King,
A case could be made that bond yeilds can be grouped
with the other risk assets.
Periods of financial crises, recession, defalation seem to cause bond yeilds to
tumle with commodities etc..
Governments / central banks re-inflates and yeilds rise with risk on.
I have spent some time looking for a cycle of deflate/ re-inflate where this did nor occur going back at least a
decade (glanced at crb cci back to 1970...still seems to hold) and couldnt find it.
Thats what seems different about the last few months.
The re-inflate cycle (Europe more than US) after Greece act2 meltdown in AUG/SEP was followed
by risk on but this inflationary action didnt cause yeilds to rise.
Two CPI's .3 and .4% , better data, Greenspan encouraging words last week and I read recently that
the bond market anticipates that he will be forced to break the pledge and raise rates in a year or so.
Rising yeilds are inflationary and historically inflation is bullish for commodities , thats all I can tell, but ..the dollar is
stonger(non - inflationary) and it appears that the 2002-2008 dollar downtrend is bottoming over the last few years.
For me, this is the 1st time I am realy looking at the hard right edge
of these asset classes and looking to sell ZN for a swing/position trade.
The past looks very clear to me. Ha !
A case could be made that bond yeilds can be grouped
with the other risk assets.
Periods of financial crises, recession, defalation seem to cause bond yeilds to
tumle with commodities etc..
Governments / central banks re-inflates and yeilds rise with risk on.
I have spent some time looking for a cycle of deflate/ re-inflate where this did nor occur going back at least a
decade (glanced at crb cci back to 1970...still seems to hold) and couldnt find it.
Thats what seems different about the last few months.
The re-inflate cycle (Europe more than US) after Greece act2 meltdown in AUG/SEP was followed
by risk on but this inflationary action didnt cause yeilds to rise.
Two CPI's .3 and .4% , better data, Greenspan encouraging words last week and I read recently that
the bond market anticipates that he will be forced to break the pledge and raise rates in a year or so.
Rising yeilds are inflationary and historically inflation is bullish for commodities , thats all I can tell, but ..the dollar is
stonger(non - inflationary) and it appears that the 2002-2008 dollar downtrend is bottoming over the last few years.
For me, this is the 1st time I am realy looking at the hard right edge
of these asset classes and looking to sell ZN for a swing/position trade.
The past looks very clear to me. Ha !
