Perfect failed A down in the ES today around 1274 then rally straight to the A up at 1285.50.
Market just refuses to sell off.
Market just refuses to sell off.
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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
Quote from Quon:
Just hoping we get SOME type of significant pull back next week. I'm dying watching this tape being as minimally involved as I am. I know, high quality problem, but still...
As long as something is breaking out on the upside I don't mind the rally. But when the indices go up every day and nothing is breaking out, it's hard to profit from it.
We are getting a lot of bad news/good action right now. If we take out 1300 next week this market might really take off. As in 1350 to 1370 in weeks.
I am copying this from smb capital blog. It's not related to ACD. It is more than ACD and may help some other traders.
After reading this, I am quite shaken as i am a one product trader with same very specific ACD set ups. Market conditions change, not every product provide trading opportunities every day etc.. SMB is a equity trading prop firm based in New York.
I have tried many times to come up with a system to trade only instruments which as Maverick74 like to say " fall in my lap" but i have not been able to.
Looking for suggestions how to do it. I don't want to end up like following trader.
"
Is it time to quit trading?
Jan 7th, 2012 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
Hey Bella,
Iâm a longtime reader of the SMB blogs. Trading from a home office, I miss out on all of the trading floor banter that I had when I was starting out. It is good to âconnectâ with other traders, even if it is only virtual. I read your book One Good Trade, while I was on Christmas vacation and there was a passage that shot right through me. The hairs on the back of my neck stood up, so I felt compelled to write you. The quote was:
âYou do not slip from trading successfully for five consecutive years to being unable to trade profitably anymore. That is, unless you get in your own way. But your skills are there. Now itâs time for you to compete.â
Let me summarize my approximate net results:
2004: +$10k
2005: +$90k
2006: +$125k
2007: +$175k
2008: +$240k
2009: +$9k
2010: -$3k
2011: -$2k
I applied to the SMB desk in late 2010 and interviewed with GMan & Steve, but was not selected for your desk. I had been hoping for a chance to get back on a trading floor. After that confidence-crusher I spent most of 2011 on the sidelines (I have a 2 & 3 year old which kind of forced my hand, day care being so expensive). So, to sum up, I was totally knocked flat on my butt.
I have really been struggling with a confidence issue. This is why your quote struck me. Iâm not sure if it is all in my head or if I am just chasing past years. On a deep fundamental level, I KNOW that I didnât just get lucky in those years. As you say, I had some skills that allowed me to post those results. And yet now it feels so elusive. I canât help wondering if it all was luck.
I guess my question, if there is one, is how do you KNOW there âis always an escapeâ? Maybe my head is just a basket case and I need to get it sorted out. I read once that when you get knocked out of the game, it is difficult to come back because it destroys your âmental & emotional capitalâ. Such intangibles are difficult, if not impossible to get back. I can identify as I most definitely feel like a failure. But how long is too long to sit and net scratch for an entire year? 1? 2? 3? It is getting old. Maybe I am a washed-up has-been. In some ways it would be much easier if I could point to a single blowup trade where I blew out my account. At least then I could walk away. But I didnât make a huge mistake. I didnât go down swinging. In some of the most volatile markets I kept my risk controlled and never blew up. Thatâs what makes it so hard for me to decide to walk away from trading, and why I havenât yet. How can I quit when I havenât struck out yet? I was patient and waited for the next pitch. Well, it seems I am still waiting, years later.
Sorry to clog your inbox with my nonsense. But I felt compelled to write and I feel better for having done so. I really enjoyed your book.
Bella
If you have made money consistently from the market in the past you can make money now and ten years from now. Particularly you. And my argument is all about how you define skill.
You do not slip from trading successfully for five consecutive years to being unable to trade profitably anymore. That is, unless you get in your own way. But your skills are there. Now itâs time for you to compete. One Good Trade
The skills that I refer to in One Good Trade are not just the trading skills you developed. You have a more important skill. You have the personal skill of being able to be successful. This is a skill far superior to chart expertise or advanced tape reading.
You did not start during the easiest of times to begin your career. 04 was not a great trading year. It was not 07 08 99 2000. Yet you found a way to succeed. With no trading skills you were able to learn how to build the skills to make money. This is extraordinary. You were the 5 percent.
I have written often in the past that many are capable of becoming a successful trader. There is work to do that builds trading skill and if you do that work then you will find out how good you can be. The slogan of SMB Training is: How good can you be? Not: We will make you rich. This is a game of elite performance. Honestly very few will have a passion for trading to sustain the energy required to do the work necessary to play at the highest level. You are not a bad person, untalented, unintelligent, or lazy if you fail as a trader. It is just not your thing. Or better said- the trading you did, at that time of your life, at the place you did it at, was not your thing.
Given your past results you should have made more in 09. This coincides with the best thing that could ever happen to you, your new child. But also a gift that brings more responsibility, less time to work on your game, and more pressure. Did you lose your passion? Have you made the adjustments necessary from this life change to continue your trading success?
We teach our traders very differently than we did in 07 and 08. The momentum trading that was so effective in 07 and 08 is deemphasized. We ask our traders to create their own trading playbooks of set ups that make the most sense to them. We encourage SMB traders to expand their time frame and concentrate on trending stocks. Have you made adjustments to your trading as this new market rewards different set ups?
It is up to you when to call it a career. And how you manage your family is not for this blogger from afar. Since your wrote to me, personally as someone recently married who hopes to have children, I would not be 3 years into being a father without making money- unless my wife and/or I were independently wealthy. Trading is not worth financial insecurity for your family.
Having said all that, there is going to be a new path to being a sustaining, successful independent trader that is more than just the development as an intraday equity trader. The days of sit down and JUST learn to be a discretionary intraday equity trader are gone for almost all. This is still the best place to start your trading career for many reasons. This is still the best way to build your trading foundation. But this will not be the beginning and the end anymore for the new and developing trader.
The trading world has changed. Itâs both harder and more opportunistic. I will write more about this in the coming months.
Bella
One Good Trade
After reading this, I am quite shaken as i am a one product trader with same very specific ACD set ups. Market conditions change, not every product provide trading opportunities every day etc.. SMB is a equity trading prop firm based in New York.
I have tried many times to come up with a system to trade only instruments which as Maverick74 like to say " fall in my lap" but i have not been able to.
Looking for suggestions how to do it. I don't want to end up like following trader.
"
Is it time to quit trading?
Jan 7th, 2012 | By Bella | Category: Mike Bellafiore's (Bella's) Blogs
Hey Bella,
Iâm a longtime reader of the SMB blogs. Trading from a home office, I miss out on all of the trading floor banter that I had when I was starting out. It is good to âconnectâ with other traders, even if it is only virtual. I read your book One Good Trade, while I was on Christmas vacation and there was a passage that shot right through me. The hairs on the back of my neck stood up, so I felt compelled to write you. The quote was:
âYou do not slip from trading successfully for five consecutive years to being unable to trade profitably anymore. That is, unless you get in your own way. But your skills are there. Now itâs time for you to compete.â
Let me summarize my approximate net results:
2004: +$10k
2005: +$90k
2006: +$125k
2007: +$175k
2008: +$240k
2009: +$9k
2010: -$3k
2011: -$2k
I applied to the SMB desk in late 2010 and interviewed with GMan & Steve, but was not selected for your desk. I had been hoping for a chance to get back on a trading floor. After that confidence-crusher I spent most of 2011 on the sidelines (I have a 2 & 3 year old which kind of forced my hand, day care being so expensive). So, to sum up, I was totally knocked flat on my butt.
I have really been struggling with a confidence issue. This is why your quote struck me. Iâm not sure if it is all in my head or if I am just chasing past years. On a deep fundamental level, I KNOW that I didnât just get lucky in those years. As you say, I had some skills that allowed me to post those results. And yet now it feels so elusive. I canât help wondering if it all was luck.
I guess my question, if there is one, is how do you KNOW there âis always an escapeâ? Maybe my head is just a basket case and I need to get it sorted out. I read once that when you get knocked out of the game, it is difficult to come back because it destroys your âmental & emotional capitalâ. Such intangibles are difficult, if not impossible to get back. I can identify as I most definitely feel like a failure. But how long is too long to sit and net scratch for an entire year? 1? 2? 3? It is getting old. Maybe I am a washed-up has-been. In some ways it would be much easier if I could point to a single blowup trade where I blew out my account. At least then I could walk away. But I didnât make a huge mistake. I didnât go down swinging. In some of the most volatile markets I kept my risk controlled and never blew up. Thatâs what makes it so hard for me to decide to walk away from trading, and why I havenât yet. How can I quit when I havenât struck out yet? I was patient and waited for the next pitch. Well, it seems I am still waiting, years later.
Sorry to clog your inbox with my nonsense. But I felt compelled to write and I feel better for having done so. I really enjoyed your book.
Bella
If you have made money consistently from the market in the past you can make money now and ten years from now. Particularly you. And my argument is all about how you define skill.
You do not slip from trading successfully for five consecutive years to being unable to trade profitably anymore. That is, unless you get in your own way. But your skills are there. Now itâs time for you to compete. One Good Trade
The skills that I refer to in One Good Trade are not just the trading skills you developed. You have a more important skill. You have the personal skill of being able to be successful. This is a skill far superior to chart expertise or advanced tape reading.
You did not start during the easiest of times to begin your career. 04 was not a great trading year. It was not 07 08 99 2000. Yet you found a way to succeed. With no trading skills you were able to learn how to build the skills to make money. This is extraordinary. You were the 5 percent.
I have written often in the past that many are capable of becoming a successful trader. There is work to do that builds trading skill and if you do that work then you will find out how good you can be. The slogan of SMB Training is: How good can you be? Not: We will make you rich. This is a game of elite performance. Honestly very few will have a passion for trading to sustain the energy required to do the work necessary to play at the highest level. You are not a bad person, untalented, unintelligent, or lazy if you fail as a trader. It is just not your thing. Or better said- the trading you did, at that time of your life, at the place you did it at, was not your thing.
Given your past results you should have made more in 09. This coincides with the best thing that could ever happen to you, your new child. But also a gift that brings more responsibility, less time to work on your game, and more pressure. Did you lose your passion? Have you made the adjustments necessary from this life change to continue your trading success?
We teach our traders very differently than we did in 07 and 08. The momentum trading that was so effective in 07 and 08 is deemphasized. We ask our traders to create their own trading playbooks of set ups that make the most sense to them. We encourage SMB traders to expand their time frame and concentrate on trending stocks. Have you made adjustments to your trading as this new market rewards different set ups?
It is up to you when to call it a career. And how you manage your family is not for this blogger from afar. Since your wrote to me, personally as someone recently married who hopes to have children, I would not be 3 years into being a father without making money- unless my wife and/or I were independently wealthy. Trading is not worth financial insecurity for your family.
Having said all that, there is going to be a new path to being a sustaining, successful independent trader that is more than just the development as an intraday equity trader. The days of sit down and JUST learn to be a discretionary intraday equity trader are gone for almost all. This is still the best place to start your trading career for many reasons. This is still the best way to build your trading foundation. But this will not be the beginning and the end anymore for the new and developing trader.
The trading world has changed. Itâs both harder and more opportunistic. I will write more about this in the coming months.
Bella
One Good Trade
My post from SMB blog should also give material to traders who are LUCKY to be working full time and trading around their work schedule to THINK DEEP.
I often run into traders who are working full time and can not wait to QUIT their jobs and trade full time.
Making money 4-6 months does not mean to quit job and become a full time trader. If one thinks he/she can be successful, my recommendation will be to apply for a job at prop. firm and see if you can make it.
One , does not have to work for prop firm but selection process at most good firms is a pretty good indicator if one is ready or not.
Another recommendation would be to have as much trading CAPITAL as possible, so one can trade without LEVERAGE .
I often run into traders who are working full time and can not wait to QUIT their jobs and trade full time.
Making money 4-6 months does not mean to quit job and become a full time trader. If one thinks he/she can be successful, my recommendation will be to apply for a job at prop. firm and see if you can make it.
One , does not have to work for prop firm but selection process at most good firms is a pretty good indicator if one is ready or not.
Another recommendation would be to have as much trading CAPITAL as possible, so one can trade without LEVERAGE .
Quote from mfbreakout:
My post from SMB blog should also give material to traders who are LUCKY to be working full time and trading around their work schedule to THINK DEEP.
I often run into traders who are working full time and can not wait to QUIT their jobs and trade full time.
Making money 4-6 months does not mean to quit job and become a full time trader. If one thinks he/she can be successful, my recommendation will be to apply for a job at prop. firm and see if you can make it.
One , does not have to work for prop firm but selection process at most good firms is a pretty good indicator if one is ready or not.
Another recommendation would be to have as much trading CAPITAL as possible, so one can trade without LEVERAGE .
Thanks for the posts, excellent
Natty Gas gaps down another 4% tonight. No bottom in sight.
Quote from mfbreakout:
Another recommendation would be to have as much trading CAPITAL as possible, so one can trade without LEVERAGE .
Agreed.
The leverage is the reason why I'm not yet trading futures with real money, despite the fact that I'm turning profits swing trading ETFs in my unleveraged stock account.
It seems leverage really raises the bar tremendously when it comes to the skill and precision required to make money. Maverick said earlier in the thread, it speeds up the game a lot. It definitely changes the game because you can't take any heat when you're overleveraged, and that effects your trade management and can drastically change trading results. Just my own personal observations.
But MF, if you're having success why assume you are destined to end up like the guy in that blog post? Maybe you'll continue to reap rewards. In any case, as long as you don't spend all your profits you'll be able to grow your account and trade with less leverage in the future and therefore reduce your risk...
I look forward to being skilled enough to trade with leverage, but my goal would be to use it to build my capital to a point where I can start reducing leverage and eventually eliminate it.
Quote from dv4632:
Agreed.
The leverage is the reason why I'm not yet trading futures with real money, despite the fact that I'm turning profits swing trading ETFs in my unleveraged stock account.
It seems leverage really raises the bar tremendously when it comes to the skill and precision required to make money. Maverick said earlier in the thread, it speeds up the game a lot. It definitely changes the game because you can't take any heat when you're overleveraged, and that effects your trade management and can drastically change trading results. Just my own personal observations.
But MF, if you're having success why assume you are destined to end up like the guy in that blog post? Maybe you'll continue to reap rewards. In any case, as long as you don't spend all your profits you'll be able to grow your account and trade with less leverage in the future and therefore reduce your risk...
I look forward to being skilled enough to trade with leverage, but my goal would be to use it to build my capital to a point where I can start reducing leverage and eventually eliminate it.
Hi DV 4623.
Futures are LEVERAGED to begin with by adding leverage to ones EQUITY, it becomes very difficult in my opinion. Plus trading from home without institutional support for development, new ideas etc.. can make one comfortable and by the time one realize that one has to change it is too late. As Bella said in closing remarks
" successful independent trader that is more than just the development as an intraday equity trader. The days of sit down and JUST learn to be a discretionary intraday equity trader are gone for almost all. This is still the best place to start your trading career for many reasons. This is still the best way to build your trading foundation. But this will not be the beginning and the end anymore for the new and developing trader."
Thus, I have decided to start looking for opportunities to join a prop firm.