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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
OK, another mea culpa on my part. This SHLD. No reason for anyone not to be long this including me. I've just got too much going on right now that is distracting me. But this is a solid trade. Classic short squeeze but this could go on for another 20% higher.
Quote from Maverick74:
3) Number line is very important. I use a monthly number line and my number line last month was very negative when it made a monthly A down. This is why I don't like Fisher's 30 day number line. It rolls over the values from the previous month into the new month which I think contaminates the bias.
I wasnt aware that you reset the line at the beginning of each month. It makes sense though for the reason you stated.
Question though, if it is early in the month and you get a strong reading, do you weigh it the same as other times in the month?
I ask b/c the numberline doesnt have to get rid of older negative numbers when it starts fresh so it might get a stronger reading right off the bat, and might not be as accurate?
DO you find this to be the case early in the month?
Quote from mdl060374:
I wasnt aware that you reset the line at the beginning of each month. It makes sense though for the reason you stated.
Question though, if it is early in the month and you get a strong reading, do you weigh it the same as other times in the month?
I ask b/c the numberline doesnt have to get rid of older negative numbers when it starts fresh so it might get a stronger reading right off the bat, and might not be as accurate?
DO you find this to be the case early in the month?
No, actually that is precisely why I like it. The one thing that kind of annoyed me a little was the dropping of old values. It could create a huge surge in the number line simply by dropping off -2 and -4 days from over 6 weeks ago! As a price action trader I want to know what is happening NOW!. So I really like the monthly re-sets.
Quote from Maverick74:
No, actually that is precisely why I like it. The one thing that kind of annoyed me a little was the dropping of old values. It could create a huge surge in the number line simply by dropping off -2 and -4 days from over 6 weeks ago! As a price action trader I want to know what is happening NOW!. So I really like the monthly re-sets.
Cool. THanks.
I also always kind of wondered about the dropping off of numbers. I figured it was some sort of cyclical thing Fisher had identified, and he found value in it.
SHLD. Look, this thing is very very heavily shorted with a small float. Nothing stopping it. But you have to get in at the breakout. The monthly A up was 38.83. The last monthly A up this stock had was back in Oct went it went from 61 to 83. Another 50% move.
Quote from mdl060374:
Cool. THanks.
I also always kind of wondered about the dropping off of numbers. I figured it was some sort of cyclical thing Fisher had identified, and he found value in it.
I think for much longer term trades, there certainly is value in using a rolling 30 day number line. My trades don't last that long though.
It looks like we had again a failed A down in the main indices, right? People keep buying the dips and we are seeing bonds finally moving downwards... I'm happy in this trending environment but can't help to worry about the complancency of market participants, at some point severe damage will come. I'm trying to get ready when volatility and mean reversion strickes back... if it does.
The VIX cracks the 19 level!