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The ACD Method
- Thread starter sbrowne126
- Start date
The breakout in GOOG continues. GOOG is my dark horse pick in 2012. I think it makes new all time highs sometime this spring.
Just a comment from my personal experiences.
I don't trade full time, nor at a prop. My expectations reflect this. I won't make millions, I don't expect to. I do expect a decent return from my time & energy. I do make money equivalent to the time and energy invested in trading.
I work 24 hour shifts, 8 or 9 a month. That average 49 hours per week over the year. Also own a property management business with 3 other partners. Also own a cash flowing rental.
Point is that I put in the time to make these efforts successful. I get the success that I expect given what I put in to it.
Attempted to fun a friends % family commodity pool years ago. We failed because we couldn't put in enough time & energy (licenses, taxes, audits, compliance, regulations, etc - all in addition to actually trading the account).
I guess my point is that you may be "successful" putting in a few hours a week trading, provided your measurement of success is realistic.
I don't trade full time, nor at a prop. My expectations reflect this. I won't make millions, I don't expect to. I do expect a decent return from my time & energy. I do make money equivalent to the time and energy invested in trading.
I work 24 hour shifts, 8 or 9 a month. That average 49 hours per week over the year. Also own a property management business with 3 other partners. Also own a cash flowing rental.
Point is that I put in the time to make these efforts successful. I get the success that I expect given what I put in to it.
Attempted to fun a friends % family commodity pool years ago. We failed because we couldn't put in enough time & energy (licenses, taxes, audits, compliance, regulations, etc - all in addition to actually trading the account).
I guess my point is that you may be "successful" putting in a few hours a week trading, provided your measurement of success is realistic.
I would say it is the red queen effect.
It takes all the running you can do to stay in the same place.
The longevity of an edge seems to be proportional to
the size of the barrier of entry to it.
To stay at the top you need to either be among the first to uncover
and exploit new edges as they become available and old ones expire.
Or you need to expend considerable resources and develop
the expertise required to access a high barrier of entry edge.
The entrenched players will not look kindly on you trying to eat
some of their lunch.
It takes all the running you can do to stay in the same place.
The longevity of an edge seems to be proportional to
the size of the barrier of entry to it.
To stay at the top you need to either be among the first to uncover
and exploit new edges as they become available and old ones expire.
Or you need to expend considerable resources and develop
the expertise required to access a high barrier of entry edge.
The entrenched players will not look kindly on you trying to eat
some of their lunch.
Quote from Maverick74:
I understand this works for you with your limited amount of data points. But let me play devil's advocate. Let's say you are making a meaningful return doing this. Hell, any positive return above the risk free interest rate. Why would any hedge fund or prop firm spend millions of hours working at this if they could run a 3 hour a day 5 day a week operation and generate edge?
This is not directed at you personally. I always ask guys this as a way to think about what they are doing. I use to ask guys who told me they would make 50% a year trading iron condors why no hedge funds or investment banks trade them and make 50% a year. Why do they hire 1000's of quants to make 12% a year if making 50% a year is so easy trading condors. I never would get an answer.
I know a lot of guys in this business that don't know what their kids and wife look like because they work so hard trying to eek out a few extra basis pts a year. If one could trade 3 hours a day and generate some edge, I would think most if not the entire industry would do it. Just something to think about. I ask myself this question all the time.