The ACD Method

Quote from Maverick74:

Btw, this is a major mea culpa on my part. A great example for you youngsters out there on how NOT to trade. I do make these mistakes from time to time. :)
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But Mav I would say you took your chance based on your years of experience. You didn't expect such a run-up, did you ?

Or, do you think it was a misjudgement on your part to sell NFLX before it ran its course?
 
Quote from Maverick74:

So here is how you chase something that you let you go of prematurely. I'll look to pick this thing up on any intra-day A down or possibly a failed weekly A down next week. It would need to come 14 pts for me to grab the weekly A down this week. But there will be 4 chances to get in at the intra-day A down this week. I would normally take it on the weekly breakout but this thing looks like a hard short squeeze. You need to be careful of buying the highs here.
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Mav, this is awesome. I've been trying to determine something of a set of rules for "buying back" when I'm pissed I dumped while it's working. I really appreciate this post.
 
Quote from gmst:

But Mav I would say you took your chance based on your years of experience. You didn't expect such a run-up, did you ?

Or, do you think it was a misjudgement on your part to sell NFLX before it ran its course?
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It was a major blunder on my part. I wasn't selling it because I thought the move was over. This thing is going to 150. I sold it to try to get it back a few pts cheaper this week on a failed weekly A down. I've just been growing tired of these 3 pt rallies in ES everyday. I was thinking we could wash some of the late bulls off the train and then ramp it up. There is no excuse on my part and it's why I'm putting this trade on this thread so others can learn from it. I make these mistakes from time to time. The way you get over it is by jumping all over the next trade. Kind of like going on a bad date. You forget it but going on another one. The annoying thing about this is that there are no other breakouts right now. So I have to sit here and watch the one legitimate breakout run while everything else crawls up and down .10.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

It was a major blunder on my part. I wasn't selling it because I thought the move was over. This thing is going to 150. I sold it to try to get it back a few pts cheaper this week on a failed weekly A down. I've just been growing tired of these 3 pt rallies in ES everyday. I was thinking we could wash some of the late bulls off the train and then ramp it up. There is no excuse on my part and it's why I'm putting this trade on this thread so others can learn from it. I make these mistakes from time to time. The way you get over it is by jumping all over the next trade. Kind of like going on a bad date. You forget it but going on another one. The annoying thing about this is that there are no other breakouts right now. So I have to sit here and watch the one legitimate breakout run while everything else crawls up and down .10.
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Thanks Mav. So, you did the mistake that Livermore warned against. You lost your position :) And great that you are illustrating us here so that all of us can learn from it - in real time.
Btw, if you do expect it to run to 150, why not buy 150-180 call spread or outright directly, instead of the stock. 50% delta run along with (probably) vol expansion, should make for a good trade. No !! ??
 
Quote from gmst:

Thanks Mav. So, you did the mistake that Livermore warned against. You lost your position :) And great that you are illustrating us here so that all of us can learn from it - in real time.
Btw, if you do expect it to run to 150, why not buy 150-180 call spread or outright directly, instead of the stock. 50% delta run along with (probably) vol expansion, should make for a good trade. No !! ??
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I was long the risk reversals so I was long vol and it has exploded. I'll get it back. I just hope the vol comes in a little.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I was long the risk reversals so I was long vol and it has exploded. I'll get it back. I just hope the vol comes in a little.
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ok thanks, so you were long a call and short a put. correct? thats the way you talk about a RR in equities. If so, it also means you were short skew. Or, is the skew effect too little to consider in this case ? Again, Thanks.
 
Quote from gmst:

ok thanks, so you were long a call and short a put. correct? thats the way you talk about a RR in equities. If so, it also means you were short skew. Or, is the skew effect too little to consider in this case ? Again, Thanks.
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Correct. The skew was pretty flat though.
 
A up today in AAPL 427.70. Actual high was 427.75! Nice.

Moving towards the weekly A down at 420.94. Also failed at the monthly A up at 423.41.
 
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