The ACD Method

This market has had some healthy rotation this past qtr. One sector that has paused for a bit and is showing some strength is real estate. Alot of these names have taken a break these past couple months and could be poised for a move.

Here one to look for, EQR. First close above 42 since August of last year. Breakout on very good volume.
 

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Quote from Soon2Bgreat:

...maybe, feel like too many have fallen victim to that trap, if I had to bet I'd say long tlt/short spy pays well next qrtr.:)
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Yikes, this sounds like a mean reversion trade to me. I'm not sure this is what ACD is really all about, (but we'll soon see how both trade).

Shan is 100% right. Haven't see the TBT make a monthly A up in forever, (so I got involved... a little too involved unfortunately :( ). Still, you have to think that price action Friday was a little tell.

My personal theory, (not that anyone should care) is that the break-out in the TBT came too late in the qtr for anyone to really get that involved. My mistake was taking the trade with just a few weeks left in the qtr. If weeklies die out by Wednesday/Thursday, and monthlies die out by the last week or so, then taking the TBT trade that late in the qtr wasn't something I should have expected follow through on. More like the first shot in the coming war.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Major breakdown last month in Live Cattle. First monthly A down of the year. [/B]
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This is particularly interesting given the early slaughter that took place in the face of the drought last year. We should have expected to see cattle move higher I believe, (good news/bad action?).
 
chart.ashx


And here's the chart that is really giving AAPL a run for it's money.
 
One on my radar:

For the gold bugs out there, looks like gold has failed the yearly A up, (which implies that it should at least try for the A down). Folks seem to want to believe that Bernanke is going to go ahead and continue to ease the dollar, but the dollar is looking pretty good lately, and despite what you may have heard, there was no mention of quantitative easing in the last Fed announcement, (rather just that an accommodative policy would continue - and this could mean many things).

FWIW
 

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...before-factory-employment-reports-this-w.html

ZN reversed sharply today on this fed action today.
It will be interesting to watch ZN when the fed is done in a couple days.
Maybe along with a tepid 205,000 jobs report. (Get it out there... no surprises) ZN will start a swing low.

Resistance at about 130.200 and support at about 129.020
I will be looking to sell at that resistance for a swing trade.

I still resort to more classic S/R levels. I got to look at ACD levels on
ZN in the next couple days and learn something.
 
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