The ACD Method

[Shanb]

Quote from Quon:

It's funny, because despite all this, (and others may have different levels) I don't have hardly any confirmed quarterly A downs. Most everything has managed to bounce, and the few things that I thought might confirm coming into the week, (specifically health care) have managed to bounce or base somewhat.

Shan's right, almost everything has sold off after earnings, but so far, (and I say so far because tomorrow could be that day) most things have managed to remain above the quarterly levels. Look at AAPL, (not sure what others have for the quarter A down, but I have 581.98). Tested that level just Tuesday of this week after confirming that small four day H&S pattern, (coincidentally also a failed weekly A up last week). It bounced pretty hard off that quarterly level this week, (helps that the weekly A down and monthly A down were there too, as well as that last gap). Another example would be the XLK, (my quarterly at 29.18). As weak as it's been, it continues to bounce in that zone.

Just something interesting to note. I know lots of commentary has surrounded whether or not 2012 is just going to be another repeat of lousy mid-year action, or a limp into the third quarter. While the action in Q2 has been choppy, the lack of confirmed quarterly A downs are at least of note.

No confirmed quarterlies here...the number line comments were strictly pertaining the the short-term(3-5 days).

But yea well see, some key levels, also interesting to note FXI is near its Aup for the month. Money flowing into China, yep kinda lol

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Quon:

It's funny, because despite all this, (and others may have different levels) I don't have hardly any confirmed quarterly A downs. Most everything has managed to bounce, and the few things that I thought might confirm coming into the week, (specifically health care) have managed to bounce or base somewhat.

Shan's right, almost everything has sold off after earnings, but so far, (and I say so far because tomorrow could be that day) most things have managed to remain above the quarterly levels. Look at AAPL, (not sure what others have for the quarter A down, but I have 581.98). Tested that level just Tuesday of this week after confirming that small four day H&S pattern, (coincidentally also a failed weekly A up last week). It bounced pretty hard off that quarterly level this week, (helps that the weekly A down and monthly A down were there too, as well as that last gap). Another example would be the XLK, (my quarterly at 29.18). As weak as it's been, it continues to bounce in that zone.

Just something interesting to note. I know lots of commentary has surrounded whether or not 2012 is just going to be another repeat of lousy mid-year action, or a limp into the third quarter. While the action in Q2 has been choppy, the lack of confirmed quarterly A downs are at least of note.

This market looks like total shit right now. Here is how I look at QTR A levels. I have always said on here that they serve very little purpose except to mark the end of long term trends and call the bottoms in corrections. So far, that is what they have done. However, the number lines look like total crap and the price action is awful. If you put a gun to my head and told me to guess, I say the s&p 500 touches 1300 in weeks. And honestly, I'm not ruling 1260 out. Why 1260? Because that is unched on the year. That level will be a huge magnet.

Having said that, I'm pretty bullish the 2nd half of the year. I think we could touch 1500 by years end.

 

[eurusdzn]

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/04/19/counterparties-spanish-bond-yields-relief/

This info is everywhere and most is well known. Click on the "bad loans" link.
That is interesting. It will matter when it matters I guess. EWP and
Spanish banks are grinding down each day.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Maverick74:

This market looks like total shit right now. Here is how I look at QTR A levels. I have always said on here that they serve very little purpose except to mark the end of long term trends and call the bottoms in corrections. So far, that is what they have done. However, the number lines look like total crap and the price action is awful. If you put a gun to my head and told me to guess, I say the s&p 500 touches 1300 in weeks. And honestly, I'm not ruling 1260 out. Why 1260? Because that is unched on the year. That level will be a huge magnet.

Having said that, I'm pretty bullish the 2nd half of the year. I think we could touch 1500 by years end.

I have to say this again, the market is acting like shit. Today's price action was god awful. Pop on the open then sell them hard the rest of the day. Energy, financials, semis, tech and obviously AAPL looks like it's about to get cut in half. Personally I think AAPL will get down to 525 to 550. These number lines are awful and they have really been a great tell.

Meanwhile, the reits have been unstoppable. SPG, ESS and AVB all made new highs today.

 

[kinggyppo]

zb stuck at 142, trading right back in its channel.

 

[Maverick74]

Here is an update on the Yen race. I'm attaching a comparison chart of the 6 main yen pairs from the Feb 10th breakout.

In the lead now is GBP/JPY with a 7.50% return. In last place is AUD/JPY which got hit on the broad market sell off. CHF/JPY is tied for 2nd at 6% return.

 

[Maverick74]

Here is the comparison between only CHF/JPY and USD/JPY. As you can see, the swissy is still outperforming by 100 basis pts.

 

[Maverick74]

All the Yen pairs bounced off their Quarterly A downs to the pip! As I've mentioned before, the QTR levels are great for marking the swing lows in corrections. They also are great for showing the end of long term trends. I've attached the CHF/JPY chart for your enjoyment.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Maverick74:

All the Yen pairs bounced off their Quarterly A downs to the pip! As I've mentioned before, the QTR levels are great for marking the swing lows in corrections. They also are great for showing the end of long term trends. I've attached the CHF/JPY chart for your enjoyment.

Here is that attachment.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Maverick74:

Let's look at Nat Gas. People often ask what is the best way to try to pick a bottom in Nat Gas. Well, the best way probably is not to. The 2nd best way is when you have something that has been this weak for so long is to make your first entry a buy on strength, not weakness. In other words, wait for at least a confirmed weekly A up. Trying to buy at lower and lower lows is very dangerous. The only level I would try to buy even a small position on a bounce would be the failed QTR A down. I have noted many times on this thread that long term trends often end at the QTR levels.

So this month, we have the monthly A down in nat gas at 193.80 and the QTR A down at 189.30. This means we are in mans land here. This thing could still fall a lot further.

Here was my post back on April 9th. I mentioned that the QTR A down would be a reasonable target and sure enough, here we are. I also mentioned that QTR levels tend to mark the end of long term trends. That is not to say THIS Qtr level is the one but it's a reasonable entry here for a bottom picker with a tight stop. With a possible add on a weekly A up, adding into strength.