use the 5 day line to gauge strength for the coming day or so, (in order to sense where a move might come from) I thought for me, it'd make sense to use something like a 5 week number line to see what sectors might give me the best swing opportunities.

Ranking is the same as the daily number line. If an A up is made in a week I give it a +2, failure and confirmation gets a 3, failure a 1, etc.

Coming into this week I have the XLE at -8, and XLF at -4, so I'm looking to get short failed A ups in these sectors this week. I should add that I'm not just gonna get short because of what I've put together, but rather my bias will be to look for opportunities in those sectors at the weekly A up. Price action and time will ultimately determine the trades I take, (this is ACD after all).

Just throwing this out there for comment. Not sure if it's going to be at all meaningful, but XLF and XLE essentially failed their A ups today, (I don't initiate swing trades on Mondays, so I'm looking to enter early tomorrow). We'll see...
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Interesting idea. I think the 5 day rolling number line works great with the weekly levels. As do the monthly number lines with the monthly levels.

How is this for an idea. Calculate a pivot from the previous week. Take the high and low of the week then the high, low and close and create a weekly pivot range. That pivot range will be used then for the following week and will be used in conjunction with your weekly ACD levels. I think that would work very well. I actually really like the idea. :)
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Interesting idea. I think the 5 day rolling number line works great with the weekly levels. As do the monthly number lines with the monthly levels.

How is this for an idea. Calculate a pivot from the previous week. Take the high and low of the week then the high, low and close and create a weekly pivot range. That pivot range will be used then for the following week and will be used in conjunction with your weekly ACD levels. I think that would work very well. I actually really like the idea. :)
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Ok, I like this, so it'd be like the 3 day or daily pivot Fisher talks about, but would give me the type of price action tells over the course of the week. Above bullish, below bearish biases, and easy penetration or good A's through it would be strong moves. Pretty sure I could code that up in TOS too.

Thanks Mav
 
Nice ideas. Working on calculating last weeks pivot range lines and AUPS
and ADOWNS with the opening range .25 of the weekly ATR.
Here are some numbers below. Im going to try screening for long/short
candidates.

XLE Pivot from last week 69.04 high line
68.99 low line

XLE Open Range(.25 weekly atr) 68.09 high line
67.53 low line

XLE weekly AUP 68.31
XLE weekly ADOWN 67.31

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XLF pivot from last week 15.31 high line
15.23 low line

XLF opening range 15.01 high line
14.89 low line

XLF weekly AUP 15.05
XLF weekly ADOWN 14.85

It looks like the 3 period moving average of the weekly pivot seems good to determine trend by using its slope and whether weekly bars are above, below or both. Its a nice visual signpost. Good for my case, predominantly swing trades. 5 period seems to really lag.
The single period weekly pivot range lines seem too be the day traders
levels.
Quons idea of running Monday sounds good to get setups for the rest of week.
 
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