The ACD Method

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

No, using ACD actually STRENGTHENS this type of trading.

And Shan, speaking of perceived edges, is blackjack gambling?

Blackjack can be gambling. If you learn basic strategy you can reduce the house's edge to about 1.5%. If you learn Thorp's high low method I believe you can get the edge down to about .5%. Back in the 1960's when Thorp did it, he could actually get the edge to .5% in his favor, but now dealers don't deal to the end of the deck. Because of that, even with "perfect" basic strategy and high low, the edge is still slightly in favor of the house.

The guys from MIT that were featured in the book "21" actually concocted a scheme where they table counted many tables and were able to get the edge slightly in their favor by only playing certain tables when the deck count was strongly in their favor. They needed a large team to pull this off and needed to play tens of thousands of hands to make any kind of decent money. A single player does not have the edge though.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Ron, it doesn't bruise my ego. I have been doing this for a living for 15 years in both New York and Chicago. I take this profession pretty seriously and it's probably why I have been successful at it. I guess if everything in life is a gamble then why not trading. You can call it whatever you want. For those of us that make a living doing it, we call it our profession.

If you have an edge and place enough trades, the probabilities will work in your favor. I highly doubt you catch "every" move. I catch maybe 5% of the moves and make a good living doing this. I never think of trading as "catching big moves". I'm not sure what that is. I trade for money. I try to make money every single month and every single year. It's boring, tedious, non sexy, but profitable. But then again, I'm more of a market neutral trader so I'm just looking for edge.

Ron, if you ever come to Chicago sometime, I'll show you some guys that make money every single day, day in and day out. It's amazing what people are doing when you see what trading really is. "Not catching moves", but trading. We work really hard at it. I put in 60 to 70 hours a week. Most trading operations here in the city run 24/7 around the clock 252 trading days a year. It's a business to us Ron, and it works.

If I offended I do apologize. I am a directional trader ( of course), and I do not trade spreads. I do not make money every calendar day. Nor every calendar week.

Somehow tho, my account grows from clicking this mouse. I only draw a few lines, but it seems to work. I did spend my 10000 hours trading and coding and was very ticked, at first, that something I had already learned, was what I was leaving out to smooth out my profit curve.

Fisher get the credit for writing the book, you get the credit for keeping this thread up for the several weeks I skipped over it till I finally clicked on it.

It's 2012, time to keep the peace. For me, anyways.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

Blackjack can be gambling. If you learn basic strategy you can reduce the house's edge to about 1.5%. If you learn Thorp's high low method I believe you can get the edge down to about .5%. Back in the 1960's when Thorp did it, he could actually get the edge to .5% in his favor, but now dealers don't deal to the end of the deck. Because of that, even with "perfect" basic strategy and high low, the edge is still slightly in favor of the house.

The guys from MIT that were featured in the book "21" actually concocted a scheme where they table counted many tables and were able to get the edge slightly in their favor by only playing certain tables when the deck count was strongly in their favor. They needed a large team to pull this off and needed to play tens of thousands of hands to make any kind of decent money. A single player does not have the edge though.

I see you have done your homework. Good response.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

I see you have done your homework. Good response.

Ron, when you interview here in Chicago, you need to know this stuff down cold. I know all the ins and outs on black jack. I also know how Vegas runs their sports books and how they handicap sports. All this stuff is out there for anyone willing to learn and I have spent most of my adult life learning Ron. That's why I do this for a living.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

If I offended I do apologize. I am a directional trader ( of course), and I do not trade spreads. I do not make money every calendar day. Nor every calendar week.

Somehow tho, my account grows from clicking this mouse. I only draw a few lines, but it seems to work. I did spend my 10000 hours trading and coding and was very ticked, at first, that something I had already learned, was what I was leaving out to smooth out my profit curve.

Fisher get the credit for writing the book, you get the credit for keeping this thread up for the several weeks I skipped over it till I finally clicked on it.

It's 2012, time to keep the peace. For me, anyways.

No Ron, you did not offend me. It's just when you say things on here that aren't true, or shall I say can be misconstrued, I want to clarify them. A lot of people read this thread Ron. I get e-mails every day. So when you post something, it's not going out to just me, it's going out to thousands of traders who read this thread. Many kids are in college right now thinking of becoming traders. Or maybe there are people who lost their jobs or are thinking of quitting their jobs to become traders. It's my job as a poster on this thread to be as fair about this as I can. Just as I was when guys called me to work at my prop firm. I talked a lot of people out of trading. Not by telling them not to do it, but by giving them the facts.

So when I post on here, I'm very cognitive of the words I use because my words mean something to the readers of this thread. I don't want anyone trying to do this because I "make it look easy" or make ACD to be out this holy grail that will just print money for people.

I know this business inside and out Ron. I've seen the numbers being in the prop industry for a decade. I know what the failure rates are. I know why guys fail. I know why guys succeed. And for the record, nobody makes a living catching moves. LOL. Like you said, this business is a process. I personally have never met anyone that makes a consistent living putting in less then 60 hours a week. I'm not saying they aren't out there, just saying I have not personally met them. This is a business. Not a hobby. Nobody should be trading for fun or trading on the side or trading for a little extra money, all the stuff I read on ET. This is a business and should be treated like one. Not a gamble.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Maverick74:

No Ron, you did not offend me. It's just when you say things on here that aren't true, or shall I say can be misconstrued, I want to clarify them. A lot of people read this thread Ron. I get e-mails every day. So when you post something, it's not going out to just me, it's going out to thousands of traders who read this thread. Many kids are in college right now thinking of becoming traders. Or maybe there are people who lost their jobs or are thinking of quitting their jobs to become traders. It's my job as a poster on this thread to be as fair about this as I can. Just as I was when guys called me to work at my prop firm. I talked a lot of people out of trading. Not by telling them not to do it, but by giving them the facts.

So when I post on here, I'm very cognitive of the words I use because my words mean something to the readers of this thread. I don't want anyone trying to do this because I "make it look easy" or make ACD to be out this holy grail that will just print money for people.

I know this business inside and out Ron. I've seen the numbers being in the prop industry for a decade. I know what the failure rates are. I know why guys fail. I know why guys succeed. And for the record, nobody makes a living catching moves. LOL. Like you said, this business is a process. I personally have never met anyone that makes a consistent living putting in less then 60 hours a week. I'm not saying they aren't out there, just saying I have not personally met them. This is a business. Not a hobby. Nobody should be trading for fun or trading on the side or trading for a little extra money, all the stuff I read on ET. This is a business and should be treated like one. Not a gamble.

I made the posts regarding process that I needed to make insomuch as people reading this thread are concerned. 2012 will be fun, have a Happy New Year!

 

[Shazbatz30]

Quote from Maverick74:

There have been studies done over the years that shows momentum in itself is an edge. The edge being that momentum moves are not random.

Actually, this is the beauty of the markets, and what seperates them from any other gambling arena. This is why I laugh when people compare trading to poker, or other types of gambling.

I don't trade full-time, but when I try to explain this momentum concept to blue collar people at work they just don't understand it. I guess one really needs to analyze markets and charts to see it. It took me years to see the simplicity of it.

Although I believe I could trade for a living, I happen to be one of the laziest motherfuckers on this planet, and almost always seek the path of least resistance to get through life. I also feel that i'm not greedy enough. I'm sort of a minimalist. It would be very very hard for me to quit my job and trade full-time. I'm pretty fucked in the head

 

[Shanb]

The last day of 2011 is here! Time flies...2011 was big change for me. From moving to Chicago and getting in to full time trading. Meeting my now-friend John and participating in this thread. I've learned so much and I know the regulars in this thread have too.

Looking forward to 2012 and to keep pushing forward! I wish everyone peace and prosperity in the new year

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from RCG Trader:

I made the posts regarding process that I needed to make insomuch as people reading this thread are concerned. 2012 will be fun, have a Happy New Year!

"There is no "next level" to being a professional gambler, which is what full time traders are. Wins and losses are a matter of scale, nothing more. "

RCG

Happy New Year Ron!

 

[gptrader]

To all of the contributors on this great thread, Have a great New Year.