The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

Yeah feel can go away really fast. If I miss a single day of trading, I feel completely lost when I come back. I talked about this a few weeks back when I mentioned I put more then 60 hours a week into this and some people asked..."doing what?" LOL. Watching the market! I don't how one could just casually glance at charts and news every now and then and ever expect to get any kind of feel.
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Don't know if you've seen this before, but think its a good watch for anyone who hasn't:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QpBQhwl3dE

It's about a trader that traded futures out of Australia.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

MF subscription service gives 30 days number line for lot of futures, so i am set in terms of futures.

I am trying to get 30 days number line for stocks as i find it difficult to keep track of stocks with daily, weekly, monthly A up/ A down levels.

Now, a stock will only get +ve number if it passes TIME filter test. Just touching A up or A level does not mean a thing unless it stays above A up level for 1/2 of OR- as an example.

I am not sure without automation how one can keep track of lets say 30 stocks basket.
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As I mentioned this is my next project. Its with Tradestation though. I can share this with you if it comes to fruition.
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

MF subscription service gives 30 days number line for lot of futures, so i am set in terms of futures.

I am trying to get 30 days number line for stocks as i find it difficult to keep track of stocks with daily, weekly, monthly A up/ A down levels.

Now, a stock will only get +ve number if it passes TIME filter test. Just touching A up or A level does not mean a thing unless it stays above A up level for 1/2 of OR- as an example.

I am not sure without automation how one can keep track of lets say 30 stocks basket.
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Absolutely, no doubt, (with regard to the time factor) but what I'm saying, is that sometimes you get the time confirmation and then stocks retrace. Again, think of it this way; do you really want the program to assign a +2 to a stock that confirms an A up and then closes 1 tick above the OR by the end of the day?

Here's a pretty easy way to keep track of the market without needing to track the "ten-thousand-things" as Lao Tse would say. Track the sector ETFs that are most significant to you. Some use 9, others use 16, you can use as many or few as you like. This way you're only tracking the number line of 9-16 instruments at the end of each day, (takes just a few minutes at the close). Then scout the top sector for the strongest individual stocks. I posted earlier today that the XLB is rocking with a +13. So I go shopping in the XLB. I like FCX, DD, DOW, PX right now. I do the work to see who's the strongest there, and that's who I look to buy. Maybe a few look really good, maybe only one stands out, (like BMY Oct - Dec).

Just be sure you know what affects each. We stayed clear of FCX today because it reports in the AM. DOW, DD, and PX are no doubt currently buoyed by the drop in Nat Gas, (watch Nat Gas if you trade chemicals). So on and so forth.
 
Quote from Quon:

Absolutely, no doubt, (with regard to the time factor) but what I'm saying, is that sometimes you get the time confirmation and then stocks retrace. Again, think of it this way; do you really want the program to assign a +2 to a stock that confirms an A up and then closes 1 tick above the OR by the end of the day?

Here's a pretty easy way to keep track of the market without needing to track the "ten-thousand-things" as Lao Tse would say. Track the sector ETFs that are most significant to you. Some use 9, others use 16, you can use as many or few as you like. This way you're only tracking the number line of 9-16 instruments at the end of each day, (takes just a few minutes at the close). Then scout the top sector for the strongest individual stocks. I posted earlier today that the XLB is rocking with a +13. So I go shopping in the XLB. I like FCX, DD, DOW, PX right now. I do the work to see who's the strongest there, and that's who I look to buy. Maybe a few look really good, maybe only one stands out, (like BMY Oct - Dec).

Just be sure you know what affects each. We stayed clear of FCX today because it reports in the AM. DOW, DD, and PX are no doubt currently buoyed by the drop in Nat Gas, (watch Nat Gas if you trade chemicals). So on and so forth.
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Quon, you're a pretty clever chap. :)
 
Quote from Quon:

Do you really want to automate the 30 day number line though? Think about it. Instrument trades down early in the morning and comes within 3 ticks of your A down level. It doesn't penetrate the level however, and turns and runs to the A up, only to come off and settle 1 tick above the OR.

Now, a coded system is going to call that a +2 day, but I'd probably call it a +1 day. See what I mean? Let me break it down:

The "failed A down" isn't a failure to a coded system because it didn't touch/penetrate the threshold (your a down level). Does that mean that missing it by 3 ticks is not a failed A down? No, just means that a system without the ability to judge is going to say it is not a failed A down.

Next, the "confirmed A up" kinda sucked. It settled above the OR, so technically it should get a +2 right? In my opinion though, it sucked, and it gets nada to me. Might as well have closed in the OR.

So computer's count: +2 (confirmed A up, settles above OR)

My count: +1 (failed A down, settles "in" the OR)
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Yes and no. Here is what I mean.

Tradestation works in a user specified interval. You need to make sure that whatever your OR time is, that you are using a interval that is at least 1/2 that in your calculations . This allows more flexibility in telling the computer what is a failure vs a confirm. Here is an example..

8 minute OR.. therefore 4 min chart interval. (this allows creativity programming what consitutes a success vs failure)

confirmed A up = 2 consecutive 4 min bar closes above that A level.
Failure A up = either 1 or 2 consecutive bars whose high > A level, but both bars have closing < A level.

or a failure could be that the high of bar 1 is > Ap up, but close of bar 2 is less.

You could also program in a vicinity bar to where if the bar closed within a tiny fraction of a percent of the A UP, it constitutes a success..

THe bottom line is yes, there is subjectivity, but there is going to be subjectivity manually eyeballing it also. The same way there is no "magical A levels", there is nothing magical about spending 1/2 the time of the OR above the A up..

THe hard part to me is that there are so many different scenarios, you need to make sure they dont overlaps each other with crieria.. Hypothetically if you arent careful, you could be having a single days behavior flagging 2 different scenarios.. Especially since Fisher uses periods of the trading day as requirments for when the behavior occurs..

But it is doable, you just have to be careful. Honestly the only reason I am considering doing it is b/c I want a tool that can help me focus my attention on a handful of stocks.. This to me is one of the biggest challenges of stocks..
 
Quote from Quon:

Here's a pretty easy way to keep track of the market without needing to track the "ten-thousand-things" as Lao Tse would say. Track the sector ETFs that are most significant to you. Some use 9, others use 16, you can use as many or few as you like. This way you're only tracking the number line of 9-16 instruments at the end of each day, (takes just a few minutes at the close). Then scout the top sector for the strongest individual stocks. I posted earlier today that the XLB is rocking with a +13. So I go shopping in the XLB. I like FCX, DD, DOW, PX right now. I do the work to see who's the strongest there, and that's who I look to buy. Maybe a few look really good, maybe only one stands out, (like BMY Oct - Dec).

Just be sure you know what affects each. We stayed clear of FCX today because it reports in the AM. DOW, DD, and PX are no doubt currently buoyed by the drop in Nat Gas, (watch Nat Gas if you trade chemicals). So on and so forth.
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Good idea.. You might have just saved me alot of time and money.. This makes a ton of sense...

You basically provided a common sense solution to my last post lol..
 
Maverick74,

For week of Dec. 19th-23rd, your weekly level for CL was 96.47 along with monthly A down level of 95.38.

On December 14 th, CL closed at 95 and you posted monthly A down in CL is confirmed. Next 3 days price stayed below 95 and 4th day made up move and continued it's up move in coming days.

What's the time filter for monthly A down/ A up and weekly A down/ A up?

In terms of getting Bullish again after monthly A down, what's the hurdle an instrument need to clear? Close above weekly A up level?

I know you start every month from zero in terms of 30 days number line vs Fish cumulative number. Were your number lines negative over past week or so pointing towards high probability of monthly A down?

During this time period and past 2 weeks Fish cumulative number lines were positive as following

12/9, 12/12,12/13,12/14,12/15,12/16,12/19,12/20

19,16,15,11,11,8,6,6


Basically, I am trying to find if there is any relationship between weekly, monthly levels and 30 days number line. If 30 days number line can handicap weekly , monthly A up/ A down?

From Fish cumulative number line listed above, it certainly did not handicapped monthly A down very well.


What are monthly and weekly levels for CL for January?

Fish 30 days cumulative 30 days number line for Jan. are

01/03, 01/04, 01/05, 01/06, 01/09, 01/10, 01/11, 01/12, 01/13, 01/17, 01/18

3,5,5, -5,-7,-11, -9, -15, -13, -13, -15
 
Quote from mfbreakout:

Maverick74,

For week of Dec. 19th-23rd, your weekly level for CL was 96.47 along with monthly A down level of 95.38.

On December 14 th, CL closed at 95 and you posted monthly A down in CL is confirmed. Next 3 days price stayed below 95 and 4th day made up move and continued it's up move in coming days.

What's the time filter for monthly A down/ A up and weekly A down/ A up?

In terms of getting Bullish again after monthly A down, what's the hurdle an instrument need to clear? Close above weekly A up level?

I know you start every month from zero in terms of 30 days number line vs Fish cumulative number. Were your number lines negative over past week or so pointing towards high probability of monthly A down?

During this time period and past 2 weeks Fish cumulative number lines were positive as following

12/9, 12/12,12/13,12/14,12/15,12/16,12/19,12/20

19,16,15,11,11,8,6,6


Basically, I am trying to find if there is any relationship between weekly, monthly levels and 30 days number line. If 30 days number line can handicap weekly , monthly A up/ A down?

From Fish cumulative number line listed above, it certainly did not handicapped monthly A down very well.


What are monthly and weekly levels for CL for January?

Fish 30 days cumulative 30 days number line for Jan. are

01/03, 01/04, 01/05, 01/06, 01/09, 01/10, 01/11, 01/12, 01/13, 01/17, 01/18

3,5,5, -5,-7,-11, -9, -15, -13, -13, -15
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I'll get back to you on this sometime tomorrow. Just didn't want to leave you hanging.
 
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