The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

ESI made a monthly A up at 62.52 and after two sharp days up then consolidated for a week. I love that pattern. You usually get a sharp breakout to the upside after. ESI is a tricky stock though as it tends to be defensive. Shows nice strength when the market is weak and weakness when the market is strong. Since we had a strong bid in the ES, I put that stock on the back burner for a few days. Bad move. LOL.
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Thanks Mav for the clear explanation. :)

That is an interesting and useful pattern you describe there. I guess especially useful when the stock has made monthly A up early in the month like this case.
 
Quote from gmst:

Thanks Mav for the clear explanation. :)

That is an interesting and useful pattern you describe there. I guess especially useful when the stock has made monthly A up early in the month like this case.
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Why do you say that ? Useful.. how, so if it breaks out of ( where, what price0 your going to buy... and how much ?
 
Quote from MBC:

Why do you say that ? Useful.. how, so if it breaks out of ( where, what price0 your going to buy... and how much ?
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I am a stock newbie. Never traded it. My main experience is in fx. So, any tid-bit of wisdom I pick up on stocks is useful to me, especially if it is coming from a senior guy like Mav.

I really don't know the answer to your question as to what price I would have bought it. How much I would have bought - Yes, I can determine that by deciding on a stop looking at a chart and then depending on distance between entry and stop, will derive the # of shares to buy, so as to risk 1-2% on the trade.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

Maverick74,

For week of Dec. 19th-23rd, your weekly level for CL was 96.47 along with monthly A down level of 95.38.

On December 14 th, CL closed at 95 and you posted monthly A down in CL is confirmed. Next 3 days price stayed below 95 and 4th day made up move and continued it's up move in coming days.

What's the time filter for monthly A down/ A up and weekly A down/ A up?

In terms of getting Bullish again after monthly A down, what's the hurdle an instrument need to clear? Close above weekly A up level?

I know you start every month from zero in terms of 30 days number line vs Fish cumulative number. Were your number lines negative over past week or so pointing towards high probability of monthly A down?

During this time period and past 2 weeks Fish cumulative number lines were positive as following

12/9, 12/12,12/13,12/14,12/15,12/16,12/19,12/20

19,16,15,11,11,8,6,6


Basically, I am trying to find if there is any relationship between weekly, monthly levels and 30 days number line. If 30 days number line can handicap weekly , monthly A up/ A down?

From Fish cumulative number line listed above, it certainly did not handicapped monthly A down very well.


What are monthly and weekly levels for CL for January?

Fish 30 days cumulative 30 days number line for Jan. are

01/03, 01/04, 01/05, 01/06, 01/09, 01/10, 01/11, 01/12, 01/13, 01/17, 01/18

3,5,5, -5,-7,-11, -9, -15, -13, -13, -15
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OK, let me get back to this post. Since I'm a price action trader, all the levels and their various time frames are meaningful to me only in the context of price action. I'm not an absolutist. Just because something is above the monthly A up does not mean I like it and vice versa. Levels simply attract my attention. It's my job to decipher whether a level has any meaning and if it does, how best to play it. So I look at monthly, weekly, intra-day and even Qtr levels. One is not any better or more important then the other. The number line also helps. But more importantly, I'm looking at relationships. So if crude is making a monthly A up, what else is or isn't. If Crude is the last risk asset to make an A up, not only am I not bullish on Crude, but I'm probably bearish! This is what I constantly talk on here about spreads and relationships and market tells and price action and how the market is responding to news. All these things are important. I can't just get bullish because price crossed some arbitrary line.
 
Quote from Quon:

FCX beat, but down. Looking for a pullback to the weekly OR, (confirmed weekly A up yesterday).

F above weekly A up. XLF above Monthly.
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FCX nice failed A down today at 43.50. Did you pick up any yet?
 
Quote from Maverick74:

OK, let me get back to this post. Since I'm a price action trader, all the levels and their various time frames are meaningful to me only in the context of price action. I'm not an absolutist. Just because something is above the monthly A up does not mean I like it and vice versa. Levels simply attract my attention. It's my job to decipher whether a level has any meaning and if it does, how best to play it. So I look at monthly, weekly, intra-day and even Qtr levels. One is not any better or more important then the other. The number line also helps. But more importantly, I'm looking at relationships. So if crude is making a monthly A up, what else is or isn't. If Crude is the last risk asset to make an A up, not only am I not bullish on Crude, but I'm probably bearish! This is what I constantly talk on here about spreads and relationships and market tells and price action and how the market is responding to news. All these things are important. I can't just get bullish because price crossed some arbitrary line.
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1) Makes sense. Just clarify following.

2) When CL made monthly A down., you posted you will not touch cl. Is there a time filter for confirmation or not for weekly/monthly A up A down levels? for example for my daily OR , i have 45 minutes OR and time filter of 22 minutes.

2) from your post, it looks like as long as price closed below monthly A down level, it is monthly A down. I just wanted to confirm.

3) So, 30 days number lines are helpful but not really? As 30 days number line during that time period shows they were all positive and healthy numbers but we had monthly A down.

4) for day trading, after A down, if price get back to OR high and makes an A up, i turn bullish. Is there such a thing for weekly and monthly A up/ A down? If we had monthly A down in December, did we made monthly C up in December? I am looking for guidelines for Monthly/ Weekly C ups etc..

5) I am sure if CL is above monthly A up and has a healthy 30 days number line, you will be all over it. Since, in December when we had monthly A down in CL but healthy 30 days number line, no need to get too bearish on CL- is the way i am looking at 30 days number line and weekly , monthly ACD set ups.


Anybody else who uses weekly , monthly ACD set ups , please share your thoughts. We do not want Maverick74 to Run away if he has to answer every question (lol)
 
Quote from Maverick74:

FCX nice failed A down today at 43.50. Did you pick up any yet?
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Not getting any messages from ET... weird... (hence my late response)

No, I didn't have a failed A down. Just a crummy range bound day. I did have a failed A up at 44.92 however.
 
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